Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,960 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.7% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Xavier @ Butler
Butler’s at home, Xavier hasn’t played since before Christmas…Butler’s without Ty Groce (and possibly others), but Xavier might also be without a few guys. We haven’t heard anything to suggest that, but given the prevalence of Covid right now, what I’m basically saying is that injuries mean a little less than normal, because they’re happening in a pool that’s larger on average. That doesn’t mean you should overly discount Groce’s absence (and it would be easy to overdo it with this), but it does probably shave off a few fractions of a point from the true odds.
Anyway, thin college basketball board tonight but this is worth a shot if you don’t mind a little risk. Best we can offer.
Pick: Butler to win +215. Low confidence.
