Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,990 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.5% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Boise State @ Fresno State
Put a pin in Boise State, and for that matter, put one in Fresno State as well. Boise State’s one of the best defensive teams in the country, and with their possession-limiting tempo has the ingredients to make March hell for a pair of top-20 teams the first weekend. Winners of 13 straight, the Broncos lead the Mountain West and have already beaten San Diego State on the road, so while their tournament case is held back by a terrible loss to Cal State-Bakersfield and three other disappointing losses, they’ve got some wins to their name, and more might be on the way.
Fresno State lacks Boise’s defensive heft, but they play an even slower tempo and, while further from the projected field at the moment, aren’t entirely out of the mix. They’ve got five more regular season games against projected tournament teams, two of which are on the road, and in the Mountain West tournament they figure to have opportunity after opportunity if they can keep winning.
As for tonight, though, we like the over. This is a low, low total, and while Boise State hasn’t topped 65 in any of its last four (and memorably played San Diego State to a 42-37 final last weekend), this should be close, and close games tend to pile up on points at the end as free throws come into play, like we saw last night in Saint Mary’s/San Francisco. We don’t love it, but we do like it.
Pick: Over 119 (-110). Low confidence.
