Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,976 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.8% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Michigan @ Illinois
It’s hard to say how much to love the spread here, but if you’re looking for a winner tonight, it’s hard to beat this one. There’s still the illusion that Illinois isn’t the clear Big Ten favorite, and while Michigan’s scary as a talented team down on its luck, this is about the hardest spot possible for Michigan to reverse its situation. It’s a big stretch for the Illini, who host Purdue on Monday and host Michigan State the following Tuesday. When it’s done, though, Illinois should be clearly atop the rubble, and that starts tonight.
Pick: Illinois to win -450. Medium confidence.
