Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,997 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.4% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Toledo @ Ball State
In our latest NIT Bracketology, the MAC’s a two-bid league, and while that probably won’t happen, because either Toledo or Ohio will more likely than not win the MAC Tournament, it’s a testament to just how good those teams are. They’re on par in terms of quality with Miami (the Florida one, for the MACtion fans in the room) and Florida State. They’re good teams.
Ball State is not a good team. But they’re the home team, and Toledo’s preparing for a visit from Ohio on Tuesday, opening the door for a potential trap tonight in Muncie (that was a fun phrase to write).
Still…we just don’t see it. Toledo’s the better team, and by a lot. Even if Ball State hangs around, Toledo can pull away at the end, and it’s not all that likely Ball State hangs around in the first place.
Pick: Toledo -8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
