Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 936 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
New York (NL) @ Atlanta
David Peterson, a first round pick in 2017, is not a bad prospect. The FanGraphs scouting report on him entering the year had him eighth in the Mets’ farm system, projecting him as a fourth or fifth starter over the long term. In other words, nothing to get too excited about, but the kind of starter you can expect to compete right away upon promotion.
Little should be made of debuts, but at the very least, they’re nice to get out of the way, and Peterson’s went well. Five and two-thirds innings. Three strikeouts. Two walks. Two earned runs. That it came against a respectable Red Sox offense helps too. Again, Peterson shouldn’t be expected to dominate in Atlanta today, but competition’s a reasonable request.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +115. Low confidence.
Oakland @ Seattle
Ramón Laureano has been mentioned in this space recently, but he’s worth mentioning again. 26 years old, with a 126 wRC+ in his first full season last year. The 2020 sample size is small, but it’s getting larger, now measuring 34 plate appearances. So far, so good. A 143 wRC+ over those eight games with a top-quartile xwOBA. Not bad for a center fielder, even one overshadowed by his division-mate to the south and his teammates in the infield.
Pick: Oakland to win -160. Low confidence.
Boston @ New York (AL)
We’ve gotten burned two straight nights on Red Sox picks, yet the numbers (the method is basically to check the FanGraphs projection, adjust it for their estimated overestimation of home-field advantage, and look for red flags) say to come back for more tonight.
On one hand, yes, it’s possible FanGraphs is overvaluing Boston. On the other, it’s possible the market is undervaluing them, potentially because they’re just so much worse than they’ve been in previous seasons.
For now, with the overall trajectory of these picks going well, and the odds as long as these are, it’s worth another shot, however it ends up.
Pick: Boston to win +190. Low confidence.
