A zero in the conference win column would stand out for a long time. Three more go-rounds to avoid that fate.
The Game
Iowa State vs. Texas, in Ames
The Time
6:00 PM Central Time
The Television
ESPN+
The Opponent
Texas is not what we thought they were. They’re a good team, but merely one in the Big 12 pack. They’re not the next one up behind Baylor, as they looked the last time Iowa State saw them.
The Numbers
I’m seeing a 12.5-point line and the over/under at 142.5. KenPom gives ISU a 15% chance to win and projects a final score of 77-66.
What Iowa State Needs to Do
This is the last home game of the season, and while it won’t present much of a home-court advantage, it’s also one of the last three shots at a conference win, so squeezing out any magic Hilton still might hold would be helpful.
Iowa State’s gotten better results of late, but not great results. They haven’t lost to a team by 40 in a while (the 33-point defeat to Kansas was almost three weeks ago now), but there hasn’t been a moment when ISU has been a clear favorite to win one.
As usual, defensive rebounding will be necessary to win, but the bigger issue will be finding a way to make shots. Texas’s shot defense, especially inside the arc, is strong. ISU may need to resort to gunning, as large as the downside is with that approach. Overall, it’s another night when the spread is so vast that just playing the Cyclones’ best game is all you can really ask out of the Cyclones. There isn’t one trick they can pull to win it. They just need to play their best. And with Rasir Bolton reportedly out, that’s going to be a lesser best than even this year’s standard.
