National signing day was yesterday in college football, meaning this year’s recruiting season is effectively complete. There are a few players here and there that haven’t signed yet—J.T. Tuimoloau, a defensive lineman and one of 247 Sports’s top three recruits nationally, is the most notable name unsigned. But for the purposes of evaluating Iowa State’s class, it’s pretty much over, and per 247 Sports, it’s a routine class for the Cyclones in the Matt Campbell era, which is to say it’s ranked between 40th and 60th nationally and between 6th and 8th in the Big 12.
Now, it’s on the worse end of those spectra. It’s 59th nationally. It’s 8th in the Big 12. But given how close it is to the norm, it’s fair to expect Iowa State’s talent level to be unchanged by this class. They’ll have players with comparable athleticism and size to the ones they’ve had the last few years.
This isn’t bad. But it’s also not great.
Since Campbell came to Ames, Iowa State has never lost to Oklahoma by more than ten points. They’ve beaten the Sooners twice. They’ve lost to them four times. It’s been a fairly even head-to-head series, especially when considering the 2019 game was decided by only a point. Iowa State has shown it can compete with Oklahoma in a game of football.
The problem is, Iowa State has yet to show it can compete with Oklahoma in a season of football.
Here’s what I mean:
To win the Big 12, which is the next step for the Iowa State program (and we say this appreciating what a next step the program’s arrived at), you don’t only need to beat Oklahoma. You need to beat everyone else. Iowa State can beat everyone else. But they haven’t done it all-at-once yet. This year was the closest they’ve come, and even this year, they lost to Oklahoma State (not to mention Louisiana-Lafayette, who was on par with the Big 12 pack) and they only edged Baylor, Texas, and TCU by a score each.
Matt Campbell’s development of players has been better than one could hope. His game-by-game success—attributable to both strategy and motivation, those things that can make a team of Iowa State’s talent hang with a team of Oklahoma’s—has been better than one could ask for. He’s doing a phenomenal job, and so far, Iowa State’s come a long way up. With how many key players are coming back this fall, the stage is set for what a professional team would call an all-in year.
But it’s going to be hard to win nine games again.
Let alone win a Big 12 title.
Iowa State gets only four home conference games this go-round. One of those is against Kansas. Thankfully, one’s against Oklahoma State—probably the safest bet beyond OU and ISU to finish in the top half of the standings—but Iowa State’s going to need to win in Waco. Iowa State’s going to need to win in Manhattan. Iowa State’s going to need to win in Morgantown. Iowa State’s going to need to win in Lubbock. And then, most difficultly, Iowa State’s going to need to win in Arlington, most likely against an Oklahoma team that will be peaking, because that’s what Oklahoma’s done routinely since the Big 12 got its championship game back.
If it were as simple as winning that game in Arlington, it’d be one thing: Yes, Oklahoma’s better, but we’ve got a one-in-three shot, or something like that. But getting there’s less likely than a coin toss, because the consistency of winning is tough to do when you’ve got to outguile everybody who isn’t Kansas since you’re either even with them or behind in terms of size and speed.
Which brings us to the real question here: How high can Matt Campbell take Iowa State?
There is plenty of room for another breakthrough. Win the Big 12 and who knows what could happen. See Lincoln Riley go to the NFL and who knows what could happen. But there’s room for that for a handful of the other teams in the league as well. Getting to where Iowa State’s gotten has been very, very hard. Getting beyond where they’ve gotten is going to be harder. Breaking through things like this recruiting wall are going to be the hardest.
Does this mean Iowa State can’t succeed if it isn’t recruiting alongside Alabama? No. Iowa State doesn’t need to go get five-stars from Florida, and from Georgia, and from California, and even from Texas. Iowa State, for this next step, doesn’t need to become a top ten recruiting program. Matt Campbell’s doing what he’s doing with 40th-60th-ranked classes. Imagine what he could do with 20th-40th-ranked ones.
We don’t know whether the Big 12 will continue its recent trend of Oklahoma dominating and a handful of non-KU teams fighting for the other place at the table. If it does, Iowa State could, under Campbell, probably claim that other place at the table for itself. Routinely. But doing that will require Matt Campbell to continue running the football program as well as he’s running it, and to improve the recruiting by a decent amount. Nothing transformational—again, Iowa State’s approach to recruiting is fine for achieving this next step—but improving the current model, so they can start to squeeze out Iowa and compete with Nebraska and Michigan and Wisconsin for regional subservience to Ohio State. Play the football they’ve been playing, but with slightly better players—better enough to beat Oklahoma State, and Baylor, and the current iteration of Texas (God help Iowa State if Steve Sarkisian works out).
This fall will likely be an inflection point for the Cyclones under Campbell. Win the Big 12, and a ceiling will have been broken, with perhaps the next one—staying power—to follow. Win nine games again but miss the Big 12 championship, and an opportunity will have been missed. Win ten or eleven games, and make the championship but don’t win it, and it could go either way.
We’ll see where it goes. It’s a joy for Iowa State that they’re here. But the pressure is on.
