Georgia entered last season ranked 1st in the country. Alabama was ranked 5th. Michigan was 9th (our Movelor system regrettably had the Wolverines 2nd), Florida State was 10th, Missouri was 11th, Utah was 12th, and a trio of Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Arizona led the next pack from the Big 12. Oklahoma was 16th. USC was a top-25 team.
Was every one of those teams a massive disappointment? It depends on your definition. Georgia never came within a possession of Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl’s second half. Missouri finished the season in the Music City Bowl. Failures? Not exactly. Successes? No. On the other end of the list, Oklahoma State didn’t win a single conference game. That was failure.
We say it a lot, but we say it for good reason: While the AP Poll is a questionable exercise once the season is underway (what does it rank?), its preseason edition has some predictive power. These experts do know who’s going to be good. Still, they miss. Sometimes—2019 LSU comes to mind—they can put together the pieces in hindsight. Sometimes—2024 Georgia—a team just doesn’t turn out the way their on-paper ingredients said they would.
That Georgia case is relevant ahead of tomorrow’s blockbuster tilt. It’s easy to get excited about #1 vs. #3, but the excitement is not what it was. This is a different era from when Vince Young and Colt McCoy squared off with Troy Smith. Back then, it was hard to see a path for the loser to make the national championship, and indeed those losers didn’t make the national championship. These days, Ohio State can lose twice, including embarrassingly in November to a Michigan team we just labeled a “massive disappointment,” and not only make the national championship but win it. We’re about to show you numbers that say the Buckeyes still have a 2-in-3 playoff chance with a loss, and that the number is 1-in-2 for the Longhorns if they’re the ones who fall. These stakes are low, and Ohio State in particular knows how low they are. More than anybody else, Ohio State knows that what matters to history is surviving Big Ten play in good enough shape to put it together at Christmas. Couple that with the unfortunate morning kickoff time (for most of the country), and I’m not sure #1 vs. #3 is the biggest game of the day, let alone the weekend. That’s sad. The 12-team playoff is a lot of fun, but that’s sad.
Still, I’m not sure the Monday (or Tuesday) morning quarterbacks are going to give enough credit to the weight of this game. It’s going to be easy to craft a “free play” narrative around it, in part because that’s what athletic directors are pressuring their conference commissioners to make happen. The AD’s bluff and say, We won’t schedule these big nonconference games if they might keep us out of the playoff, and the commissioners show up to their CFP meetings in a panic, trying to keep college football from eating itself by the tail. The Big Ten is going so far as proposing these games be formal exhibitions, designing playoff setups which in some cases would consider no nonconference games.
Thankfully, Tony Petitti’s TV rating autocracy has not yet arrived. This game is not an exhibition. Whoever loses this game will be in trouble. Despite their suits’ best efforts.
Is Texas Great, or Good?
Twelve Texas Longhorns were drafted in the 2025 NFL Draft, a group led by Kelvin Banks, Jahdae Barron, and Matthew Golden, each of whom went in the first round. Three defensive linemen followed, all drafted before the fifth round. Catalyst safety Andrew Mukuba and safety net tight end Gunnar Helm likewise were pros before the draft reached Saturday afternoon. Quinn Ewers is an afterthought on this list, and that says a lot. Steve Sarkisian thought the gap between Ewers and Arch Manning was so large that he hardly even mixed in Manning packages down the stretch last year. Manning rode the pine despite Ewers playing through two significant injuries. That’s not nothing.
It’s hard to retool when you lose that much production, and while Texas is one of the few programs who can do it, it’s the presence of Manning in the backfield which is keeping Texas clear from that narrative. Understandably, people like the last name Manning. Anthony Hill and Colin Simmons, both a part of Texas’s front seven, could believably turn out to be the two best defensive players in college football. But there’s newness around them, especially up the middle.
It should work out. Pete Kwiatkowski is among the best defensive coordinators in the game, and he’s got a lot of athletes to work with. Yet I can’t help wondering why Texas is #1. They’re not the most talented team in the country or their conference. They aren’t the reigning champions of the country or their conference. They’ve got even more newness on offense than they do on defense. I’d love to see it work—I live in Austin and have become a bit of a Longhorn sympathizer—but I think there’s a stir-craziness in the national media that’s inflated Texas’s hype. Texas has been so close to the national championship level these last two years. There’s no reason they shouldn’t eventually break through. Is “eventually” here, though? I struggle to see why it would be any more than it would have been last year.
Compared to Ohio State, Texas needs this win. In our model’s latest simulations, they’re a slight playoff underdog with an average loss. Their schedule’s aggressive, with games in Gainesville and Athens plus their usual rivalry slate. Here’s what our model’s giving us:
- Current playoff probability: 57%
- Playoff probability with a win: 85%
- Playoff probability with a loss: 47%
Win, and Texas should feel better about their playoff chances than anyone but possibly Notre Dame. Win, and Texas should feel pretty good about their SEC title chances, even if it ends up taking two tries to beat Georgia. Win, and Texas should like the best team in the country. For August, they probably are.
Is This Ohio State’s Preseason?
By the time December rolls around, though…
Here’s the thing about Julian Sayin: He was a very good recruit. A five-star recruit. Ryan Day’s had a weird last pair of quarterbacks, but before Kyle McCord and Will Howard (one of whom won a national championship), the list goes: CJ Stroud, Justin Fields, Dwayne Haskins. Stud, stud, stud. A fair theory of the last few years of Ryan Day is that Michigan beat him in the trenches, Lou Holtz and others bullied him for it, Ryan Day became obsessed with winning in the trenches, and Ryan Day changed Ohio State’s offensive approach to try to win in the trenches at all costs, leading to a brief departure from those dynamite offenses which were such a staple of Day’s Buckeyes. An alternate theory is that Kyle McCord wasn’t as good as he was rated as a prospect, that throwing to Marvin Harrison Jr. in high school—shockingly—led to some overestimation of the kid. A third theory is that Day and McCord weren’t a good fit for what the other was built to do.
Manning was a bigger recruit than Sayin, but not by a mile. It’s a big enough gap that his last name isn’t the sole difference-maker, but it’s close enough to ask the question. Manning’s also a year older and has more in-game experience, including two career starts. But it’s weird that there isn’t more national excitement around Sayin, especially considering how eager folks are to tell us that Jeremiah Smith’s the best player in the country. A five-star quarterback with some mobility, coached by Ryan Day, throwing to Jeremiah Smith? This team is ranked behind Penn State?
To be fair, Ohio State sent just as much talent to the draft as Texas did. The offensive line might take some time to come together, and the defensive line could prove an Achilles heel with Knowles gone and four down linemen off to the NFL. But Ohio State has shown a higher ceiling under Day than Texas has under Sark. The overall talent level is comparable. Matt Patricia is question mark, but he was a great defensive coordinator at the tail end of the Brady/Belichick dynasty. At the end of the season, Ohio State is the better bet to lift the trophy.
The problem for them tomorrow is that Ohio State might know that. More than anyone else, Ohio State has lived the reality of the new playoff world. You can lose now. You can lose twice. You can lose in mind-blowing embarrassing fashion. You can blow a win at Oregon through poor game management, get strangled by Jim Harbaugh’s ghost, and still waltz away in January having won every playoff game by multiple scores. Why should Ohio State feel urgency tomorrow? After tomorrow, there’s no conceivable loss on their schedule until they go to Champaign in October, and even that’s hard to take that seriously.
Still, Ohio State does go to Champaign in October, and they host Jim Knowles’s Penn State in November, and they close the regular season against Michigan, with other at least borderline plausible pitfalls along the way. And given there are byes in consideration and byes are useful, the stakes are real. But 2-in-3 playoff-likely is pretty likely, and that’s roughly the worst case coming out of tomorrow for the scarlet and gray.
From our model:
- Current playoff probability: 85%
- Playoff probability with a win: 92%
- Playoff probability with a loss: 65%
Brian Kelly vs. Dabo Swinney
If Ohio State vs. Texas isn’t the biggest game of the weekend, what is?
Brian Kelly might be on the hot seat. A lot of people want him to be, because Brian Kelly is both widely reviled and highly entertaining. LSU is also entertaining, especially when LSU is in chaos. Does this mean Kelly’s clock is ticking? I have no idea. That’s both a product of and a contributor to what makes LSU so fun.
A playoff appearance would undoubtedly keep Brian Kelly employed. That’s what the people want these days, and Kelly’s got a decent chance of getting it. Unfortunately for him, there are seven ranked teams standing in LSU’s way, and the Tigers have to play four of those seven on the road, a list which starts tomorrow in the other Tigers’ Death Valley.
The risk is high, and the history of doom spirals both in Kelly locker rooms and at LSU is a bad omen. LSU could win the SEC. LSU could finish 5–7. There are no surprises with this LSU. That volatility, plus the likelihood LSU’s a playoff bubble team in the end, makes this comparably do-or-die for the hosts, Clemson. Clemson’s in a vulnerable spot. They’re the ACC favorites, and some think they have national title capability. But last year showed how hard it is to make the playoff with two losses when you’re a team in the ACC. Lose, and the margin for error gets pretty small. Lose and then see LSU’s year turn bad? That’s white-knuckle stuff.
Is Clemson for real? It depends again on your definition. Clemson brings back seemingly everyone, but their overall talent level isn’t there with Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and Texas. They could create some magic, and they’ve done it before, but their best national championship hope is chaos elsewhere. Provided Cade Klubnik stays healthy (he’s arguably the single most integral player in the country vis-à-vis his team’s plans), Clemson should have a very high floor. That might be enough to win it all, but it’s likelier that someone else’s ceiling is too high.
Speaking of high ceilings…you guys like Garrett Nussmeier?
We took some deserved heat for not mentioning him earlier this week when we talked about the Heisman. Our logic there was that we’d also have to mention LaNorris Sellers, which would mean mentioning John Mateer, which would lead into a discussion of Drew Allar, and at that point we got a little nauseous about what we’d gotten ourselves into. In this era of college football, every quarterback with a playoff shot is a Heisman candidate. But. Nussmeier is one of the better ones. Tons of people compare him to Brett Favre. Physically, they’re different. Spiritually (on the field!), it’s easy to see the comparison.
LSU is often fun to watch. LSU should be really fun to watch this year. If you are being held captive and your captor is only letting you follow one college football team, comment “Help!” on this blogpost and then tell your captor you’ve chosen LSU. LSU has lots of talent—they’re on Clemson’s plane there, one step down from the big boys and half a step behind the Oregon Ducks. They have a gunslinger at quarterback. There’s off-field drama simmering or at least ready to get into that pot. This LSU season should be a wild ride.
But tomorrow…
All seven of LSU’s draftees came from positions that line up on the line of scrimmage.
It’s hard to transition in the trenches.
Brian Kelly’s strength is avoiding bad losses, not grabbing big wins.
It’s probably on Nussmeier to make some magic.
From our model on Clemson:
- Current playoff probability: 46%
- Playoff probability with a win: 61%
- Playoff probability with a loss: 25%
From our model on LSU:
- Current playoff probability: 26%
- Playoff probability with a win: 46%
- Playoff probability with a loss: 13%
Can Notre Dame Nail the Encore?
Notre Dame is a year or two away. We should have more about this on the site tomorrow or Sunday, but while the five-stars are finally going to South Bend again, it’s going to take a minute before the talent level reaches Oregon’s or that of the national leaders. The Irish are set up for continuity, with a young, supported head coach, a seasoned staff around him, and a starting quarterback with plenty of eligibility left. As long as they don’t lose momentum, they’re a “buy stock in these guys” program.
It’s very easy to lose momentum. It’s very easy to lose momentum at Notre Dame.
Charlie Weis had two great seasons and some great recruiting classes beside them.
Brian Kelly made a national championship game and, as a result, got the recruiting pipeline briefly turned back on.
Marcus Freeman is so easy to love that people aren’t currently reminding each other the guy’s lost at home to Marshall, Stanford, and NIU. Those games happened, though, and just because Notre Dame turned into a steamroller post-NIU doesn’t mean the program is completely cured. Notre Dame thrived last year off of a lot of magic and some high-ceiling programs crumbling around them. That’s a hard recipe to recreate.
Nonetheless, Freeman’s Irish have been a model of resilience, and the 12-team era’s a better one for momentum-keeping than the eras of Weis and Kelly. Notre Dame should be a year or two away. When that ceiling rises, wake up the echoes for real.
In the meantime, this should be a good Irish team, one that should be favored in every regular season game, something that isn’t that rare (Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Arizona State, and even some mid-majors might enjoy the distinction) but is a good spot to occupy. First up on the list? The Carson Beck edition of Miami.
Carson Beck is easy to both over and underrate. He was supposed to be Georgia’s answer to Trevor Lawrence, but he was never as much of a football player as Lawrence was and is. Still, those tools are elite, and Shannon Dawson just made Cam Ward the best quarterback in the country, and Miami only barely missed the playoff last year. Will the defense be good enough up the middle to stop Notre Dame from grounding and pounding? Probably not. But if pre-snap music gets to CJ Carr or if Chris Ash’s ND defensive coordinator debut turns shootout, Miami’s well-equipped for that world. Miami is not as good on paper as Clemson. But they’re not far behind.
Miami is not a year or two away from playing at what we think of as a national championship level. The talent isn’t there, and neither is the program infrastructure. Miami is a program who gets a few five-stars but is unlikely to put together the full package unless the university and its ecosystem fundamentally change. But Miami might have the best offense in the country this year. We’ll see if Beck’s arm is one hundred percent. We’ll see if Mario Cristobal’s program has adequately replaced its entire receiving corps. We’ll see if new hire Corey Hetherman can make this defense work. There is no question that this team is capable of beating Notre Dame. Actually doing it is going to be hard.
From our model on Notre Dame:
- Current playoff probability: 76%
- Playoff probability with a win: 88%
- Playoff probability with a loss: 51%
From our model on Miami:
- Current playoff probability: 40%
- Playoff probability with a win: 64%
- Playoff probability with a loss: 29%
Is Alabama Ok?
Those are the three big ones, but there’s a fourth that leads the afternoon slot tomorrow. Alabama’s at Florida State, and betting markets either expect FSU to be a lot better or Alabama to be a lot worse.
We’ll see about both those things. It’d be hard for FSU to be worse than last year’s version. They brought in Thomas Castellanos, but with all due respect to Thomas Castellanos, I don’t know that anyone in Tallahassee should feel relieved when the program is turning to Boston College’s quarterback as a source of salvation. DJ Uiagalelei was a problem for the Seminoles. He was not the only problem.
Maybe FSU’s got it and rises back quickly through the ACC. More likely, Clemson was down a few years ago, the ACC offers a lot of easy wins, Brian Kelly struggles in big games (that 2023 FSU vs. LSU game was significant in terms of playoff history, considering it was what enabled FSU to go 13–0 before they were excluded from the playoff and then lost to Georgia by 955 points), and FSU is volatile with only a second-tier ceiling. That’s the thing about FSU. It’s hard to do the 2019 LSU thing (produce a standalone great team with little buildup and a quick regression) when you don’t have LSU resources. At the moment, FSU should be happy if FSU can learn how to walk again. But there seem to be optimists out there, because the most efficient predictor of college football performance says they’re only two touchdowns worse than Alabama with the game played at home.
More interesting is Alabama. We knew the transition from Nick Saban to Kalen DeBoer would be hard. Replacing the greatest coach of all time is difficult in any sport and situation, but it’s especially difficult in college football in Tuscaloosa, where boosters are even more egotistical and a lot more powerful than, say, the folks behind basketball at Duke. There is a lot of noise in Tuscaloosa, and DeBoer never dealt with noise in any of his previous jobs.
The problem here is that noise doesn’t get quieter, and it especially doesn’t get quieter when you miss a twelve-team playoff despite having one of the best two or three rosters in the country. Alabama should be strong on defense and stronger on offense. Alabama is loaded with talent, bursting at the seams. Alabama has just as many potential distractions as Georgia or LSU, and it has a coach with less experience dealing with distractions and less authority in the back room if he asks everyone in a red and white polo to shut the hell up. The Tide will blow teams out this year. Like Sayin, Ty Simpson deserves plenty of excitement at QB. But man, if they slip up, it’s going to be ugly. This schedule includes Georgia and then a lot of potential slip-ups. DeBoer probably needs to win all eleven of those to keep everybody sane.
From our model on Alabama:
- Current playoff probability: 48%
- Playoff probability with a win: 49%
- Playoff probability with a loss: 17%
From our model on Florida State:
- Current playoff probability: 0.3%
- Playoff probability with a win: 1.7%
- Playoff probability with a loss: 0.2%
Boise State Lost
So this is big. The favorite for the twelfth playoff spot—the only mid-major who made the playoff last year, one who returned a lot of what worked so well—went and got run off the field at USF. Going into the day yesterday, Boise State was 22% playoff-likely, per our model. Then their defense got shredded by Byrum Brown and USF did the little things fifty times better than Boise State did.
It’s tempting to get really excited about USF, and if you have any tie to USF I do encourage that. The Bulls now play Florida and Miami, each on the road, before catching their breath ahead of AAC play. In AAC play, they have to be listed as a contender. But we made a big update to Movelor this offseason in which it reacts to Week 1 65% more dramatically than it did before, and Movelor still has USF only 65th in Division I. That isn’t that far back in the Group of Five pack, which Tulane leads at 46th (North Dakota State is 38th, but no FBS mid-majors are in the top 45). But USF doesn’t lead it, and for as admirable as the schedule is, it’s probably not going to leave any room for error. Boise State was not one of the 25 best teams in the country. It’s possible they weren’t last year either. Their big achievements were both losses, and not even to Ohio State or Notre Dame.
If we ran bracketology again today, we’d have Tulane in ahead of Boise State. That’s what our model is saying. But it only has the Green Wave 14% likely, and they’re effectively tied with Memphis. USF? 3% chance. But that’s triple what it was yesterday.
The Rest of the Week, From Montana State to Syracuse
Scattered thoughts only, on games that catch my eye:
- Auburn’s trip to Baylor tonight is fascinating. So is Georgia Tech’s to Colorado, who in a bizarre twist probably isn’t getting enough credit for how good they were last year. Nothing like some Week 1 intrigue involving four teams we might not notice at all after Halloween.
- Whole lot happening in the lowercase-o orange bowl, with Tennessee pretty disrespected by the polls post-Iamaleava but Syracuse coming off a startlingly successful debut for Fran Brown. Excited about that one.
- Gratuituous Iowa State thought is that I’m less worried about South Dakota than I was last weekend. They might be a top-five FCS team, but they had more turnover than I realized, and at least by the sounds of it Iowa State is taking them seriously. If there’s one thing we can be sure of as Iowa State fans, it’s that our program knows the betting line. (*winces*)
- Montana State had a ton of turnover as well, so don’t bother trying to convince your FCS-hater friends that it’s impressive if Oregon beats them by four touchdowns. Like South Dakota and South Dakota State, there’s a good chance the Bobcats put it together, but there is one FCS power right now and it plays in the Fargodome.
- At the FCS level, South Dakota State’s new era begins against Sacramento State. If the Jacks lose that game, it’s panic time. (Sacramento State’s not bad by FCS standards, but they aren’t a Dakota or Montana school).
- We’ll be back on Sunday and Monday, so I can add more about these two then, but Virginia Tech/South Carolina is a good game and UNC/TCU is a good television event. South Carolina has a lot of chips on the table, and anything less than a comfortable victory will leave room for questioning (and maybe some optimism for beleaguered VT). UNC might turn into something, but even if they do, they’re probably a year away.
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