Pretty much everyone got knocked around on Wednesday night in Cleveland. The wind was howling. The teams combined for 19 runs. There were eleven extra-base hits. In short, Masahiro Tanaka’s single-game performance wasn’t particularly worrisome in a vacuum. What’s more worrisome is Tanaka’s season-long performance, his performance for the three seaons before this one, and where he fits in the Yankees’ pitching hierarchy.
Tanaka’s 3.56 ERA was great this year over ten starts. It was his best season since 2016. It came with a 4.42 FIP, though, and an average exit velocity not out of line with those of the other years since 2016, in all of which he’s also posted a 4.00+ FIP.
FIP’s in the low-to-mid 4.00’s aren’t bad. But for a second starter? Against the rotation of the Rays? (Or, further on, the Dodgers or even the Astros or Braves or healthy Padres.) It’s out of place.
Thankfully for those in the Bronx (and in many other places around the country), the bats are good enough and the Rays’ bats are bad enough that the Yankees should be favored or nearly favored to win each game of the series, barring a significant roster-impacting event. But with five games in five days, Gerrit Cole will have to pitch on short rest if he’s to pitch twice, and the bullpen, big-named as it is, is not going to get days off. Tanaka’s the second-best option the Yankees have, and while their third through fifth starters are all comparable to him in quality, there’s still a wide gap between Cole and the rest.
The Rays do not have the advantage in this series. But they have the pitching advantage. Which makes tonight a bit of a no-lose for Tampa Bay. Upset Cole and they’re in control of the series, even if they might be underdogs every single day. Lose, and they’re where they were expected to be.
On the other side in the AL, we get a bit of a blood feud between the Astros and the A’s. The Astros have the starting pitching advantage. The A’s have the better bullpen. The Astros’ lineup is better on paper. The A’s lineup produced narrowly better regular season results. It’s a tight, tight matchup, and has the seeds for what could be a chaotic, exhausted-relievers-throwing-40-pitches-on-no-rest Game 5. But we’re a long way from that. One day at a time.
