1. It was going so well.
Seven runs in the first inning. Seven of them. A 7-0 lead. In the first inning. With Josh Hader probably unavailable.
2. Jake Arrieta could throw to no bases accurately.
To be fair, we didn’t see him attempt any throws to second and third, but the only thing more disastrous than his attempts at throwing baseballs across home plate was his attempt to throw a baseball to first base, something that ended with Patrick Wisdom taking a shoulder to the face and being removed from a game in which Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant were already unavailable.
3. What now? Jake Arrieta edition.
You’ve got Kohl Stewart in the minors. You’ve got a bullpen that can throw bullpen games. And while this was far and away Arrieta’s worst performance, it wasn’t altogether shocking.
I’ve questioned at times whether Arrieta knows his role, thinking he’s still trying to dominate when he should be trying to eat innings. I’m not sure that was the problem yesterday so much as a physical inability to throw strikes. The latter is, of course, worse than the former. And the former’s bad too!
At some point, if you’re trying to compete, you can’t let this version of Jake Arrieta pitch for your team. It’s sad, because of Arrieta’s place in Cubs’ lore, but it’s the situation.
Of course, if you’re not trying to win baseball games, you can keep throwing him out there. And the Cubs might not be trying to win baseball games for very much longer.
4. What now? Future of the franchise edition.
If you’re trying to maximize the total number of expected World Series titles over the next ten years, you start shopping guys aggressively right now. Craig Kimbrel. Andrew Chafin. Dan Winkler. Rex Brothers. Zach Davies. Joc Pederson. Jake Marisnick. Javier Báez. Willson Contreras, perhaps (he might fetch the biggest haul of anybody, but trading him would require placing a lot of faith in Miguel Amaya to be the catcher of the future, which would probably be 2023 and beyond). You wouldn’t start shopping Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo until they got healthy, but eventually, yes, you’d shop them too. Basically, you’d try to trade anyone of value that you do not control through 2023 or you don’t think will be as good in 2023 as what you can get for them and you try to use them to bolster a farm system such that it can start pumping out major league-ready guys towards the end of next year, effectively moving the next contention window up by a year or two.
If you’re trying to keep fans engaged, make the biggest profit, maximize the total number of years in which you’re competitive, no, you don’t sell everyone just yet. But you at least start listening.
As I said…was it just yesterday?…the Cubs’ biggest problem is not that ownership sold the Cubs short. It’s that the franchise took some of the most talented baseball players of the last decade, including Jason Heyward, and somehow turned them into incompetent hitters who fell short in two straight division races they should have won and then got swept by the motherfucking Marlins in a bizarro playoff series. Ownership did sell the Cubs short. Tom Ricketts does not appear interested in fielding competitive baseball teams anymore (or at least, he doesn’t want to spend the money that would take). To be fair, the Cubs have been big spenders in the Ricketts’ tenure, but yes, this offseason, the ownership sold the Cubs short. But the bigger problem is the Cubs took a can’t-miss situation these last three and a half years and missed. They opened the door wide for a Brewers franchise that should have been looking for wild card scraps and biding its time. They opened the door wide for a Cardinals franchise that should have been stuck waiting for veterans to play themselves out of the league. They took what should have been an NL Central powerhouse and becamse mediocre, and here we are.
***
Around the Division:
The Reds blew a four-run lead to the Padres in a game that was declared official after rain initially suspended it in the sixth. Ouch. The Cardinals beat the Diamondbacks, 7-4.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 48-33, 84.5%
2. Cubs: 42-39, 7.9%
3. St. Louis: 40-41, 2.4%
4. Cincinnati: 39-40, 5.1%
5. Pittsburgh: 29-50, 0.0%
The Brewers start a four-game set in Pittsburgh today. Corbin Burnes vs. Wil Crowe. The Cardinals go to Denver. Adam Wainwright vs. Antonio Senzatela. The Reds finish up their series with the Padres. Luis Castillo vs. Ryan Weathers.
Up Next:
Three against the Reds in Cincinnati.
Cubs News:
Taylor Gushue made his debut in relief of Wisdom, who it sounds like has a bruise on his eye and a sore neck, but evidently no concussion? More word could come out these next two days, but the Cubs may not have lost their Rookie of the Year candidate. Gushue got the call-up instead of Tony Wolters, and maybe he’ll be a pleasant surprise? We can hope. They haven’t taken that from us yet.
Cubs Thoughts:
They aren’t fully dead yet. But it would take a big shift to resurrect this season, and the health is the worst it’s been in a while (they were doing alright there for a bit). As I’ve said in recent days, the bigger deviator from expectations has been the Brewers, not the Cubs. But in a division in which it looked like there were four 79-85-win quality teams, it’s not surprising that one appears likely to win 90. You roll four dice, one will probably be a six. So it isn’t a shock that we’re here.
What would it take to get back in it? I’d imagine the All-Star Break could be a cut-the-cord moment if the Cubs are still sitting where they currently sit, or somewhere near where they currently sit. So the best thing to hope for is probably a 7-3 stretch from the Cubs (win every series, sweep none) and a 4-7 stretch from the Brewers (split with the Pirates, lose the other two series, sweeping none) to put the Cubs two and a half back. Will they do it? Will the Brewers help? It is unlikely. But it’s possible.
