Our NCAAT Bracketology and NIT Bracketology are now updated, current through yesterday’s games (yesterday was Sunday the 22nd as I write this, even if it isn’t as you read this). It’s an interesting point in the season for brackets, because while individual results might not be “make or break,” they can sometimes result in a bigger swing than the same outcome would in late February.
This phenomenon is a byproduct of how our bracketology works. It’s predictive, not reactive, meaning it’s forecasting the most likely result for each team based on what we currently know. With such a small sample size of games from which to base impressions of each team, individual games can significantly shift our model’s projection for the teams involved, even if the results themselves aren’t extremely meaningful.
This could be a good thing about our brackets. It could mean that our brackets don’t take as long as others to catch up to newfound realities about, say, Texas, who lost by 22 to lowly (this year) Providence on Saturday. It could also be a bad thing. If an individual result can make that big a difference at this point in the year, why do December brackets at all? Why not wait? Both responses are probably valid, but you’re clearly interested, because here you are. We’re interested too. Let’s dig in.
The Top Lines Stayed Put
Another reason Texas (and a few other teams) could make such big moves, in either direction, in just a week is that they’re in a very tight portion of the seed list. Teams are packed closely around the bubble. Small changes make big differences when everything sifts out.
At the top, though, it’s not as tight. It’s stratified. There’s room to breathe, and there’s room for inconsistency that doesn’t shuffle the deck.
The four number one seeds all remained the same this week. Three of the number two seeds stayed constant as well. Two number three seeds stayed. Ohio State, Kansas, and Duke are the top tier, all nearly 100% likely to make the NCAA Tournament field (don’t be surprised if they reach 100% soon—our model’s error margins are still wide). We might not pay as much notice to the top tier around here as we should, since bigger swings in making the tournament whatsoever grab our attention more forcefully, so let’s make note of this now, with special mention to Gonzaga, whose seeding potential our model might be undervaluing (we’re working on that piece of it—Gonzaga’s treated uniquely by the committee, getting more credit than teams with similar résumés year over year, presumably because they’ve proven they “deserve it”). These four, plus Michigan State and Louisville, are your primary national championship contenders at this point in time.
Disaster by the Red River—on Either Side
Oklahoma and Texas both had bad weeks, in very different ways. Oklahoma dropped from 57.2% likely to make the NCAA Tournament to 40.8% likely. Texas dropped from 55.3% to 23.6%.
Texas’ debacle in New England reset expectations at a bad time, with just one tune-up remaining before conference play. The start of the Big 12 slate is favorable to Shaka Smart’s team: a nothing-to-lose trip to Waco, then visits from the Sooners and Kansas State, both games in which the Longhorns should be favorite. This might help UT ward off a spiral. It also might bring an uncomfortable reality to light sooner, rather than later. It’s not late enough in the season to have true must-win games, but Texas is getting close.
Oklahoma had, on the surface, a much more respectable week. Yes, they lost by ten at Creighton, but that’s a reasonable result in Omaha. They won their other game, and while it was only by one over UCF at home, it wasn’t the type of thing that jumps off the page. Still, it lowered expectations for Lon Kruger’s squad, and a team that was squarely above the bubble two weeks ago is now projecting to land on the wrong side of it.
An East Tennessee State-ment Made LSU Pay
East Tennessee State has risen high enough in our model’s projected seed list that they’d be an NIT at-large team if they weren’t the current SoCon favorite (the same thing is happening with Liberty in the A-Sun, by the way, but they didn’t do anything dramatic enough to earn their own blurb tonight). The Bucs have a tough loss on their résumé, in Fargo against North Dakota State, but their victory at LSU changed the picture significantly. They’re no shoe-in to win the SoCon—Furman and UNC-Greensboro aren’t far behind ETSU—but if they run away with the league, which does look possible, and then lose to the Paladins or Spartans in March, they could be a candidate for an NCAAT at-large bid. They’re currently 48.4% likely to make the NCAA Tournament. They’re only 36.2% likely to receive an automatic bid. You can do the math on what that means.
If ETSU’s a bubble team themselves, or at least something close, then why did the result in Baton Rouge damage LSU’s chances so dramatically?
Because we’re at the stage where we’re learning about teams, rather than just measuring wins and losses, it doesn’t just matter that LSU lost. It also matters how they lost. And they lost badly, allowing 19 offensive rebounds while recording more turnovers than assists. Not a great look, and not a great addition to the data set.
Virginia and Kentucky Should Be Concerned
Kentucky’s performance against Ohio State offered some reassurance, but losing to this year’s Utah is stunning for a team expected to perennially contend for national championships. Kentucky’s weakness shooting from deep might not seem like the worst Achilles heel, given how the Wildcats don’t attempt many three’s to begin with, but it’s at the level where it’s dragging their overall shooting efficiency down close to the national median. They make up for it by protecting the ball adequately, getting an adequate share of offensive rebounds, and making the most out of a high number of trips to the free throw line, but the offense is hardly top-30. That isn’t the recipe for an SEC contender.
As for Virginia: The same is true about the shooting, but they also can’t score inside. They also can’t get to the line. They’re also turning the ball over, and they’re struggling to grab offensive rebounds. Getting Braxton Key functionally healthy should help with the rebounding, and with scoring overall, but the offense is bad news, which is sad, because the defense could be historically great. A home loss to South Carolina doesn’t spell doom for UVA. What caused it does, however, spell trouble.
Minnesota Caught a Break, and More Than Took Advantage
Oklahoma State has struggled to stay above water with Isaac Likekele out, and their 20-point loss to Minnesota—in Tulsa, no less—was the latest blow. For Minnesota, though, it was a massive break at the perfect time. The Golden Gophers began the season 1-3, notably losing to Utah on the road. They were 4-5 following their loss to Iowa two weeks ago tonight, when even their NIT chances looked bleak.
Now, our model’s projecting them to land in the NCAAT field. Disaster still looms, and the overall W-L record could come back to bite them (they’re likely going to have one of the best strength of schedule numbers in the country when this is all said and done, but that might not matter if they’re 15-16). But for the time being, Richard Pitino’s team has done everything in the last month they could be expected to do.
The WCC Is Good
It’s not just Gonzaga. It’s not just Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s (though the 40-point assault on Arizona State’s dignity Wednesday night did do some good things for the Gaels). It’s BYU, too. The WCC has three teams in KenPom’s top 35, and entering this week, our model would be surprised if the league sent fewer than two teams to the big dance, with three possibly more likely (it’s too close to tell without a more detailed dive).
The West Coast Conference isn’t as deep as it was last year. It doesn’t have the top line it had in 2017. But it’s a smooth conference slate away from sending three teams to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2012. Watch closely.
