As talent continues to more evenly distribute throughout college basketball, and as coaches find edges in continuously newer ways, we’ve seen a 15-seed reach the Sweet Sixteen each of the last three years. Obviously, that will not be happening this season, with every 15 and 16-seed eliminated in their opening game. We also won’t have a 14-seed, with Oakland going down last night. A 13? Yale’s an underdog, but not by very much. A 12? These two face longer odds than Yale, but it’s not far from 50/50 that at least one of James Madison and Grand Canyon will break through.
In the event all three of those teams go down this afternoon and evening, we’ll have our first Sweet Sixteen without a team seeded 12 or higher since 2018. What happened that year? Loyola made the Final Four. So: Plenty of madness probably awaits us. Even if the favorites, so far, have been unusually adept at dodging bullets. (We had a clear top 16 in the bracketology world for the last month leading up to Selection Sunday, so if you want a case to predict chalk, include that in it.)
As we await those shattered dreams, a thought on each of yesterday’s games:
- We have spent time at this site doubting on Dalton Knecht, and the totality of his performance yesterday would seem to justify that doubting. However. In yesterday’s closing minutes, as Texas brought it close and then brought it close again, Dalton Knecht hit a three coming out of the under-8 timeout and then then went 4-of-4 from the line in the game’s final eleven seconds. Tennessee went to Dalton Knecht and Dalton Knecht delivered. That’s the kind of thing Tennessee’s been lacking offensively the last few years. So yes, we understand his value. (We just think the defensive issues are glossed over, and that against a better team, the closing minutes of a game like that won’t matter.)
- The second overtime was a bit of a letdown, but what a game between Creighton and Oregon. You wonder whether Jackson Shelstad would have made the difference in one of Oregon’s first two chances to win the game. 33 field goal attempts by Jermaine Couisnard is something else. He shot more than once per minute from the floor. 20 rebounds by N’Faly Dante is also a whole lot, even in 48 minutes on the court. For Creighton, it’s the fourth postseason in a row in which they’ve advanced as far as their seed line implies and beaten everyone seeded behind them. The last time they didn’t was when they lost to Kansas State in 2018 in an 8/9-game. K-State went to the Elite Eight that year, albeit with some help from UMBC.
- Illinois ran Duquesne off the floor, and that may have been bound to happen, in hindsight. Illinois’s offense is so potent. Duquesne was facing a big talent disadvantage. The second weekend monkey is off Illinois’s back. Now, they have to avoid a letdown in a game where even their best could conceivably not be enough. (As an Iowa State fan: I am terrified of every remaining game for my Cyclones.)
- Iowa State came out colder than cold, and Washington State was ready for everything Iowa State threw at them, but it was Iowa State’s roster in the end that came through. Iowa State had the better players, and some of that is recruiting, but a lot is T.J. Otzelberger’s development of these guys. It’s not like Robert Jones stuffed the stat sheet or even had a particularly good game, but can you imagine telling someone two years ago you’d be trusting Robert Jones wholeheartedly in an NCAA Tournament second round game? Otz is a great recruiter not only because he can persuade players to join his program, but because he identifies good fits, both in terms of players he can help develop and players whose character will be an asset.
- I am going to rain on NC State’s parade for a second and point out that they needed overtime to beat Oakland. All the credit in the world to both those teams, but Marquette or Colorado got a great draw, as it all turned out.
- I’m not sure concerns about Tom Izzo’s demise are warranted. He assembled a good roster this year, and the coaching should continue to translate. If this team was past 40 in kenpom it’d be one thing—that would mean they weren’t playing up to their talent. But a lot of close losses culminating in getting blown past by RJ Davis & Co. in Charlotte? You could do worse.
- There was a big anti-anti-Gonzaga backlash after Gonzaga beat Kansas, and it made no sense at all. Unless the anti-Gonzaga hive is more vibrant than I understand, I think we should all be able to agree that Gonzaga is a good program, that Gonzaga was struggling mightily in January and rightfully doubted up until they beat Kentucky, and that the Kansas team they beat was mediocre already compared to expectations and was then also missing their best player. A lot of straw men got the shit kicked out of them yesterday by college basketball media. Congratulations? Worse, some of those doing the kicking had been ringing alarm bells themselves about the Zags after the Santa Clara loss. A clown show, I say!
- Dayton was pesky, but Arizona avoided the trap. I think the Los Angeles angle is a bit overplayed with the Cats—home-court advantage is more than just crowd, and home-court advantage isn’t that big—but Baylor or Clemson and then most likely UNC is a good draw, and LA’s not a bad draw, and yes the Wildcats should be favored now to reach the Final Four. That is the case. Arizona is good. It’s all in front of them.
More thoughts tomorrow, with a look at our model’s updated probabilities. Here are the NCAAT ones. Here are the NIT ones. They update every morning.
