The Padres have one of the best rosters in baseball, better than that of any American League team (including the Yankees, because starting pitching counts), and better than almost the entirety of the National League.
There’s about a 42% chance they’re facing elimination after today.
No, this isn’t a complaint about the playoff format. The Padres would be playing the Cardinals in a Wild Card Game in last year’s format, too, and their likelihood of opening-round elimination would be even higher. Instead, it’s a reflection of how thin the ice is upon which they stand, with Mike Clevinger dealing with an elbow impingement and Dinelson Lamet dealing with bicep tightness. Chris Paddack is a fine pitcher, but he’s no Clevinger or Lamet.
If all goes well for San Diego, Paddack and the bats will get them through today and either Lamet will be healthy enough to go tomorrow or Zach Davies will get the job done, buying a little more time for the aces to get their health back. Two games from elimination is a dangerous place to sit, and one would imagine a rather maddening place to sit with two of the best pitchers in the National League sitting in the dugout unavailable.
A thought for each of the other NL Wild Card Series:
- Yu Darvish gives the Cubs a huge advantage in Game 2 after being relatively heavy favorites today. The Cubs got about the best draw they could have asked for.
- The Dodgers are so, so good, but they’re also vulnerable, and the very real possibility exists that they’ll be eliminated in their first playoff series for the second straight year. Their draw is better than that of last year, but man—baseball’s a hard sport in which to win an individual game.
- Cincinnati’s series with Atlanta looks like a thrill, and seems like the most likely of these to get contentious given Ronald Acuña Jr.’s propensity to flip bats and the Reds’ opposition to things like “chirping.”
