Last year was supposed to be the year for the Reds. They’d had an aggressive offseason-plus, stretching all the way back to the 2019 trade deadline, at which they acquired future Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. The roster was packed, and though they were only roughly one-in-four likely to win the Central Division, they were the most recent riser, making them #trendy.
Last year almost was the year for the Reds. Had they managed just a single run in their first playoff game, they would have had Atlanta on the brink of elimination. Had they gotten past Atlanta, they would have drawn the Marlins. An NLCS appearance? I’d guess that would have been a happy outcome in Cincinnati.
Instead, the Reds did not manage a single run against Atlanta. Instead, the Reds did not win the Central Division. And now, with Bauer gone to Los Angeles, it’s possible the Reds’ window was a one-year window, and is currently closed.
But while it’s true that the Reds are not expected to finish with a winning record this year, and that their playoff odds are roughly half of what they were in the old format, somebody does have to win the Central, and the guys from Cincinnati aren’t too bad a bet. While the Brewers are the favorites, they aren’t strong favorites, and even without Bauer, the Reds have a solid rotation and bullpen with one of the best pitching coaches in the game in Derek Johnson. And at the plate? Hardly anyone of import walked this offseason.
This isn’t to say you should count the Reds out. It’s to say that just as last year’s excitement was overblown, pessimism this year should be limited within the confines of the knowledge that Bauer is only likely to be worth about four and a half wins above replacement-level pitchers, and that the Reds will likely have a collection at least moderately above replacement-level doing the actual replacing, and that to get all technical, again: somebody does have to win the Central.
The Brewers are the favorites.
But out of the Reds, Cubs, and Cardinals, the Reds don’t appear too far off pace.
