One down, one to go.
What Happened
Houston 5, Boston 0
The Red Sox finally did not make it happen.
They’d been making it happen all year, staving off doomful projection after doomful projection after doomful projection. Underdogs to even make the playoffs entering the season, and having opened the year being swept at home by the Baltimore Orioles, they roared in front of the East for long stretches of time. The Rays and Yankees made their surge, and a Covid outbreak hampered the muddling now-Wild Card hopefuls, and what did those hopefuls do but bounce back, finding a way to make it through? The Rays put them in a 1-0 hole in the Division Series and jumped on Chris Sale in Game 2, and yet again, the Red Sox came back.
This time, there was no comeback.
This time, the magic ran out.
It was a dominant showing from Luis Garcia. Five and two-thirds no-hit innings before a Kike Hernández triple in the sixth. Seven strikeouts. Just one walk. Nothing hit harder than Hernández’s first-inning 101-mph groundout. And with the Astros’ only run coming on Hernández seemingly hearing footsteps on a fly ball by Yordan Alvarez in the second, this was necessary.
Nathan Eovaldi shoved, at one point working out of a no-out jam with runners on second and third, striking out Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, and Chas McCormick to keep the game within one. It wasn’t until the sixth, following the Hernández triple, that the Astros broke through again, turning an Alvarez leadoff triple into a run when Kyle Schwarber turned an unassisted double play at first (and nearly a triple play—his throw home wasn’t close, but Alvarez had to slide) but failed to look Alvarez back to third.
Even then, it was tight. In the top of the seventh, trailing by two, the Red Sox put runners on first and third with one out, only to see Martín Maldonado cut down Alex Verdugo trying to steal second on the heels of a Travis Shaw strikeout for a crushing double play. At this point, Boston’s fate was becoming clear, and while Kyle Tucker’s eighth-inning three-run home run was the dagger, it didn’t make the difference. The Astros were the better team. The Astros won the pennant. The Astros are going to play in the World Series.
The Heroes
Win Probability Added leaders, from FanGraphs:
- Garcia (0.31)
- Alvarez (0.31)
What It Means
The Astros are World Series favorites now, though if the Dodgers come back, they would likely cede that to Los Angeles. Houston should be hoping for two more games in the NLCS. Two more long, pitching-taxing games.
Other Notes
- Alvarez finished with four hits, including the triple and two doubles.
- Yuli Gurriel and Alex Bregman each reached base twice.
- Phil Maton, Kendall Graveman, Ryne Stanek, and Ryan Pressly handled bullpen duties for Houston, combining to get ten outs on three strikeouts and one walk.
- Verdugo was on base twice for Boston.
- Boston had another chance in the first, when Schwarber got to third after a dropped third strike and a pair of outs. Part of what limited the damage there was a Jose Altuve diving backhand stop playing on the shortstop side of second, and the accompanying on-target throw to get Hernández at first.
***
And now, today’s matchup:
The Basics
Where: Truist Park
When: 8:08 PM EDT
Broadcast: TBS
Starting Pitchers: Ian Anderson (ATL), TBA (LA)
Odds: LA -180; ATL +165; o/u 8 (u -120) [English translation: The Dodgers are roughly 63% likely to win and 37% likely to lose, the expected number of runs scored is about 7.8]
The Details
Max Scherzer has been scratched, and if you’ve been reading these notes, you know what I’m going to say, which is that the romanticism of having Scherzer pitch the ninth inning of the Division Series’s Game 5 may be coming back around to the Dodgers. Eventually, you have to trust your bullpen, and now they’re quite possibly going to have to trust it for a whole game.
David Price is joining the roster to replace Joe Kelly. Price might be the opener tonight, with Walker Buehler an option on three days’ rest but not the most advantageous option, given the Dodgers need to win two and he’s lined up to start a potential Game 7 tomorrow (yes, you have to get there, but you also need to win if you do get there). Adding to the Dodgers’ headaches is that Justin Bruihl is now also evidently dealing with an arm injury. In other words…lot’s going on.
For Atlanta, Ian Anderson tries to finish the Dodgers off. He dodged a lot of bullets in Game 2, walking three in three innings and allowing a long ball but yielding just two runs. Another man to watch is Jorge Soler, who struck out in Game 5 as a pinch-hitter in his first at-bat in ten days after a stint on the Covid IL.
The Stars
It’s not necessarily going to come down to the Dodgers’ bullpen. It could instead come down to the Dodgers’ bats. But at some point, somebody’s going to need to get outs, and there are plenty of available pitchers capable of doing just that.
One underlying current here: The Dodgers have some free agents this offseason. Clayton Kershaw. Kenley Jansen. Chris Taylor. Corey Seager. And that’s without mentioning Max Scherzer or some of the bullpen arms. On one side, that opens up payroll space. On the other, it introduces uncertainty, both about winning and just the team’s identity—uncertainty about what lies ahead for Los Angeles should they lose tonight, or lose tomorrow, or even if they win it all. But it’s in the scenarios in which they lose in which this current rises. We think Corey Seager’s moving on. We think Chris Taylor might move on. We don’t know what’s next for Kenley Jansen. We don’t know what’s next for Clayton Kershaw.
We don’t know what’s next for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
