I don’t know whether the story here is whether the Astros can hold off Kike Hernández or whether the Red Sox can compete if Kike Hernández returns to Earth, but there’s a Kike Hernández story here.
What Happened
Houston 5, Boston 4
Chris Sale didn’t have it again, and for a bit, that didn’t matter. Alex Cora got him out of there in time. Hernández had tied it up with a solo home run, a Jose Altuve error had helped the Red Sox to a two-run lead, and Adam Ottavino not only got out of Sale’s jam but sparked a scoreless stretch from the Boston bullpen that left them leading 3-1, still, entering the bottom of the sixth.
Then, Houston showed up. Tanner Houck took a bad piece of luck on a Chas McCormick grounder up the middle, and then another bad piece of luck when an Altuve fly ball with just a .450 xBA made it over the fence to tie the game. With two outs again in the bottom of the seventh, it was Hansel Robles surrendering the questionable home run, as a Carlos Correa fly ball with just a .180 xBA likewise found the seats. Those short porches, man. Finally, a rough bottom of the eighth from Hirokazu Sawamura gave the home team an additional run atop their lead, one they ended up needing when Hernández hit his second blast of the day off of Ryan Pressly to lead off the ninth.
The Heroes
Win Probability Added leaders, from FanGraphs:
- Altuve (0.31) – don’t think this includes the error
- Correa (0.28)
- Hernández (0.24)
What It Means
Houston becomes the clear favorite in the AL, but the Red Sox can change that if they win today, flipping home-field advantage to Boston. Big opportunity for Houston to try to twist the knife. Big opportunity for Boston to get out of Texas with the series even.
Other Notes
- In addition to the two home runs, Hernández doubled and singled.
- Each team missed plenty of opportunities. Ten hits and four walks for Boston. Eleven hits and two walks for Houston.
- No reliever threw more than 28 pitches, and only Cristian Javier threw that many, signaling for full bullpens today.
- Kyle Schwarber hit a ball 115 mph off of Pressly right after the second Hernández home run, but it was right into the teeth of the shift. Imagine what banning the shift might do for Kyle Schwarber.
***
Now, today, in chronological order (so we’re going from Houston to Atlanta, not vice versa):
The Basics
Where: Minute Maid Park
When: 4:20 PM EDT
Broadcast: FOX (just had a terrifying moment where this didn’t show up on the MLB app and I thought those hacks had failed to get this on television somehow)
Starting Pitchers: Luis Garcia (HOU); Nathan Eovaldi (BOS)
Odds: HOU -115; BOS +105; o/u 8½ (o -120) [English translation: The Astros are roughly 52% likely to win; the Red Sox are roughly 48% likely to win; the expected number of runs is something like 8.74]
The Details
Garcia had a strong rookie campaign, notching a 3.63 FIP and 3.98 xERA. He’s projected by FanGraphs to be a 4.22-FIP guy, which is still strong, but not outstanding. Opposite him, Eovaldi had a phenomenal year, posting a 2.79 FIP and 3.37 xERA, but his projection is a 3.65 FIP.
One thing to watch with Garcia is whether he can get strikeouts. He was fine at this over the season as a whole, but three of his last four starts of the regular season featured three strikeouts or fewer, as did his lone ALDS start, which ended with him pulled and the White Sox leading substantially.
For the Red Sox, the bullpen is the question mark, with nobody as reliable as Pressly is for the Astros (even with last night’s home run, Pressly’s the best bullpen arm out there this series). Can Eovaldi give them a lead? If he does, can they hold it?
The Stars
Eovaldi’s career postseason numbers (32.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, sub-3.00 FIP, no individual outing with an ERA or FIP above 3.00) are incredible, but their predictive power is questionable. The fact Altuve and Correa hit home runs last night was big for the Astros, but again, the home runs themselves weren’t particularly impressive, coming more as a factor of the ballpark. Anyway, those are big matchups, and the Red Sox would do well to get some production from the heart of their order, since they don’t have too many leads that feel safe.
***
In Atlanta:
The Basics
Where: Truist Park
When: 8:08 PM EDT
Broadcast: TBS
Starting Pitchers: Max Fried (ATL); Corey Knebel (LAD)
Odds: LA -129; ATL +119; o/u 8 (o -115) [English translation: The Dodgers are roughly 55% likely to win; Atlanta’s roughly 45% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is something like 8.1] – Note: These may not yet be accounting for Knebel opening, since this is a recent announcement
The Details
Max Scherzer is evidently not ready to pitch Game 1, leaving the Dodgers turning to their bullpen, with Tony Gonsolin presumably the bulk guy. Maybe I’m wrong on this. Maybe we’re all wrong. Maybe the Dodgers are going to turn to Scherzer for a lot of it. But this seems to be the case, and one wonders if they’re opening the door a bit for their hosts. It was a weird move to turn to Scherzer for the ninth on Thursday. It’s looking weirder now.
For Atlanta, this is the opportunity. They’re at home. They’ve got a great arm on the mound in the form of Max Fried. They miss Jorge Soler, but not as much as the Dodgers miss Max Muncy. Atlanta has a chance here.
The Stars
Freddie Freeman leads the way for the home team, at least behind Fried. Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley are also right there in the thick of things. For the Dodgers, it’s just about everybody, but it starts with Mookie Betts.
Man.
I miss Ronald Acuña Jr.
