The Boston Red Sox had a bad 2020. The 2018 World Series champions limped to a 24-36 finish, good for last place in a division that, while strong at the top, included the Baltimore Orioles. It was a disaster for one of Major League Baseball’s premier franchises.
This year should be different.
To be clear, the Red Sox are not favored to make the playoffs. FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds have that as only 37% likely, given current roster construction. But at the same time, the simulations upon which those Playoff Odds are based (I believe this is how those Playoff Odds work—I think they’re a Monte Carlo simulation, but correct me if you know and I’m wrong) have the Red Sox finishing with 84.8 wins, just 1.2 wins behind the occupiers of the final playoff spot—the Chicago White Sox.
So what’s up in Boston?
The Offense Was Ok
Scoring runs wasn’t the problem for the Red Sox. They were eleventh in the major leagues in getting guys across the plate, with an eleventh-place wRC+ to match it. They did have the second-highest BABIP in the game at .321, but they’ve been in the top five in BABIP in four of the last five years, which prompts me, at least, to wonder whether the Green Monster turning flyouts into doubles and Yankee Stadium turning popups into home runs has something to do with this anomaly.
Boston did say goodbye this offseason to Jackie Bradley Jr., Kevin Pillar, Mitch Moreland, and Andrew Benintendi, the first three of whom were among the Red Sox’ top seven offensive producers by fWAR. On the other side of the coin, though, they added Kike Hernández, Hunter Renfroe, Marwin Gonzalez, and Franchy Cordero, and with Bobby Dalbec getting more at-bats and J.D. Martinez presumably bouncing back, the offense shouldn’t take much of a step back, if it steps back at all (FanGraphs’s Depth Charts project Boston to be in the top ten in offensive WAR).
Chris Sale Should Come Back
It sounds like it won’t be until after the All-Star Break, but the Red Sox should be getting back one of the game’s best pitchers in time for the stretch run.
It won’t be a full season of Sale, but it should still be worth a win or two.
Eduardo Rodriguez Is Back
Well, technically not. He’s been scratched from Thursday’s expected start due to “dead arm.” But it isn’t expected to hold him out long, and when he does return, he might be the best non-Sale starter under contract.
The Rest of the Pitching Should Be Better, Too
Garrett Richards presents upside. Adam Ottavino’s a nice addition. A staff that had a combined negative fWAR last season (and a worse ERA than their FIP, meaning the results were even further below replacement level than the performance) is projected to be in the top half of the league.
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If you’re adding up the raw projections mentioned here, you might notice that they boil out as follows: top ten offense, slightly above-average pitching staff. That isn’t a slam dunk combination. But we aren’t saying the Red Sox are going to go win the World Series. We’re just saying they’ve got one of the better shots in the American League to contend for a playoff berth. And after last year, that probably sounds pretty nice in Boston.
