Without knowing more about Notre Dame’s administration’s overall approach to coronavirus testing, it’s hard to know how good of news the results announced today are.
After consecutive days earlier this week announcing results with a positive test rate greater than 20%, the administration announced a 15% positive test rate yesterday on its biggest daily quantity of tests yet, followed by a 9% positive test rate announced today on a much smaller sample.
The assumption with the smaller test sample is that it’s a product of tracing, with the corollary assumption being that Notre Dame’s administration thought it necessary to conduct only roughly half the tests they did the day prior (the lag time between testing being conducted and test results being announced is unclear, at least to my eyes). Whether this is wise or not remains to be seen. The argument for surveillance testing is that they’ve already announced positive tests for somewhere in the vicinity of three percent of their student body, and surveillance testing enables a community to better isolate infected persons. The arguments against surveillance testing include concerns about contributing to the national testing shortage, a false sense of security for those who receive a false negative in the early days of their infection, etc. In the end, the administration will likely be judged only on the final result: Were they able to keep students on campus without a significant number developing long-term health issues, and—much more drastically—did anybody die?
It’s stark, and it’s scary, but these are the stakes.
