They’ve done it. The powers that be in college football have reached the conference championships, and so far, only one’s been canceled (though the Pac-12 did need to sub in its second-place team in the North). You could call this a testament to fortitude, to determination, to all those other sorts of things, and I’m sure some will, but in reality, it’s just a testament to the fact that these people wanted a college football season, for motivations that are probably multiple (money, their own enjoyment, athletes’ futures, a sense of normalcy, the joy of fans, etc.), and they made it happen.
So here we are.
We don’t really know who has a chance at the playoff. It’s hard to believe that, say, USC does, ranked 13th despite being favored to finish an undefeated Power Five conference champion with the same number of wins as likely playoff-bound Ohio State. With the Sun Belt championship canceled, we think it’s safe to eliminate Coastal Carolina from our headspace, but we could always be surprised on that. In an attempt to sort all this out, we’ll be going through what each team needs to make the playoff, as well as what needs to happen for Coastal Carolina—a joy of a team this year—to make a New Year’s Six bowl. But first, the games that matter, and the games that might:
Games that Matter
Ohio State vs. Northwestern (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST, FOX)
Normally, this would be in the Games that Might category, with Ohio State playing a game of comparable difficulty to most of its schedule this year. The Buckeyes just need to not mess up. Still, it’ll decide whether the last playoff spot opens up, or if it goes to Ohio State instead. So it matters.
Notre Dame vs. Clemson (Saturday, 4:00 PM EST, ABC)
This is the game of the week, not necessarily in an on-field sense (though it could well become that), but in the sense that there’s a wide spectrum of outcomes here, and they all influence the playoff differently. A Clemson blowout win? The Tigers are in. Notre Dame, we’d imagine, is on the fence, thrown into the mix. A Clemson close win? Both teams, we’d guess, are in. A Notre Dame close win? Put the Tigers on the fence, and pencil Notre Dame in as the 2-seed barring an upset in the SEC. A Notre Dame blowout? It’s hard to see Clemson making it, but the committee is human.
Alabama vs. Florida (Saturday, 8:00 PM EST, CBS)
The Tide look to finish an impressive, wire-to-wire, rather unchallenged undefeated regular season. The Gators look to redeem themselves after last week, perhaps with the help of Kyle Pitts, whom the committee evidently views as a difference-maker on par with a starting quarterback. It’s probably not safe to say the Gators are in with a win. It’s probably not safe to say the Tide are safe, even if they lose. But both of those things are likely true, especially if the ACC Championship isn’t all that close.
Games that Might
Oregon @ USC (Friday, 8:00 PM EST, FOX)
The Trojans are undefeated. And if things get weird in the games above (say we get a Notre Dame blowout win and a Northwestern win), an undefeated Power Five champion might look rather appetizing to a committee that does, in nearly 20% of its capacity, represent the Pac-12.
Oklahoma vs. Iowa State (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST, ABC)
On the other end of Power Five champion also-rans, we have two two-loss candidates. Would a conference championship be enough to vault Iowa State over Texas A&M for the next-in-line place? History indicates it would be, albeit narrowly. If Texas A&M were to lose, it would certainly be enough. Which brings us to…
Texas A&M @ Tennessee (Saturday, 12:00 PM EST, ESPN)
The Aggies have playoff motivations. The Vols are trying to salvage something positive from this year. The fact that A&M’s only a two-touchdown favorite in Knoxville should be sufficient indictment of their playoff worthiness—if we’re using the eye test, and the eye test is worth anything (i.e., it’s as good as rating systems), how the hell is Texas A&M ranked ahead of Cincinnati? And yet, here we are. A victory by the Aggies, some particular results elsewhere, and we may have our most undeserving playoff appearer ever. Fittingly, they’d then get incinerated again by Alabama, but still…excuse my editorializing, but people aren’t mad enough about Texas A&M.
Tulsa @ Cincinnati (Saturday, 8:00 PM EST, ABC)
Is there a chance for Cincinnati to make it? Probably not. They’re probably in the same boat as USC. But if things are ugly early in the day Saturday, you can bet the committee will at least be watching this game with interest, if not actively considering the Bearcats.
Playoff Paths
What everyone needs:
Alabama
There is a margin above which the Tide should not lose. There is a margin above which it is grossly statistically improbable that the Tide will lose. The latter is closer to zero than the former, meaning: The Tide are in. But for the sake of Alabama fans sleeping well tomorrow night, they’d probably like to at least lose in a close-ish game (keep it below 20?) if they don’t win. Again, the Tide are in.
Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s situation is trickier. There’s a real possibility Clemson blows out the Irish. They’re 10.5-point favorites. And a blowout, while not necessarily damning, would not make Notre Dame fans feel good, nor should it. On the other hand, if Notre Dame plays Clemson within a score, they can probably feel secure about their next game coming in Pasadena or New Orleans. (or Arlington?)
Clemson
There are universes in which Clemson loses and makes the playoff. They may even be rather common universes. But we don’t know how common they are, so for Clemson to feel safe, they need to beat Notre Dame. Do that, which is expected, and they’re in.
Ohio State
Ohio State’s situation may be the clearest. Win: in. Lose: out.
Texas A&M
The Aggies need to win. The Aggies would like to win convincingly. The Aggies would like Ohio State to lose, the ACC Championship to not be particularly close (preferably with Notre Dame winning), Oklahoma and Iowa State to look bad (with Oklahoma winning), Cincinnati to lose, and USC to lose. They don’t need all those things. But they need at least one of those first two, and possibly more. As far as the SEC Championship goes, they’re in a tricky boat, but our best guess is they want Alabama to win. Yes, their entire résumé was initially built on having beaten Florida. But at this point, it’s built on committee inertia, and Jimbo Fisher would rather not have one more team in the mix.
Iowa State
A convincing Iowa State win, paired with either Notre Dame walloping Clemson or Ohio State losing, might be enough. They’d prefer A&M to lose, and they don’t want Florida climbing back to life, but this narrow path is rather feasible for the Cyclones, compared to what some others are looking at.
Florida
The Gators need to beat Alabama, preferably with a huge game from Kyle Pitts to help justify the LSU loss, and then catch at least one break elsewhere. Maybe two.
Georgia
We would guess Georgia is out.
Cincinnati
The Bearcats want absolute chaos, and they want to blow out Tulsa amidst that chaos. It’s not certain a blowout loss would eliminate Tulsa from the top 25 (who would replace them?), though it’s at least moderately likely, so there’s the catch-22 here in which Cincinnati could rob themselves of a top 25 win by playing well. Still, Cincinnati wants to look the part, on the field, of a playoff team (and they already look close in rating systems, for whatever ratings sytems are worth). And then they need chaos in front of them. It’s extraordinarily unlikely all of this lines up, but if it comes down to A) a two-loss Clemson, B) one-loss Ohio State, C) one-loss Northwestern, D) two-loss A&M, E) two-loss Oklahoma, F) two-loss Georgia, and G) undefeated Cincinnati for two spots…how comfortable would you be betting against the Bearcats?
As an aside here, the situation in front of us demonstrates how dumb the committee is politically for not putting Cincinnati higher, if not Coastal Carolina. They have so little to lose by doing so. Yes, it’s a Power Five-built system (this is not explicitly pointed out enough). Yes, they have an incentive to keep the Power Five powerful. But the chances Cincinnati ends tomorrow looking like either one of the four best teams or one of the four most deserving teams are enormously slim. They could be ranked fifth right now and their chances would still be only something like ten percent. And the committee could still treat Coastal Carolina like trash and leave New Year’s Six bids open for Power Five schools. Just idiotic in an evolutionary sense (by which I mean, the committee’s threatening its own survival with this).
Oklahoma
Can you imagine the exhaustion if we end this with an Alabama/Clemson/Ohio State/Oklahoma playoff? All of this season, for that? The path is a big Oklahoma win (possible), a big Clemson win (possible), an Alabama win (likely), an A&M loss (not likely but possible), and some sympathetic views from the committee about how much better Lincoln Riley’s got those boys playing. As I type this, I begin to think this is what’s going to happen. We might well be headed for a 70-31 Alabama victory over Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl. Godspeed.
USC
Again, the Trojans probably need to eviscerate their opponent, get a lot of luck, and have the argument in the committee room turn strange. Their argument is clear: They’re an undefeated Power Five champion if they win. But the committee seems comfortable, for now, keeping them out.
Northwestern
I don’t see it…but I wouldn’t rule it out if they beat the Buckeyes. They’ll at least be in a lot of ESPN graphics throughout the rest of the day tomorrow if that happens.
Coastal Carolina’s New Year’s Six Push
Well, the simplest path is Tulsa beating Cincinnati. That sends CCU to play the big boys. But if that doesn’t happen…
The Pac-12 championship doesn’t affect this. So along with Cincinnati, that’s two spots ahead of Coastal locked up. Indiana is also ahead of the Chanticleers, with it highly unlikely anything changes that. Ditto Georgia. If the Big 12 Championship isn’t close, the loser may well fall past CCU. If Ohio State beats Northwestern and it isn’t a surprise thriller, the Wildcats should stay behind the Chants. That leaves us with four open New Year’s Six spaces (Cincinnati, the Pac-12 champion, Georgia, and Indiana are each slotted in at this point into the other four), going in the most likely scenario to UNC (the Orange Bowl representative for the ACC), Texas A&M, Florida, and the Big 12 champion. Which means Coastal would really only need one other team to get out of their way. This could be UNC, who’d lose their spot in the Orange Bowl were Clemson not selected for the playoff, with A&M or the Big 12 champion going instead. This could be Florida, who might get their third loss tomorrow, possibly by way of a thrashing. It could be A&M, whose loss probability is something like one-in-four (though the committee might be loathe to drop the Aggies past the Chants). Even if the Big 12 loser does stay ahead of CCU, they’d just need to catch two of those breaks. It’s not all that impossible. The target ranking, if UNC goes to the Orange Bowl, is 10th for Coastal. They need two teams to fall past them. If UNC doesn’t go to the Orange Bowl, it becomes 11th. And again, if Cincinnati loses (a one-in-six probability), Coastal’s in anyway.
