Not-even-two-weeks ago, I wrote of the Mets’ competition in the NL East, “…realistically, unless the Mets have a terribly difficult time against the…*checks schedule*…Pirates and…*doublechecks that the schedule’s built this way*…Pirates over the next week and a half, the picture, at best (for these teams), is going to look very similar to how it looks right now when [trade] discussions really start ramping up.”
Joke’s on me. The Mets went 3-4 against the Pirates. The Mets put Jacob deGrom on the IL. The Phillies took series from both the Red Sox and Marlins. Now, it’s a little bit of a race. FanGraphs’s playoff odds put the Phils 22.3% likely to steal the division, a number that will swell slightly if Washington and Atlanta become sellers, as looks decently likely at this moment (no, I have not learned my lesson about writing off middling NL East teams). They’re two and a half games back. Before the deadline hits, they play two in the Bronx and eight against their friends from Atlanta and Washington while the Mets wrap up this series in Cincinnati then host Toronto and Atlanta for three and five, respectively. The Mets might get Carlos Carrasco back over that stretch. They might get deGrom back at the very end of it. The Phillies are at full strength, or as close to it as a team could ask to be in July. It is, as was said, a little bit of a race.
The Phillies are still in a tight spot, though. While hardly anyone of consequence on their roster hits free agency this offseason (or even the following one), their farm system is among baseball’s worst and they’re dangerously close to the luxury tax, with Roster Resource estimating them just more than four million dollars shy. They could, of course, exceed the luxury tax, but that starts the escalating series of penalties one year sooner with them presumably hoping to contend more strongly over the next few years. They could, of course, empty out the farm system, but again, what assets they have may be more useful next year than now in acquiring present value. A 22.3% chance is a big one upon which to roll the dice. The Mets do have to play thirteen straight against the Giants and Dodgers at one point in August, but the 22.3% number knows that. One could argue it overestimates the probability of deGrom pitching healthily through the season’s last two months (and Carrasco pitching healthily, and Noah Syndergaard returning at all, etc.), but simultaneously, it may be overestimating the probability the Phillies, who’ve gotten more than half their fWAR from four guys (Zack Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, Aaron Nola, Bryce Harper), stay as healthy as they’ll need to.
We’ll see what the next ten days hold. Maybe the decision will be made for Dombrowski & Fuld, one way or the other. But as it stands, it’s a hard, hard call, one not unlikely to end with a bullpen addition and a prayer.
