The 2018 Baltimore Orioles were historically bad.
The 2019 Baltimore Orioles might be worse.
Yes, look for a list of the worst MLB records of all time and you’ll find last season’s effort from Baltimore—47 wins, 115 losses—near the top of the list, behind only the 2003 Tigers in the last 60-some years. And while their current win percentage (.282) falls closer to their 2018 mark (.290) than it does to that of the ’03 Tigers (.265), the fact it’s in between the two does not bode well.
In that context then, the next sentence probably isn’t that shocking:
The Orioles are on pace to allow over 1,000 runs this season, something that hasn’t been done in two decades.
In 1999, the Colorado Rockies, prior to the installation of the humidor at Coors Field, at the height of the steroid era, allowed opponents to score 1,028 runs against them.
This year’s Orioles are on pace to allow 1,037.
Now, the Orioles have reasons for hope. They’ve only played 80 games out of the 162 on their schedule, meaning their fate is far from sealed. Similarly, just because they’ve allowed so many runs so far (512) does not mean they should be expected to allow that many over the entirety of the season. Exceptional performances are more common in smaller sample sizes. And for comparison’s sake, the Mariners have allowed 503 runs to date, though they’ve also played four more games than the O’s.
Still, even if the Orioles allow just 900 runs, it’ll be historic, as no team has allowed 900 or more to be scored on them since the 2008 Rangers, who yielded 967.
Some of this, of course, is due to a league-wide increase in scoring. The total number of runs scored across MLB Regular-Season games peaked somewhere near 25,000 in 2000, and hit its short-term minimum below 20,000 in 2014. Now, it’s on the upswing again, though scoring still pales in comparison to its turn-of-the-millennium heyday.
So how are the Orioles going about their pursuit of this rare accomplishment?
Well, their pitching staff is the only one in the majors with a combined negative WAR. Its ERA is 6.00, and the 5.93 FIP that accompanies that number indicates bad luck has hardly contributed. The Orioles are allowing, on average, more than two home runs a game, another feat they can claim as theirs alone so far this year.
Alex Cobb succumbing to the need for season-ending hip surgery hurt things. Cobb, though projected to have an ERA around 5.00, was at least supposed to garner positive WAR. Instead, he made just three starts, accumulating -0.6 WAR over twelve and a third innings. Which is impressive, but also sad, because Alex Cobb’s had enough to deal with already in his career (specifically, that line drive off his head in 2013).
Beyond Cobb, though, the staff as a whole continues to disappoint. Andrew Cashner and Dylan Bundy have been adequate, and rookie John Means has been a ray of hope, but their other starters—David Hess, Dan Straily, and Gabriel Ynoa, primarily—have combined for -2.6 WAR when starting, making their rotation’s total value, relative to a group of replacement-level starters, less than one win.
The bullpen has been even worse, measuring more than one win less valuable than a crew of replacement-level relievers. They’ve allowed 71 home runs as a unit, which can be partially forgiven because they’ve thrown the sixth-most innings of any ‘pen but is also ten more than the closest challenger.
As a staff, the Orioles’ pitchers have the second-fewest strikeouts, third-most walks, fourth-most hit batters, and third-most wild pitches of any team in the league. They’ve held their opponent scoreless just once all year, back on May 4th when hosting the Rays.
Making matters even worse, the Orioles’ defense has been brutal as well. It’s the second-worst in the league by FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs Above Average (below average, in this case), better than only the Mariners. Starting designated hitter Renato Nunez has cost them an estimated nine runs on defense despite playing only 76 innings in the field. Only third baseman Rio Ruiz has saved the team more than a run and a half, accounting for an estimated four runs saved, only in the top five at his position league-wide.
And while the law of averages offers some hope, the rules of scheduling make things look grim. The Orioles have, by FanGraphs’ estimation, the third-most difficult remaining schedule in the MLB, a slate that includes 14 against the Rays, nine against the Red Sox, seven against the Yankees, three against the Astros, and three against the Dodgers—a combined 36 of their remaining 82 games.
At the very least, the Orioles look poised to eclipse 900 runs allowed with ease. 1,000 might not be a stretch either. Hopefully the MLB has sent a lot of baseballs to Camden Yards.
