With Ohio State struggling and Duke’s résumé still stained by the loss to Stephen F. Austin, Kansas took over the overall number one seed in our bracketology this week. Here’s a look at what this means for the Jayhawks, and who else was making moves over the past seven days:
17% is Very Good
Entering today, Kansas was grabbing the number one overall seed in 17% of our model’s 4,000 simulations. It might not sound like a lot, but it’s significantly more than Duke (13%), Ohio State (10.5%), or Butler (9%), with the rest of the field behind even those teams.
This doesn’t mean Kansas is going to win the national championship. It doesn’t mean they’re more than 17% likely to get the overall number one seed come March. All it means is that the Jayhawks are currently in the best position of anyone thanks to a respectable nonconference performance and a Big 12 that lacks many potential disasters (home against Kansas State looks like the only real land mine as of now) without providing many true challengers (Baylor and West Virginia probably aren’t top-ten teams, and beyond them there might not be a top-30 unit).
Again, it’s only 17%, but for right now, Kansas is the frontrunner for that coveted slot in the bracket, even if Duke’s still the title favorite.
Speaking of West Virginia…
The Mountaineers continue to impress, beating Ohio State yesterday in Cleveland. The St. John’s loss hurts, but the Wichita State, Northern Iowa, and Rhode Island victories are looking better by the day, and it’s plausible that this young, deep team has yet to hit its ceiling. As of now, Baylor’s the only team between them and Kansas in the Big 12. The gap is closing.
Eric Musselman: Good at His Job
Arkansas went into Assembly Hall and beat what’s more likely than not a tournament team in Indiana. It was the Razorbacks’ toughest test to date, and it legitimized their status as an SEC dark horse, though Auburn and Kentucky are still clearly better teams.
Musselman’s guys (who, it should be noted, could have left but were evidently persuaded to stay, either by one another or Musselman) are playing some of the best defense in the country. They don’t score enough to be a title contender, and their rebounding is suspect, but they have the tools to make young guards miserable come March.
Or old guards, for that matter.
Wisconsin’s Ship is Righted
The Badgers dominated Tennessee in Knoxville, washing away the sting of a 1-4 stretch that’s now nearly a month behind them. Tennessee has problems (you can find them below the top line of our NIT Bracketology), but beating a team of their caliber by twenty is noteworthy, especially on the road, and it breathes some life into Wisconsin ahead of a brutal conference slate.
Houston’s Christmas Gift
Houston didn’t do anything particularly impressive over Christmas (Washington, contrary to its reputation, is about as solid of an NIT contender as one can find this time of year), but their three wins in Hawaii shouldn’t be taken too lightly. The Cougars are easy to forget in the AAC, with Memphis rolling, Wichita State rising again, and UConn looking feisty. They’re still arguably the league favorite.
