Whom:
Cubs vs. New York Mets
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
6:40 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Cold. There shouldn’t be precipitation, but it’s supposed to be in the 30’s with the wind blowing in at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Jake Arrieta vs. Taijuan Walker
The Opponent:
The Mets are good. It’s always hard with the Mets, because they seem to be such a mess so often, but the Mets are good. Not as good as the Dodgers or Padres, but right there with the Yankees, honestly. Great pitching. Offense is fine. As for Walker…
Walker’s only 28, but this is the ninth major league season in which he’s thrown at least an inning. Formerly of the Mariners and Diamondbacks, with a short stint in Toronto in 2020, his best season was a 2.5-fWAR year in Arizona in 2017, after which he missed most of two years with a torn UCL that got him Tommy John surgery. Each of his two starts so far have been successful—he’s allowed just three runs over ten and a third, walking five and striking out twelve. Great FIP (2.22) and XwOBA (.298) over that very small sample.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at +115 to win against -125 for their guests, implying something like a 45% chance of victory. The over/under’s at 7½ and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
Nothing too noteworthy, at least that I’ve seen.
Cubs Thoughts:
Personally, I’m just hoping for the sweep to be avoided. It’s possible to beat Jacob deGrom, who’s scheduled to pitch Thursday, but it’s not likely, so splitting tonight and tomorrow’s games, provided they happen, would at least keep things from feeling like they’re spiraling.
I’m curious how Cubs pitchers will handle the cold. Still a little rattled by all those Opening Day walks. At the plate, it doesn’t figure to be anywhere close to as easy as it was on Saturday or Sunday, thanks to both elements and quality of pitching.
Around the Division:
The Cardinals won their opener in Washington, 12-5. The Brewers won their opener in San Diego, 3-1 (Woodruff over Musgrove). The Pirates open in Detroit this evening, as do the Reds at home against Arizona.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Cincinnati (9-6, 26.2%)
2. Milwaukee (9-7, 45.9%)
3. St. Louis (8-8, 18.3%)
4. Pittsburgh (7-9, 0.3%)
5. Cubs (6-9, 9.3%)
