I don’t know whether it’s more exciting, for baseball fans, to see those fighting for the final playoff spots playing head-to-head or in separate simultaneous action. In support of the former: It’s effectively playoff baseball, just beginning a little early. In support of the latter: There’s a magic to the chaos of the final regular season Sunday, when a wild pitch in Miami can make a crowd in Cincinnati go wild.
We should circle back after these next ten days on this topic. We’re about to get a case study. In the National League, all four remaining pursuers of the two playoff spots are going their separate ways. In the AL, the Rangers and Mariners are going against one another seven times in the season’s final week and a half.
Here’s what’s gone down this week, and what’s on deck for the weekend ahead.
The Stars
A good bit’s being made of the Padres’ recent hot streak, and it’s fair. If they pull off the comeback and make this playoff field, it will be among the most amazing end-of-season rallies in baseball history, especially given how big a focus accusations of broad Preller Administration dysfunction have been in recent days. It’s unlikely (the Pads are four games back and would need to pass three separate teams in the standings), but you can’t help but look, and since we’re looking: Xander Bogaerts went 8-for-13 this week against the Rockies, doubling twice, tripling once, homering, and stealing two bases to help San Diego run its winning streak to seven.
In other things that don’t probably matter for playoff spots or seedings, but are worthy of mention: J.D. Martinez homered three times for the Dodgers in their series against Detroit, then homered again last night in their opener of this weekend’s four-game set with the Giants. Ozzie Albies recorded his 100th RBI of the year last night, notching his third and fourth extra-base hits of the year in the process. He’s the third Atlanta batter to reach the 100-RBI milestone this year.
Gerrit Cole went eight innings against the Blue Jays, striking out nine and only allowing one run on two hits, and his wasn’t even the best Yankees outing of the series, as Michael King’s breakout continued with a 13-strikeout stifling of Toronto one night prior, before the Blue Jays rallied to take that game. Among pitchers with October hopes of their own, Rangers deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery went seven on Monday against the Red Sox, striking out eight without walking a batter, but Boston scored three off Will Smith the Elder to hold Texas in check.
The Series
On the National League side:
- The Diamondbacks took both halves of a two-game set with the Giants, pushing themselves more comfortably into fifth place and cutting off San Francisco’s last realistic chance at making the playoff field.
- The Cubs dropped two of three to the Pirates, continuing to open the door to the Marlins and Reds for sixth.
- The Reds did not take advantage of that open door, dropping two of three to the Twins in Cincinnati.
- The Marlins also stuttered, losing two of three against the Mets at home after that big weekend against the Braves.
- The Phillies took two of three from Atlanta, bringing themselves close to a playoff spot while pushing the Braves within theoretical reach of the Dodgers for the NL’s top seed.
- The Dodgers won two of three over Detroit, continuing their pace as the best team in baseball since August began.
- Milwaukee won three of four over the Cardinals, setting themselves up to clinch the Central this weekend.
In the AL:
- The Blue Jays won two of three in the Bronx, doing what they needed to do to stay on the right side of the Rangers–Mariners duel.
- The Astros lost two of three to the Orioles, leaving the AL West well within reach while the O’s put the AL East that much further away.
- The Rays won two of three over the Angels, staying close enough to Baltimore that first place is theoretically possible but not so close as to generate much belief.
- The Mariners swept the A’s, surging back to life after the sweep in Los Angeles.
- The Rangers won two of three over the Red Sox, hanging right there with the pack.
- The Twins won those two of three in Cincinnati, and could clinch the AL Central as soon as tonight.
The Situation
The AL East is only a 1.5-game race, but with the Orioles holding the tiebreaker, the Orioles two up in the loss column, and the Orioles playing Cleveland this weekend while the Rays play the Blue Jays, the situation still heavily favors Baltimore. In the AL West, it’s hard to separate the division from the Wild Card. Combined, they look like this:
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2. Houston: 85–68
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5. Toronto: 85–68
6. Texas: 84–68
7. Seattle: 84–68
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The six two-way tiebreakers here line up as follows: Toronto over Houston, Texas over Toronto, Seattle over Toronto, Houston over Texas, Seattle over Houston, and Texas probably over Seattle. Where does that leave everybody? Well.
The seven games remaining between Texas and Seattle make it such that all the Astros and Blue Jays each have to do to make the playoffs is lose fewer games than whoever loses the seven game quasi-series. If the Mariners lose four of the seven? The Blue Jays and Astros can each make it with three or fewer additional losses. If the Rangers lose five? The Astros can make it with five more losses (remember the tiebreaker), and the Blue Jays can make it with four. If the Mariners lose six? The Astros and Blue Jays can each make it with five or fewer additional losses. The more lopsided those seven games, the better the situation for Toronto and Houston, and that’s without considering the fact whichever team is the quasi-series loser in this scenario still has to play three additional games next week between the two weekend sets.
This was only enough to, entering today, leave Toronto with a 76.1% playoff chance, per FanGraphs, with Houston’s up at 90.8%. But that’s a good place to be in April, and it’s a good place to be today, even if it’s subject to rapid change. This weekend, the Rangers and Mariners play three in Arlington. The Blue Jays have three on the road against Tampa Bay. The Astros host the Royals for a three-game series, and we should add here that while it’s helpful to the Astros’ playoff hopes that Texas and Seattle are handing each other losses, it’s tough on Houston’s AL West hopes that those two are handing one another wins. The Astros still face a lot of pressure on that front.
In the National League, the top four is even more cemented than it was on Monday, while the Giants have effectively bowed out, now trailing by three and a half games and needing to leapfrog three separate teams to make the cut. Here’s how it lines up, with the Cubs having beaten the Rockies earlier today:
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5. Arizona: 81–72
6. Chicago: 80–74
7. Miami: 79–74
8. Cincinnati: 79–75
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The six tiebreakers here: Arizona over Chicago, Miami over Chicago, Miami over Arizona, Cincinnati over Chicago, Cincinnati over Arizona, Miami over Cincinnati (I believe this is settled now, because in the event the Reds were to close the entire 4.5-game gap in intradivision record, the Marlins would have to win their six remaining interdivision games for the two to have any chance of ending up tied, and those six wins would leave Miami 34–30 in that third tiebreaker whereas the Reds are finalized at 33–31). In short, it’s good to be the Marlins and it’s bad to be the Cubs.
Helping the Cubs is that they already won today, and they get two more games against the Rockies these next two days at Wrigley Field. While they do that, the Reds host the Pirates for three, the Marlins host the Brewers for three, and the Diamondbacks play three on the road in the Bronx.
There’s a phenomenon here we’ve explored elsewhere where the large quantity of teams still competing raises the chances one or two of them will finish the season hot. A probability parallel there is that if you roll a pair of dice four times, there’s a solid chance you’ll roll doubles, even if doubles are unlikely on every individual roll. (It’s 52% if rolling four times, 17% on one roll.) Add in that the majority of these teams’ final games are going to come against teams with nothing to play for, and that probability only grows. Someone is going to finish strong, which means the others have to keep up.
The Weekend’s Best Games
It’s hard not to be drawn to the Mariners–Rangers series, but tonight, the Royals make a surprise appearance in this space, riding second-half stud Cole Ragans into battle in Houston against Framber Valdez. Tomorrow, it’s aces wild in Miami, with Brandon Woodruff squaring off with Jesús Luzardo in what could potentially be the Brewers’ clinching game. Sunday? We can’t stay away from Texas forever. Bryan Woo is on the hill for the Mariners. Nathan Eovaldi gets the ball for the Rangers.
Who’s Hot
The Padres now hold the best record in baseball in the month of September, checking in at 13–5. Since August began, the Dodgers remain baseball’s best, sporting 35 wins against just 13 losses.
Among position players, Xander Bogaerts now comfortably enjoys the September fWAR lead, hitting .471 on the month and slugging a mighty .809 despite only having hit four home runs. Since August 1st, it’s still Mookie Betts, whose OBP is now .469 over that stretch.
On the mound, King, Cole, and Tarik Skubal have been the best in the game this month, with King’s per-inning performance leading the others but Cole and Skubal each at a robust 6.5 innings per start. Since August 1st, it’s still Ragans, with a 2.05 FIP over 54 innings of work.
That’s only the best performers, though. We love WPA around here, and it’s worth asking who’s been impacting the playoff race the most. The answer? In September, it’s been Yordan Alvarez, whose 1.43 wins added leads those still on the playoff bubble. His 199 wRC+ over the month’s first 21 days is great, but the timing has been even better.
Closing Thoughts
The extreme short term holds a lot of influence over baseball fans’ perceptions of their teams, and that’s fair. If a team’s on a five-game losing streak and you’ve watched all five games, you’ve spent roughly fifteen hours of your week watching this baseball team lose. We see teams flip all the time, though, and so I think it’s useful to look at who’s played well and who’s played poorly over the last few series, for context against what happens this weekend.
Over the last two series (not counting the Cubs’ win today)
- Arizona: 5–0 (Hot)
- Toronto: 5–1 (Hot)
- Miami: 4–2 (Hot)
- Seattle: 3–3 (Neutral)
- Cincinnati: 3–3 (Neutral)
- Houston: 2–4 (Cold)
- Texas: 2–4 (Cold)
- Chicago: 1–5 (Cold)
Over the last three:
- Arizona: 6–3 (Hot)
- Toronto: 6–4 (Hot-ish)
- Texas: 6–4 (Hot-ish)
- Seattle: 5–4 (Neutral)
- Cincinnati: 5–4 (Neutral)
- Miami: 5–5 (Neutral)
- Houston: 3–6 (Cold)
- Chicago: 2–7 (Cold)
If this logic holds weight, we should come out of the weekend with the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks nearly locked into the field, with the Astros struggling to keep up with this weekend’s Mariners–Rangers loser, and with the Cubs firmly on the outside looking in—independent of tiebreakers. I don’t think it holds weight, though. I’m curious if there’s more predictivity towards it oscillating, even. Let’s try to all remember to circle back on Monday and see who’s “heated up” and who’s “cooled off.”
