A little more than a quarter of the Major League Baseball season remains, which is kind of a lot. There is a lot of baseball to be played. 21 teams hold onto at least some sort of postseason hope, and only two are already effectively locked in. Here’s where each league stands, along with what matters this weekend.
National League
- In (>99% chance): Atlanta, Los Angeles
- Competing: Philadelphia, San Francisco, Milwaukee, Miami, Chicago (NL), Cincinnati, Arizona, San Diego
The easiest way to conceptualize the current NL race is that the Braves and Dodgers are each going to win their divisions and that eight teams are then competing for the other four playoff spots, one of which has to go to a team from the Central, giving the Brewers, Cubs, and Reds a leg up. It’s those eight teams we’re watching this weekend, and the eight break down into four situations.
The first is that enjoyed by the Phillies, Giants, and Brewers. Those three are on the right side of the cut line by multiple games entering the weekend, and each is good enough on paper that this position isn’t accompanied by significant doubt. Of the three, the Brewers have the easiest weekend situation, heading down to Chicago to visit the White Sox, who are out of contention. The Phillies and Giants host the Twins and Rangers, respectively, whom we’ll get to later when we get to the American League.
The second is that enjoyed by the Cubs and Marlins. Neither team is in a very comfortable spot, but they straddle the Wild Card cut line by half a game of one another (the Marlins lead by a win) and each has overachieved to get here. Unlike the Reds, who are there with them in the standings, neither is in freefall and each is solid enough on paper to be believed capable of sticking around this thing. The Marlins had a rough run, but they took two of three from Cincinnati earlier this week to get their feet back under them. This weekend, Miami hosts the Yankees, calling 2003 to mind, while the Cubs go up to Toronto, the tougher draw of the two.
The third is not enjoyed, but it’s occupied by the Reds and Diamondbacks. Each of these two—especially the Diamondbacks—were looking very good earlier in the season. The Reds’ peak came a little more recently, and was a little more brief, but they did enjoy the benefit of having that NL Central competition to deal with, so they had similar hopes. Now, each is trying to right the ship, the Reds losers of eight of nine and the Diamondbacks losers of a full eight straight. The Reds have the better draw, visiting Pittsburgh while the Diamondbacks host San Diego, but the Pirates had a lively week, splitting four with Atlanta.
The fourth is an odd one, and it’s the one occupied by the Padres. The Pads are four and a half games back of playoff position, but they’re only four back in the loss column and if they do pull it off and make the playoffs, they’ll immediately become one of the favorites. FanGraphs gives them just a 31.1% chance of making the field, less than half that of the Giants, but their 2.9% World Series chance is narrowly better than San Francisco’s 2.8%. The Padres are so good on paper, and they have not been that good on the field. There’s an opportunity here in Arizona, one where they could theoretically put the Diamondbacks away.
American League
- Division Favorites (>75%): Minnesota
- Playoff-Likely (>75%): Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Texas, Houston
- Competing: Toronto, Seattle, Boston, New York (AL), Anaheim, Cleveland
The AL is not so neat and tidy as the NL, with no one assured of a playoff position but also fewer teams legitimately threatening. We’ll start at the bottom here.
The Angels, Yankees, Red Sox, and Guardians are approaching last stand territory, with records comparable to their NL peers’ but a tougher cut line to reach. For the Guardians, winning the division is the only realistic possibility, but it comes out to a similar likelihood as that of the three around them.
Of the four, the Red Sox have the best chance, leading the others and sitting four games back of the last team currently in. They also have the best matchup this weekend, hosting the mediocre but not terrible Tigers while the Yankees go to Miami, the Angels go to Houston, and the Guardians go to Tampa Bay. Those are dangerous series for all three, but paradoxically, the Red Sox’ date with Detroit might offer the most downside, since it’s a set Boston should win, whereas at least Anaheim and Cleveland are series underdogs. I don’t think any of the four will be in a spot to completely give up, even if swept this weekend, but it might feel that way.
From there, we get to the Blue Jays and Mariners, where the Blue Jays have a major upper hand but the Mariners are, to use a term, en fuego, winners of seven straight and nine of their last ten. The Mariners haven’t lost a series in nearly a month at this point, and after this weekend, they could go three and a half weeks while playing only one playoff team, with the Royals, Astros, White Sox, Royals again, A’s, Mets, and Reds up next on the schedule. This weekend, though, they have to hold off the Orioles, which is a tough thing to do. The Blue Jays have it a little easier, but not easy, hosting the Cubs.
Next, the Twins, comfortably leading the AL Central (they’re up by three and a half) but by nowhere near enough to start considering the race anywhere close to over. A bad weekend in Philadelphia and a good weekend for the Guardians against the Rays would spell major trouble for Minnesota’s finest, who’ve been yo-yoing like this with the Guardians nearly all year.
Finally, the East and the West, where in each case the worse team on paper leads by a few games, something which matters more with every passing day. The Orioles lead the Rays by three. The Rangers lead the Astros by two and a half. In the Wild Card picture, the Astros are only up by a game and a half on the Blue Jays, while the Rays are up four, so the East teams are in a bit better spot in that regard, but all four should make the playoffs and are around a coin toss at best to win their division.
None of the four have it easy this weekend, which is why we’ve mentioned their series already: The Rays host the Guardians. The Orioles are in Seattle. The Astros host the Angels. The Rangers are in San Francisco. Of the four, I’d rather be the Rays than anyone else, followed by the Astros, but it’s a weekend full of challenges.
The Best Games of the Weekend
Looking at probable pitching matchups, tonight’s best action is probably in Seattle. Kyle Gibson only has a 4.50 ERA, but he’s an innings eater, and Luis Castillo is still sharp and capable. If looking earlier in the evening, it’s more curiosities on at least one side of the matchup: Xzavion Curry against Aaron Civale. Dallas Keuchel against Cristopher Sanchez. Tarik Skubal against Chirs Sale. Reid Detmers against Justin Verlander.
Tomorrow, Justin Steele goes against Chris Bassitt in Toronto, but again, nothing else pops off the page. It’s possible some of this is due to unannounced starters, but it’s probably just a sparser day. One to watch: Brandon Woodruff is making his second start back from the IL for the Brewers. He struck out nine Pirates but allowed two home runs on Sunday in his return.
On Sunday, it gets good. Eduardo Rodriguez is up against Kutter Crawford in the Peacock game, Crawford a pleasant and necessary surprise for Boston this season. In the afternoon, Zach Eflin gets the ball against Guardians rookie Tanner Bibee, while Gerrit Cole matches up against Marlins rookie Eury Pérez. Dylan Cease takes the ball for the White Sox against Freddy Peralta, and Logan Webb pitches for the Giants against Dane Dunning. Bryce Miller opposes Kyle Bradish in Baltimore to close out the afternoon before a Braves/Mets Sunday Night matchup that isn’t what producers thought it would be, but shouldn’t be bad, and could see a lot of dingers.
Who’s Hot
On the week so far, it’s been Pete Alonso pacing the league, homering four times in his series against the Cubs while going five for ten with three walks. Over the month of August, Freddie Freeman is on fire, batting .512 while sporting an .854 slugging percentage which dwarfs most guys’ OPS, even without Freeman getting the on-base part of that equation (Freeman’s OPS on the month is 1.419). Since the All-Star Break, Ha-seong Kim and Cody Bellinger have each been scorching, with Bellinger having driven in 27 in 26 games while Kim’s .482 on-base percentage rivals Freeman’s .517 over the thirty days.
It’s not playoff baseball.
But it’s getting pretty close.
