The two biggest college football games of…
We’re calling this Week 2, right?
The two biggest college football games of Week 2 are…well, ok. A disclaimer: Our 2020 college football coverage isn’t going to be entirely centered upon various Group of Five teams’ possibly non-existent chances of making the College Football Playoff. But when a matchup between the fourth and sixth-best ACC teams qualifies as the game of the week, we’re left no choice.
The two biggest college football games of Week 2 involve Appalachian State and UCF, and no, they aren’t playing each other in some desperate bid for attention, like a child continuously pummelling himself with a shovel while yelling, “Dad! Dad! Did you see that??”
We can talk about those games, but the bigger stories involving college football are happening off the field. We’re waiting on a schedule from the Big Ten. We’re waiting to hear whether the Pac-12’s coming back, and if it’s coming back only a week later than the Big Ten, as rumored. We’re waiting to hear about the Mountain West and the MAC. We’re waiting, and any news that comes out about the Pac-12 or the Big Ten will be more significant than anything that happens on the field, barring a major surprise. Yes, there will be attention paid to Miami and Louisville, because as last weekend showed, the amount of energy being devoted to following college football does not decrease in proportion to the amount of college football being played. But the Miami/Louisville game is most likely to impact the playoff only in that it could help one of the teams involved boost Clemson’s or Notre Dame’s or UNC’s résumé that much further. If one blows the other out, sure, we can consider them as a fringe contender for the second slot in the ACC, alongside those latter two teams, but these teams are hardly in the top twenty in the polls, and that’s with two Power Five conferences and Boise State removed from consideration.
It’s possible, though, that the Big Ten and the Pac-12 will not succeed in making their playoff case, or will get themselves to the table only to have a few six or seven-win teams, none undefeated, competing for love with the likes of an 11-0 Sun Belt champion, or a 10-0 UCF, or even a 9-0 Marshall. That’s a scenario we’ve never seen before, which makes it difficult to predict, so if you’re looking for some potentially meaningful football, set aside College Gameday’s instructions and turn your energy towards these three games (we’re including a bonus game that isn’t “big” but’s still interesting):
Louisiana-Lafayette at Georgia State (12:00 PM CDT Saturday, ESPN2)
Louisiana-Lafayette is looking to open the conference season strong in Atlanta after thoroughly dispatching Iowa State last week. No, the Ragin’ Cajuns aren’t one of the ten or fifteen best teams in the country, even with a consolidated list of teams. But if they keep impressing, we might learn that they’re close, and that could lead to some fun when they play Appalachian State.
Appalachian State at Marshall (3:30 PM CDT Saturday, CBS)
Speaking of Appalachian State, the Mountaineers didn’t look all that convincing in their victory over Charlotte last weekend. Luckily for them, they’re one of the few Group of Five teams with enough cachet to theoretically get away with underwhelming early in the season, provided they win by a comfortable-enough margin—which they did. Marshall looked very convincing in their season opener, but they were playing Eastern Kentucky, so no cachet there yet.
Last year, our model had UCF in the single-digits percentage-wise when it came to playoff likelihood before they lost to Pitt early in the season. Neither of these teams is at early 2019 UCF’s expected level on the field, and their conferences aren’t at the level of the AAC, but given they’re each a favorite in a Group of Five league, the path—though narrower—is more believable for them than it is for, say, Miami or Louisville.
UCF at Georgia Tech (3:30 PM CDT Saturday, ABC)
Speaking of UCF, they still play football, and they’re still rather good at it, and Georgia Tech might be good enough to potentially prove a valuable notch in the belt down the line, as Iowa State could be for Louisiana-Lafayette.
In the scenario in which further coronavirus cancelations and an upset or two whittle away at Big Ten and Pac-12 résumés, and the College Football Playoff Committee’s looking to even out their foursome, an undefeated UCF would presumably be on the mind. As with all Group of Five teams, we don’t really know if it’s possible, but with the coronavirus, we certainly can’t declare it impossible. Style points probably wouldn’t hurt, either.
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If you’re wondering about our model, we’re still hoping to have it released next week, but we may hold off or only release a beta version due to the mediumness of the uncertainty regarding the Big Ten and the Pac-12. If we didn’t know anything about their plans, we’d probably release it and just have a few uncertainty variables thrown in, and if we know their schedules, we can add them to the mix, but knowing the exact amount we do—the Big Ten’s start date and nothing else—inclines us a little more towards waiting and seeing, especially with no real showstopping matchups on the docket until October.
If you have an opinion on what college football predictive modeling you’d like to see, don’t hesitate to tell us. Our model’s very much in development, so we’re receptive to what you want.
