There is a lot of season left. A full 20% of it, in fact. But. Eighty percent of the way through the season, the Seattle Mariners lead the AL West.
Here’s what happened this weekend.
The Stars
Framber Valdez carried a no-hitter through seven innings on Friday, but he racked up 114 pitches while doing it, resulting in his removal before the eighth inning. Tigers rookie Parker Meadows, brother of Austin Meadows, walked it off for Detroit in the ninth.
Corbin Carroll went 6-for-12 in Arizona’s series with the Reds, doubling once, tripling twice, and homering once. He would have homered twice, but Elly De La Cruz uncorked a 100-mph relay throw from the outfield to gun Carroll down at home on an attempted inside-the-parker.
Gerrit Cole struck out eleven and walked none, and DJ LeMahieu homered three times in three games, and the Yankees still could not win a series, all while beanballs flew in St. Petersburg, leading to an angry Randy Arozarena, an uncharacteristically lively Rays crowd, and Brandon Lowe pointing out that the Rays don’t need to worry about the Yankees, because the Yankees are a last-place team.
Ramón Laureano, on the Guardians now, homered twice and doubled twice over the weekend against the Blue Jays. Laureano was designated for assignment from the A’s but has said he thought it was a favor from the organization so he could go try to chase the playoffs. The Oakland A’s. Always thinking of all their stakeholders’ best interests.
In sadder news, Félix Bautista left the Orioles game Friday night with an injured UCL. There’s no update yet on whether he will or won’t need Tommy John, but that was a somber scene.
The Series
On the NL side of things:
- The Dodgers took two of three in Massachusetts, with Mookie Betts marking his return to Boston with a big ovation and a big home run.
- Atlanta took two of three in San Francisco, the Giants holding on last night to avoid a sweep.
- The Brewers swept their three-game set with the Padres, coming back yesterday after trailing 4–1 early.
- The Phillies swept the visiting Cardinals, with Aaron Nola turning in his best start of the season.
- The Cubs took three of four from the Pirates, scoring a combined twenty runs over the last two games and getting a sensational debut from Jordan Wicks.
- The Diamondbacks took three of four from the Reds in a series which included something like eleven lead changes, 28 runs scored in the seventh inning or later, and a fan stealing a home run from Spencer Steer before it was reviewed and called an out.
- The Marlins dropped two of three to the Nationals.
In the American League:
- The Orioles survived the Bautista injury to take two of three from Colorado.
- The Rays won two out of three against the Yankees, with the fracas yesterday taking center stage.
- The Mariners swept the Royals, homering seven times on Saturday.
- The Astros won two of three over Detroit, putting up 17 in yesterday’s finale.
- Minnesota won three of four over the visiting Rangers, who rallied in the ninth on Saturday but failed to take advantage of numerous Twins miscues in yesterday’s extra-inning affair.
- The Guardians won two of three over the Blue Jays, with Laureano’s home run an 11th-inning dagger in the rubbermatch.
- The Red Sox dropped those two of three to the visiting Dodgers.
The Situation
In the competitive divisions:
- The Mariners gained a game on the Astros and a 2.5 games on the Rangers, moving ahead of each by one game, though they’re two up on Houston in the loss column.
- The Rays and Orioles held even, still separated by two in the AL East but three in the loss column.
- The Brewers gained half a game on the Cubs and 2.5 on the Reds, now leading the pair by four and six, respectively (seven on Cincinnati in the loss column).
- The Twins moved half a game further ahead of the Guardians, who now trail by six.
With the Wild Cards:
- The Phillies gained a game on the Cubs, half a game on the Diamondbacks, 1.5 games on the Reds, and two games on the Giants. Philadelphia is now five ahead of San Francisco and Cincinnati, while Chicago leads that pair by two and Arizona, holding the final playoff spot, leads them by 1.5. Miami is three games out, and the Padres are now tied with the Nationals, eight games behind.
- The Red Sox and Blue Jays lost a game on the Astros but gained half a game on the Rangers. Texas and Houston are now tied for the fifth and sixth AL spots, with Toronto 2.5 behind and Boston 4.5 back.
Here’s where it leaves the playoff races:
American League
- Making the Playoffs (>99%): Baltimore, Tampa Bay
- Division Favorites (>90%): Minnesota
- Looking Good (>80%): Seattle, Houston
- Battling It Out (>45%): Texas, Toronto
- Competing: Boston, Cleveland
It’s a tough situation for Texas, who’s fallen from as high as 95% playoff-likely on FanGraphs to 65% today. Some of this is the Mariners’ surge, but more of it is the Rangers falling apart. The Rangers open the week in Queens for three against the Mets.
The Blue Jays have failed to capitalize on the opportunity Texas is creating, but they’re still hanging around. They host the Nationals for three, and while the Nationals are playing their best ball, Washington’s still a better opponent to meet than most of the AL East.
The Orioles have little margin for error above the Rays, but they do get to host three against the White Sox while the Rays go to Miami for a pair. After Wednesday, Baltimore and Tampa Bay will be even on games played.
Atop the West, the Mariners get three against the A’s to open the week while the Astros go to Boston for a trio. For the Red Sox, this is a massive opportunity. For the Mariners, there might be a chance here to establish a little breathing room.
Lastly, the Guardians and Twins go head to head this week in the Central. We might be writing the Guardians off come Thursday morning, but we could also be welcoming them back to the thick of things.
National League
- In (100%): Atlanta, Los Angeles
- Looking Good (>90%): Milwaukee, Philadelphia
- Battling It Out (>45%): Chicago, Arizona, San Francisco
- Competing: Cincinnati, Miami, San Diego
We aren’t ready to write off the Padres yet, but if they fall behind the Nationals, we might have to. They’re down to 2.5% playoff-likely on FanGraphs, they’re eight games back, and the Nationals would make it five teams they’d have to pass. So, San Diego is alongside Cleveland on the chopping block. It’s a 19-team race for twelve spots right now, but we’re getting closer to 17 by the day.
At the top of the league, the gap is still four games between Atlanta and Los Angeles. They’ll meet this weekend in LA, but before that the Braves go to Colorado for three while the Dodgers welcome the Diamondbacks. Those are three dangerous games for Arizona.
While Arizona deals with the Dodgers, the Giants host the Reds in a series which could mark the beginning of the end for Cincinnati or could pull the rug out from under San Francisco’s tenuous hopes. The Giants have the upper hand, leading in the loss column and enjoying a kinder schedule the rest of the way, but the Reds are pesky.
The Brewers visit the Cubs for three, looking to wrap up the NL Central. The Cubs are far from out of the woods, though it’s helpful that the Giants and Reds will lose a combined three games.
Philadelphia hosts the Angels for three, looking to stay hot and start locking up that fourth seed, which is accompanied by home-field advantage in the Wild Card round.
Lastly, the Marlins host that pair against the Rays. It’s a little bleak for Miami, especially with sixteen games left against the Brewers, Dodgers, Phillies, and Braves. Those aren’t even the teams the Marlins are hoping to catch. They’re just good.
The Best Games
Tonight’s best matchup is the late one, with Zac Gallen squaring off with Bobby Miller in Chavez Ravine. There are interesting pairings beforehand, with Lucas Giolito facing Taijuan Walker in Philly, Josiah Gray opposite Kevin Gausman in Toronto, Cristian Javier matched up with Chris Sale in Boston, Xzavion Curry meeting Kenta Maeda in Minnesota, and Andrew Abbott going against Kyle Harrison in San Francisco.
Tomorrow, there are a few atop the ladder. Aaron Civale faces Sandy Alcantara in Miami. Justin Steele welcomes Corbin Burnes at Wrigley Field. Merrill Kelly duels Clayton Kershaw in Los Angeles. Further down, Brayan Bello and J.P. France make an exciting undercard at Fenway, while Gavin Williams meets Pablo López in Minneapolis and Brandon Williamson matches up with Alex Cobb by the Bay.
There are a whole lot of day games on Wednesday, with Sonny Gray and Tanner Bibee the most compelling matchup of the nine. At night, Zach Eflin goes against Jesús Luzardo, while in between, we get Kyle Gibson against Dylan Cease, Kyle Hendricks against Brandon Woodruff, Miles Mikolas against Yu Darvish, Chris Bassitt against Patrick Corbin, Logan Webb against Hunter Greene, Kutter Crawford against Framber Valdez, and Reid Detmers against possibly Cristopher Sánchez. Thursday’s slate is light, but Wednesday is ending August with a bang.
