The Trade Deadline has passed, meaning we’re into the final stretch of this odd little season. Somewhere between 23 and 34 games remain for each team, to presumably be played over the coming month, with September 27th the earliest end date but makeup games a strong possibility in the week that follows (the MLB website has yet to update its Postseason Schedule for 2020, and details about what sounds to be one bubble per league have yet to be announced).
The race is on, and with the shortened season and expanded playoff field, it’s a big pack. Let’s categorize:
Note: Results to Date reflects the team’s record to date. Ability reflects the team’s raw ability, taken from FanGraphs’s Depth Charts rest of season win percentage, which does not incorporate schedule unless I’m sorely confused. World Series Probability and Projected Final Record come from FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds, which does incorporate schedule.
The Favorite
Los Angeles Dodgers (Results to Date: 1st; Ability: 1st; World Series Probability: 19.2%, Projected Final Record: 41-19)
The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. They’re deep. They’re well-rounded. They’ve played well and should continue to play well. It will be stunning if they are not the top seed in the National League.
The Contenders
San Diego Padres (Results: 6th; Ability: 2nd; World Series Prob.: 9.5%; Proj. Final Record: 35-25)
The Padres went all-in at the Deadline, but have little hope of finishing above the fourth seed in the NL unless they manage to pass the Dodgers. They’re on a collision course to face their northerly neighbors in the NLDS, eliminating one of baseball’s two best teams before we’re even into the League Championship Series. Get through the Dodgers, though, and we’ll likely have a new favorite.
Houston Astros (Results: T-9th; Ability: 4th; World Series Prob.: 7.1%; Proj. Final Record: 35-25)
Oakland Athletics (Results: 3rd; Ability: 5th; World Series Prob.: 6.8%; Proj. Final Record: 36-24)
New York Yankees (Results: T-9th; Ability: 8th; World Series Prob.: 6.3%; Proj. Final Record: 35-25)
Tampa Bay Rays (Results: 2nd; Ability: T-12th; World Series Prob.: 6.0%; Proj. Final Record: 38-22)
In the American League, seven teams are roughly comparable to one another, but with three contenders in the Central and only two apiece in the East and West, these guys are in a better place than their heartland counterparts. All are flawed. All could easily be our champion.
Chicago Cubs (Results: T-7th; Ability: T-6th; World Series Prob.: 5.9%; Proj. Final Record: 34-26)
Atlanta Braves (Results: T-7th; Ability: 10th; World Series Prob.: 5.2%; Proj. Final Record: 34-26)
The Cubs and Braves are alike in a number of ways. Each is their division’s clear favorite. Each got a little better at the Deadline. Each is inconsistent. Each has a lot of question marks.
As it currently stands—and a lot can change—it’s slated to be one of these two coming into the NLCS as a heavy underdog against one of the Southern California teams.
Minnesota Twins (Results: 11th; Ability: T-6th; World Series Prob.: 5.9%; Proj. Final Record: 33-27)
Chicago White Sox (Results: 4th; Ability: 11th; World Series Prob.: 5.7%; Proj. Final Record: 35-25)
Cleveland Indians (Results: 5th; Ability: 14th; World Series Prob.: 4.9%; Proj. Final Record: 35-25)
It’s a dogfight in the Central. The Twins entered the year the clear favorite, but have stumbled while their rivals have surged. The White Sox have impressed, playing a Padres-esque fun brand of baseball. Cleveland’s done well, but just traded away one of the best pitchers in baseball for a return that in the immediate term doesn’t make them a whole lot better. All three should make the playoffs, and be formidable once there. It’s just a question of which slots they take. The top of the AL is broad.
There’s a Chance
New York Mets (Results: T-21st; Ability: 3rd; World Series Prob.: 3.6%; Proj. Final Record: 29-31)
The third-best-team-in-baseball-on-paper label in Queens comes largely from Jacob deGrom, as does the World Series Probability. If the Mets can find a way into the playoffs, their roster will be formidable, and terrifying for, say, the Dodgers in the Wild Card Series. There’s a very real chance they do not make it, though.
Philadelphia Phillies (Results: T-13th; Ability: T-12th; World Series Prob.: 3.5%; Proj. Final Record: 31-29)
The Phillies have quietly assembled a strong top of their rotation between Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and an impressing Zach Eflin. Paired with a lineup anchored by Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, and J.T. Realmuto, there’s finally something to like here.
If they can make it.
Milwaukee Brewers (Results: 19th; Ability: 15th; World Series Prob.: 2.2%; Proj. Final Record: 30-30)
Cincinnati Reds (Results: T-21st; Ability: 9th; World Series Prob.: 2.0%; Proj. Final Record: 29-31)
St. Louis Cardinals (Results: T-13th; Ability: 17th; World Series Prob.: 1.4%; Proj. Final Record: 31-29)
It’s very possible a team from this trio passes the Cubs. It’s certain at least one finds their way to October as the NL Central Runner Up. It’s not unlikely two of the three make it in, with one a Wild Card.
The Reds are the most tantalizing on paper, with Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, and Luis Castillo atop their staff. There’s plenty to like about Milwaukee and St. Louis as well, though: Each has an ace (Brandon Woodruff, Jack Flaherty). Each has one of the best bats in the game (Christian Yelich, Paul Goldschmidt). Each has been there recently.
Things don’t look great right now behind the Cubs in the Central, especially with St. Louis having an ungodly number of games remaining on their schedule. But whoever makes it will be very much a factor, and perhaps even knock off the Padres in the first three games.
Toronto Blue Jays (Results: 12th; Ability: 21st; World Series Prob.: 1.4%; Proj. Final Record: 31-29)
The Blue Jays have played well enough to make themselves the clear placeholder for the final playoff spot in the AL. They’re nowhere near the top seven in quality, but they’re a long ways better than the next-closest team down the Great Lakes in Detroit. They’re young. They’re fun. They’re the Toronto Blue Jays of Buffalo.
Holding On
San Francisco Giants (Results: 18th; Ability: 19th; World Series Prob.: 0.9%; Proj. Final Record: 29-31)
Colorado Rockies (Results: 17th; Ability 20th; World Series Prob.: 0.7%; Proj. Final Record: 28-32)
Miami Marlins (Results: T-13th; Ability: 24th; World Series Prob.: 0.4%; Proj. Final Record: 28-32)
The Marlins are getting the most attention of this group, but they’re all right there. None are great. All could sneak their way in.
Not Technically Dead
Washington Nationals (Results: 26th; Ability: 16th; World Series Prob.: 0.4%; Proj. Final Record: 26-34)
Detroit Tigers (Results: T-13th; Ability: 26th; World Series Prob.: 0.1%; Proj. Final Record: 28-32)
The Tigers are .500 and are ninth in the AL, which is important for the playoff picture because a coronavirus outbreak could theoretically sideline the entire first string of one of the teams above them and give them a path in. The Nationals still have Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, Trea Turner, and Juan Soto. Each is technically alive, but the Nationals are 12-20 and the Tigers are the fifth-worst team in baseball on paper and only get to play six more games against the Royals, with the rest coming against Contenders and the Brewers/Reds/Cardinals.
Dead
Arizona Diamondbacks (Results: T-24th; Ability: 23rd; World Series Prob.: 0.1%; Proj. Final Record: 26-34)
Kansas City Royals (Results: T-24th; Ability: 25th; World Series Prob.: 0.1%; Proj. Final Record: 25-35)
Anaheim Angels (Results: 29th; Ability: 18th; World Series Prob.: 0.0%; Proj. Final Record: 24-36)
Boston Red Sox (Results: 28th; Ability: 22nd; World Series Prob.: 0.0%; Proj. Final Record: 24-36)
Texas Rangers (Results: 27th; Ability: 27th; World Series Prob.: 0.0%; Proj. Final Record: 23-37)
Baltimore Orioles (Results: 20th; Ability: 29th; World Series Prob.: 0.0%; Proj. Final Record: 24-36)
Seattle Mariners (Results: 23rd; Ability: 30th; World Series Prob.: 0.0%; Proj. Final Record: 24-36)
Pittsburgh Pirates (Results: 30th; Ability: 28th; World Series Prob.: 0.0%; Proj. Final Record: 21-39)
See you next year. Or in a decade, for some of you.
