You know that part in the movie where the conflict between the protagonists has been resolved and they’re reuniting to fight the bad guy? That’s where we’re at in the 2021 college football story. Next week’s the big fight scene. The following week’s the moment of truth, away from the heart of the fray. This week, we’re rounding the corner, and the action’s picking up.
The Main Characters
Eleven primary characters remain in the College Football Playoff race, and we have eyes on all eleven, because all eleven are somewhat believable. Wake Forest takes down Clemson, beats Pitt in the ACC Championship, and watches the Pac-12 and Big 12 fall by the wayside while leapfrogging Notre Dame and Cincinnati? Doesn’t seem likely, but I’d believe it. Michigan stuns Ohio State, Wisconsin gets revenge on Michigan, the Pac-12 and Big 12 and ACC all eat themselves alive and we get both Cincinnati and Notre Dame in the field? That’s a lot of action, but it’s not unbelievable. Oregon manages to sweep Utah, Michigan State wins out, Oklahoma survives the Big 12 and the committee decides to give Alabama the boot? That’s not that different from some early playoff iterations.
The point is, we currently have an eleven-team playoff race, and regardless of your feelings on how big or small the playoff should or shouldn’t be (I would personally advocate for either a one or two-team playoff this season, based on how this is expected to play out), the eleven-team race is pretty fun, especially because we don’t really know how 12-1 Oklahoma and 12-1 Wake Forest and 13-0 Cincinnati would be viewed, should they come to pass. There’s a lot of intrigue, and for the institutionalists in the room, Georgia looks better enough than everybody else that it’s an exercise of little consequence. The committee appears to have been given the pleasure of selecting Uga’s big New Year’s dinner in Miami. What dish will they select? Of course, it depends on the options.
Before we get to the games, let’s give a quick hit on this week’s rankings. Here’s what our model thought of them (explanation on FPA and the model at large here):
| Rank | Team | Rank w/o FPA | Est. Rank Score | FPA |
| 1 | Georgia | 1 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | Alabama | 3 | 91.1 | 1.9 |
| 3 | Oregon | 11 | 90.2 | 7.3 |
| 4 | Ohio State | 2 | 90.1 | -0.9 |
| 5 | Cincinnati | 7 | 89.6 | 2.8 |
| 6 | Michigan | 5 | 89.4 | 1.9 |
| 7 | Michigan State | 6 | 87.4 | 0.5 |
| 8 | Notre Dame | 4 | 87.2 | -1.4 |
| 9 | Oklahoma State | 8 | 85.4 | 0.9 |
| 10 | Wake Forest | 10 | 79.9 | -3.3 |
| 11 | Baylor | 13 | 79.3 | 0.2 |
| 12 | Mississippi | 18 | 78.2 | 1.7 |
| 13 | Oklahoma | 12 | 78.0 | -4.5 |
| 14 | BYU | 16 | 77.5 | 0.8 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | 14 | 75.5 | -1.6 |
| 16 | Texas A&M | 26 | 74.8 | 4.4 |
| 17 | Iowa | 15 | 74.3 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Pittsburgh | 19 | 74.2 | -0.6 |
| 19 | San Diego State | 20 | 74.1 | -0.3 |
| 20 | NC State | 23 | 73.9 | 1.4 |
| 21 | Arkansas | 28 | 73.6 | 4.4 |
| 22 | UTSA | 9 | 73.6 | -10.8 |
| 23 | Utah | 22 | 73.4 | 0.3 |
| 24 | Houston | 17 | 73.4 | -3.3 |
| 25 | Mississippi State | 29 | 72.0 | 3.7 |
| NR | Purdue | 21 | 71.8 | -1.4 |
| NR | Clemson | 24 | 71.7 | -0.8 |
| NR | Louisiana-Lafayette | 25 | 71.5 | -0.6 |
A few thoughts:
- It’s possible, likely even, that Alabama’s getting more FPA than our model knows. Our model saw them get a boost earlier in the season, back before Michigan State lost to Purdue, but it assumed that boost to be the minimum necessary. Since then, we’ve seen Michigan State get a positive boost, implying Alabama’s may have been larger than our model understood, and we’ve seen other SEC West teams get boosts of their own, which average out to be larger than that of the Tide right now. This might be fair. The SEC West’s tough. But we don’t worry so much about whether it’s far as we do about whether it’s happening, and it’s probably happening. Alabama’s probably further ahead of Oregon, and the rest, than our model knows.
- Oregon stayed ahead of Ohio State, Cincinnati stayed ahead of Michigan, Michigan State stayed ahead of Notre Dame. Two of those three things are favored to resolve themselves this week, but it’s still noteworthy that the rankings are as sticky up top as they are. And while we’re in this part of the slate, notice how Cincinnati’s getting some love. It isn’t enough to outweigh their Group of Five discount, but it’s a pretty solid amount of love. The committee’s defying some precedent with the Bearcats.
- I’ve wondered before how much past years matter, at least subliminally. In a scenario in which it’s 12-1 Oklahoma vs. 12-1 Wake Forest for the final spot, would the committee consider Oklahoma’s historic inability (with the exception of the Baker Mayfield year) to compete in the Playoff? It’s not impossible, no matter what they say, and it’s noteworthy just how harshly the committee is treating the Sooners relative to precedent.
- Houston is finally in the rankings, and that’s big for Cincinnati, who quite possibly needs that second ranked win. Two more weeks to impress the committee on your rival’s behalf, Cougars.
Ok, let’s talk about the games:
Michigan State @ Ohio State – 12:00 PM EST, ABC
The only game between main characters this week has something like a twenty-point spread attached to it. The expectation is that Sparty will go quietly. I’m having flashbacks to 2015.
Michigan State winning would introduce legitimate chaos to the situation, especially with the Spartans possibly a home underdog next week to an unranked team (Penn State). How far would the committee be willing to go when looking for the “best teams?”
It’s unlikely, though. More likely than not, Ohio State will win, and it might finally be enough for them to leapfrog Oregon, if Oregon wins (big if, let’s get to that).
Oregon @ Utah – 7:30 PM EST, ABC
The Ducks are an underdog in Salt Lake City, and while they can still win the Pac-12 with a loss, they probably can’t make the playoff if they fall. If this is as good a game as expected, get excited. We’re close to being guaranteed a rematch in two weeks.
Wake Forest @ Clemson – 12:00 PM EST, ESPN
Wake Forest, like Oregon, is an underdog. We could get some major winnowing here. There are nine lanes at the moment, but if all three of these games listed so far go as expected, we’re down to six. Action!
Iowa State @ Oklahoma – 12:00 PM EST, FOX
Talk about a big noon. The third game in the noon hour, this one in Norman only has a spread of three or four points. Iowa State is beloved by advanced ratings systems despite a number of mind-numbingly disappointing losses on the year (I am so sad, you guys), and Oklahoma’s still re-fastening its belt after getting its pants pulled down last week by Baylor. It is highly unlikely that we don’t see lanes close this week, friends.
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech – 8:00 PM EST, FOX
The Big 12’s nightmare scenario? Iowa State takes down Oklahoma before its final vanquisher, Texas Tech, repeats last week’s trick here against the Pokes. Not impossible, but OK State’s a ten-point favorite.
SMU @ Cincinnati – 3:30 PM EST, ESPN
The Bearcats are far from safe, only two-score favorites against the Mustangs here. Our model looks at a team’s best three wins, and this one’s likely to qualify, but it’ll only really move the needle if it’s a blowout.
One note on Cincinnati: Getting into the top four doesn’t mean they’ll stay there. The committee likes conference championships, but specifically, Power Five championships. Cincy can’t win one of those.
Michigan @ Maryland – 3:30 PM EST, BTN
This game may only exist to build hype for Michigan/Ohio State next week. But then again, some credit to the Wolverines for beating both Penn State and Wisconsin, both of whom are beloved by the ratings systems. The plot from here probably involves a routine loss to the Buckeyes, but the program does seem to have bounced back under Harbaugh this year. *collects twenty dollars from our editor, who asked me to jinx Michigan*
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame – 2:30 PM EST, NBC
Notre Dame’s got a similar thing to Cincinnati going on, where they could enter the top four after next weekend and then get leapfrogged by a conference champion. They need style points, and they need them badly unless all five things are going to break their way (the general expectation is that four will break their way).
Arkansas @ Alabama – 3:30 PM EST, CBS
Our third ranked matchup of the week features a three-touchdown spread. Arkansas, you may be catching the Tide at the wrong time.
One side note here: Mississippi plays Vanderbilt this week, and I doubt the SEC did this intentionally but if you want your potential 10-2 team to look like a playoff candidate, you have them play Vanderbilt and Mississippi State over the season’s final two weeks. One blowout, one win in a prominent ranked game…you can see the three-bid-SEC arguments now, can’t you?
Charleston Southern @ Georgia – 12:00 PM EST, ESPN+
Could Georgia lose this game and make the playoff? Yes. They could. Our model thinks that, given current FPA, a Georgia loss by one point followed by a one-point win in the SEC Championship over Alabama would leave them seventh (with no one else playing any games). Take away FPA’s, though? Third. That’s how good they’ve been so far.
Six More Fun Ones
Memphis @ Houston – Friday, 9:00 PM EST, ESPN2
Houston, as we’ve mentioned, is a big potential chip for Cincinnati. They’re also at some risk of losing here, which you could think would reflect well on the AAC’s depth but the committee won’t think would reflect well on the AAC’s depth.
Nebraska @ Wisconsin – 3:30 PM EST, ABC
Wisconsin’s a growing character in the playoff chase, though they’ve yet to clinch the Big Ten West, and clinching the Big Ten West won’t be easy. Of anyone in their conference, they might have the best ability to give Ohio State a fight. That game’s currently penciled in for December 4th in Indy. Again, though: It’s penciled rather lightly, partially because Nebraska could definitely beat them here. Nine-point ‘dogs right now.
Baylor @ Kansas State – 5:30 PM EST, FS1
The ultimate Big 12 apocalypse would involve Kansas State beating Baylor here after Iowa State upsets Oklahoma and before Texas Tech burns its own stadium to the ground with Oklahoma State trapped inside. It would leave five teams within one game in the top half of the conference standings. I don’t know all the scenarios there.
Oh, also, Kansas State is evidently favored here. Re: Baylor: Yikes, Oklahoma.
UAB @ UTSA – 3:30 PM EST, ESPN+
UTSA’s still undefeated, and if they can survive as one-score favorites here, they’ll likely enter the Conference USA Championship 12-0. There, they might be underdogs against Marshall. So basically, enjoy UTSA while we have them, because as much as we love our Roadrunners, they might not be long for this world.
Virginia @ Pittsburgh – 3:30 PM EST, ESPN2
Pitt’s trying to wrap up a division title. Virginia’s trying to steal it from under that Panther nose. Two-score spread in Pitt’s favor.
Syracuse @ NC State – 4:00 PM EST, ACCN
NC State has a weird little backdoor route to making the ACC title game, needing to win their next two while Wake loses their next two. This line’s around eleven or twelve, which might be narrower than you’d think.
Overall Expectations
Using SP+ as a guide, the likeliest number of lanes to close this week is three, with the weird Michigan lane (where Michigan State goes 12-1 and Michigan goes 11-1), the Wake Forest lane, the Oregon lane, and the Big 12 lane the likeliest to shut down, in order. If we get a lot more than that, of course, we may have to open some lanes back up (we could technically see six lanes close, and if that happens, we’ll have to open one for Mississippi, start looking at a 10-2 Michigan résumé, etc.), but four are at significant risk, with three more likely than not to be finished off. It’s not complete chaos, but the pathway to that remains open.
Viewing Guide
Tonight’s all about Houston, which is in turn all about Cincinnati. Wake Forest/Clemson might be the best of that noon trio on Saturday. In the afternoon, SMU/Cincinnati’s the most meaningful but Nebraska/Wisconsin could be fun. In primetime, it’s Oregon and Utah. And for the late night focus, I’d offer Arizona State and Oregon State, which should be solid and should feature at least one team not technically out of the conference title race.
Enjoy. We’re getting close to the thrilling (we hope) conclusion.
