Well, well, well. If it isn’t two series that might go seven games.
What Happened
Los Angeles 6, Atlanta 5
To feel the relief Gavin Lux must have felt.
The 23-year-old top prospect, most often a middle infielder, was in a semi-unusual spot for himself out in center field, when, the sun in his eyes in the middle innings, he dropped an Austin Riley fly ball that sparked a four-run Atlanta rally in the fourth. It was a difficult play. But it hung heavy over the game, a game the Dodgers had led through three off of Corey Seager’s second straight first-inning two-run home run. It hung heavy as Atlanta tacked on a fifth in the fifth. It hung heavy as the top of the Dodgers order went down in order in the seventh. In the eighth, though, Will Smith found a hole, A.J. Pollock also found a hole, and with one out, Cody Bellinger, who struggled mightily against fastballs on the year, poked one into the seats in right to tie the game. The place was up for grabs. The series had turned. And three batters later, Mookie Betts smoked a double to right field, scoring Chris Taylor to give the Dodgers a 6-5 lead they’d go on to hold.
To feel the pain Luke Jackson must have felt.
The Atlanta setup man, so strong over the regular season (1.98 ERA; 4.09 xERA; 3.66 FIP), followed the gameplan. He threw Bellinger a fastball. He learned from the Giants’ mistakes. Bellinger hit it anyway.
Atlanta still leads the series.
But it doesn’t feel that way.
Houston 9, Boston 2
This game was tied heading into the ninth. The Red Sox had a lead going into the eighth.
We’ve been very critical of the Dodgers for using Max Scherzer in Game 5 of the NLDS. It was unnecessary, and it jumbled up their pitching to start the NLCS, and perhaps through the whole of the series. We aren’t quite as opposed to Alex Cora turning to Nathan Eovaldi last night in the ninth, but…yeah, maybe a bad call.
A thing about the Red Sox’ bullpen is that it’s bad. It’s not bad by major league standards, but by pennant contender standards? Not a lot of guys out there you can trust, which Cora made rather clear going with Eovaldi, a decision that backfired in every way imaginable. Yes, there was some help from home plate umpire Laz Diaz, who was, unfortunately, atrocious all game and missed a two-out strike three call with the score still tied. But Eovaldi allowed the leadoff double to Carlos Correa. Eovaldi still could have finished the at-bat against Jason Castro (the batter in question, who singled home Correa following the missed call). Eovaldi still could have gotten out of the inning. And Cora didn’t necessarily need to use Eovaldi in the first place. Ryan Brasier, an actual reliever with more rest than Eovaldi, may have been a better choice. But Eovaldi is, to be fair, enough better than Brasier & Co. on normal rest that it made it a tough decision given the rest factor (unlike Scherzer vs. Kelly & Co. in Los Angeles), and Eovaldi has two more days now to rest before presumably starting Game 6 (unlike the one day Scherzer had before a potential Game 1 start). Anyway, the Xander Bogaerts second-inning home run turned out inconsequential and the Jose Altuve eighth-inning home run to tie it off Garrett Whitlock, trying to navigate a second inning of work, turned out rather consequential in the end. Tie series. Best of three now, Astros have home-field advantage.
The Heroes
Win Probability Added leaders, from FanGraphs:
- Bellinger (0.41)
- Betts (0.32)
- Castro (0.30)
- Nick Pivetta (0.21)
- Bogaerts (0.19)
- Altuve (0.18)
What It Means
The Dodgers, so close to being on the very brink, are back to World Series favorites, at least on FanGraphs (haven’t seen odds yet). It’s close, though. Los Angeles is at 26.3%. Atlanta’s at 22.5%. The AL pair is in between.
It’s anybody’s ballgame.
Other Notes
- Pivetta worked five one-run innings, bouncing back from an Alex Bregman first-inning home run to not dominate, but something close to cruise.
- Zack Greinke didn’t work out for the Astros. Four outs. Three walks. One home run. Two earned.
- Cristian Javier, Phil Maton, Kendall Graveman, and Ryan Pressly carried the ship for the Astros, throwing the last seven innings without allowing a run, striking out nine while walking just three.
- Yordan Alvarez was on base three times for the Astros. Michael Brantley doubled two batters after the Castro single to really break the game open.
- Castro was a seventh-inning pinch hitter for Martín Maldonado. It was just his sixth plate appearance of the postseason.
- The Astros held Kike Hernández to just one hit. Bogaerts had a double in addition to the home run for the Red Sox.
- The Red Sox had Christian Arroyo on third with just one out after his triple in the fourth and failed to add any more runs.
- The Dodgers bullpen allowed just one run while recording 16 outs. Kenley Jansen, Justin Bruihl, and Joe Kelly combined to strike out six batters and allow just one hit.
- Betts was on base four times for Los Angeles.
- Lux drew two walks before Pollock pinch-hit for him in the sixth.
- Eddie Rosario was on base three times for Atlanta, as were Freddie Freeman and Joc Pederson.
- Atlanta did not record an extra-base hit.
- Charlie Morton was uncharacteristically wild, walking six batters. He only allowed two runs through five innings, though.
- Walker Buehler was also oddly wild, walking three through just three innings and two-thirds.
***
Now, today. No clinching opportunities yet. We go in order, which means we begin in the American League:
The Basics
Where: Fenway Park
When: 5:08 PM EDT
Broadcast: FS1
Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale (BOS); Framber Valdez (HOU)
Odds: BOS -120; HOU +110; o/u 9½ (o -115) [English translation: The Red Sox are roughly 53% likely to win; the Astros are roughly 47% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is something like 9.6]
The Details
Framber Valdez had a rough go of it in Game 1, recording just eight outs while allowing three runs, two of them earned. He’s likely had some bad luck this postseason (his FIP’s well below his ERA on the tiny sample) but there isn’t a ton of confidence there.
Neither, believe it or not, is there much confidence in Sale, who’s notched just eleven outs over two starts now, and has allowed six runs.
Expect both to be on quick hooks.
It’s supposed to be a little warmer today, with the wind calmer but still blowing out. For the Red Sox, expect Eovaldi, Pivetta, and Eduardo Rodrguez to be unavailable. For the Astros, expect Cristian Javier and Greinke to not pitch, and keep an eye on Brooks Raley, who’s thrown a combined 43 pitches over the first two games in Boston.
The Stars
Of course it was Castro last night, and not one of the Altuve/Correa/Bregman crew. We’ll see who shows up tonight. The Red Sox are hoping it’s one of their own relievers.
***
And in the NL:
The Basics
Where: Dodger Stadium
When: 8:08 PM EDT
Broadcast: TBS
Starting Pitchers: Julio Urías (LA); TBD (ATL)
Odds: LA -218; ATL +195; o/u 8 [English translation: The Dodgers are roughly 68% likely to win; Atlanta’s roughly 32% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is eight]
The Details
Who will the visitors start? It’s unclear, and it doesn’t matter too much, given it’s already been deemed a bullpen game. It’s either going to be all hands on deck or a bit of mop-up duty, with Max Fried lined up to start Game 5 on normal rest.
It’s worth noting that in addition to missing Ronald Acuña Jr., one of the best baseball players alive, Atlanta’s also without Mike Soroka, a very good young pitcher. Remarkable that they’re here right now.
There’s a narrative going around asking whether Atlanta can bounce back from last night’s loss, and whether they can bounce back if they lose again tonight. It cites last year’s similar fall to the Dodgers, in a series Atlanta led 2-0 and 3-1. Some variants cite Atlanta’s “youth.”
Freddie Freeman is a grown-ass man.
A thing about baseball is that these guys have been dealing with pressure their whole lives. It’s a pressure-filled game. From Little League on up, there are crucial moments, and sometimes those moments go very, very badly. When they do, you have to go out there again. Sure, sometimes the pressure gets to major leaguers—the yips and all that are real. But these guys have most likely bounced back before. So don’t put too much stock in it.
For the Dodgers, there’s new life. Tonight should be electric in the Ravine.
The Stars
Mookie Betts’s career OBP is .373. His career postseason OBP is .367. For those wondering, even .367 would’ve ranked 21st in baseball this year, and that’s a slightly below-average year for Mookie Betts. I’m not sure we’re grasping how good this man, second in fWAR in all of baseball since debuting in 2014, is. Just a sensational player, and his postseason OBP this year, so far, is .475. A blast to watch him play.
We’ll see how ready Urías is. He only threw fourteen pitches in Game 2, so he should be fine, but they were high-pressure pitches.
