FanGraphs is releasing their trade value rankings this week, and they have Zac Gallen slotted as the 18th-most valuable player in the league in this paradigm (“this paradigm” meaning, what he would command in a trade right now).
Gallen is remarkably valuable. Only 25, he has a 3.70 career FIP across nearly 200 innings, and he won’t even be eligible for arbitration until the 2022-23 offseason, putting him under club control through 2025.
The Diamondbacks should trade him.
Gallen’s risky. He’s had a few injuries. He’s been vocal about his disdain for the foreign substance double standard, implying he perhaps has dabbled in the foreign substances at times. ZiPS projects him to gradually slide from 3.0 fWAR to 2.5 fWAR over the next four years (some of this may be the risk on the low end of projections for a 25-year-old pitcher), and while that’s very good, it’s not irreplaceably good.
The Diamondbacks already have the fifth-most valuable farm system in baseball (again, per FanGraphs). Cashing in on Gallen now would vault them at least into the top four, and perhaps into the top two or three (there’s no catching the Rays), with the added bonus that cashing in on Gallen in a market starved for starting pitching means the value they get for him should outpace his worth in an average year.
Yes, the Diamondbacks have Ketel Marte through 2024. Yes, they have Carson Kelly through 2024 as well. Yes, four of their six top-100 prospects have ETA’s of 2023 or earlier. I understand the idea to try to open the window in 2023 or 2024, but you’ve got Josh Rojas through 2027, you’ve got all these soon-to-debut guys through at least 2027, and you’re playing in a division in which it’s probably going to take a hell of a lot of firepower to get anything more than a do-or-die playoff game unless playoff expansion happens in the imminent future, meaning a top-five farm system might not cut it even if it bears a miraculous harvest of fruit. The Dodgers aren’t going anywhere. The Padres aren’t going anywhere. You can never count out the Giants. You might need to be top-two.
Cash in now. Load up for the future. You can still open the window in 2023 or 2024, and you can keep it open longer.
