It’s Dakota Marker week. It’s Dakota Marker week!
We’re going to try going conference by conference here, focusing on playoff probabilities and the chances teams make their conference championship. If you want this for the FBS, click here. Some fine print:
- Probabilities come from this morning, updated to account for weeknight games this week.
- Movelor is our model’s power rating system. It gives us spreads.
- Our model currently only accounts for two-way and three-way ties that can be solved by direct head-to-head. No other conference tiebreakers are included in our model yet this year. We’ll start adding more in another week or two.
- We’re only focusing on games with conference championship and playoff impact. That leaves us with plenty of games, but there are always games left out.
- When we list out the standings, we only go down far enough to include teams with a 5% or better chance of making their conference title game.
MVFC
Standings:
- North Dakota State: 4–0
- South Dakota State: 3–0
- North Dakota: 3–0
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Illinois State at South Dakota (South Dakota by 7.7)
- Murray State at Youngstown State (Youngstown State by 22.6)
- Northern Iowa at Southern Illinois (Southern Illinois by 14.4)
- Indiana State at North Dakota (North Dakota by 31.9)
- North Dakota State at South Dakota State (North Dakota State by 7.6)
Playoff probabilities:
- Illinois State: 11% right now, 30% with a win, 3% with a loss
- North Dakota: 94% right now, 95% with a win, 64% with a loss
- North Dakota State: 100%
- South Dakota: 28% right now, 37% with a win, 6% with a loss
- South Dakota State: 100%
- Southern Illinois: 49% right now, 56% with a win, 15% with a loss
- Youngstown State: 38% right now, 40% with a win, 5% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- North Dakota: 17% right now, 17% with a win, 6% with a loss
- North Dakota State: 62% right now, 83% with a win, 12% with a loss
- South Dakota State: 21% right now, 66% with a win, 2% with a loss
The thing of interest here is Movelor putting the NDSU/SDSU line at 7.6. Movelor doesn’t consider injuries and Chase Mason’s status is still unknown. That makes it even more interesting that the sportsbooks which have listed a line already only have the Bison favored by 3.5. FCS prices are often more expensive than FBS prices, and limits are often smaller. FCS betting markets aren’t as efficient as they are for most games between power conference teams. I’d lean with Movelor? Not investment advice.
For a little more fun: Movelor gives NDSU a 51% chance of winning the national championship if they win this game. For South Dakota State, the number is 19%. Together, there’s a 41% chance that tomorrow’s winner is also the national champion. Business as usual in Brookings.
Big Sky
Standings:
- Montana: 3–0
- UC Davis: 3–0
- Montana State: 3–0
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Montana at Sacramento State (Montana by 4.0)
- UC Davis at Northern Colorado (UC Davis by 14.1)
- Northern Arizona at Idaho State (Northern Arizona by 0.2)
- Montana State at Cal Poly (Montana State by 26.4)
Playoff probabilities:
- Cal Poly: 1% right now, 9% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Montana: 99% right now, 100% with a win, 97% with a loss
- Montana State: 100% right now, 100% with a win, 98% with a loss
- Northern Arizona: 55% right now, 76% with a win, 33% with a loss
- Sacramento State: 26% right now, 52% with a win, 9% with a loss
- UC Davis: 96% right now, 99% with a win, 84% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Montana: 16% right now, 22% with a win, 7% with a loss
- Montana State: 72% right now, 73% with a win, 55% with a loss
- Sacramento State: 1% right now, 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
- UC Davis: 10% right now, 11% with a win, 3% with a loss
It’s a big one tonight in the state of Sacramento. If you’re a late-night college football type, you’re going to love Montana’s quarterback, Keali’i Ah Yat.
UAC
Standings:
- Tarleton State: 4–0
- Abilene Christian: 3–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Tarleton State at Eastern Kentucky (Tarleton State by 20.1)
- North Alabama at Austin Peay (Austin Peay by 16.6)
Playoff probabilities:
- Austin Peay: 45% right now, 51% with a win, 8% with a loss
- Eastern Kentucky: 2% right now, 14% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Tarleton State: 100%
Conference championship probabilities:
- Austin Peay: 1% right now, 1% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Eastern Kentucky: 0% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Tarleton State: 81% right now, 83% with a win, 65% with a loss
ACU is off this weekend.
Ivy League
Standings:
- Harvard: 2–0
- Penn: 2–0
- Princeton: 2–0
- Dartmouth: 1–1
- Yale: 1–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Columbia at Dartmouth (Dartmouth by 17.0)
- Harvard at Princeton (Harvard by 13.5)
- Penn at Yale (Yale by 9.2)
Playoff probabilities:
- Dartmouth: 67% right now, 73% with a win, 27% with a loss
- Harvard: 95% right now, 98% with a win, 80% with a loss
- Penn: 42% right now, 77% with a win, 30% with a loss
- Princeton: 6% right now, 23% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Yale: 56% right now, 68% with a win, 19% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Dartmouth: 10% right now, 11% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Harvard: 53% right now, 59% with a win, 24% with a loss
- Penn: 12% right now, 28% with a win, 7% with a loss
- Princeton: 4% right now, 19% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Yale: 21% right now, 28% with a win, 1% with a loss
It’s important to keep noting that our model doesn’t have any data to work off of when it comes to how the committee will treat Ivy League at-large candidates.
CAA
Standings:
- Rhode Island: 4–0
- Monmouth: 3–0
- Villanova: 4–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Bryant at Rhode Island (Rhode Island by 22.1)
- William & Mary at New Hampshire (New Hampshire by 7.1)
- Monmouth at Hampton (Monmouth by 22.7)
- Albany at Villanova (Villanova by 26.4)
Playoff probabilities:
- Monmouth: 92% right now, 94% with a win, 65% with a loss
- New Hampshire: 4% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Rhode Island: 76% right now, 79% with a win, 26% with a loss
- Villanova: 91% right now, 93% with a win, 51% with a loss
- William & Mary: 13% right now, 38% with a win, 1% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Monmouth: 51% right now, 53% with a win, 14% with a loss
- Rhode Island: 39% right now, 42% with a win, 8% with a loss
- Villanova: 7% right now, 8% with a win, 1% with a loss
- William & Mary: 2% right now, 6% with a win, 0% with a loss
Make or break for William & Mary.
Southland
Standings:
- Lamar: 3–0
- Southeastern Louisiana: 3–0
- Stephen F. Austin: 3–0
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Southeastern Louisiana at Houston Christian (Southeastern Louisiana by 19.3)
- Lamar at Northwestern State (Lamar by 27.7)
- Stephen F. Austin at East Texas A&M (Stephen F. Austin by 18.4)
- Incarnate Word at UTRGV (Incarnate Word by 6.2)
Playoff probabilities:
- East Texas A&M: 0% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Lamar: 52% right now, 53% with a win, 16% with a loss
- Southeastern Louisiana: 64% right now, 68% with a win, 21% with a loss
- Stephen F. Austin: 94% right now, 97% with a win, 73% with a loss
- UTRGV: 1% right now, 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- East Texas A&M: 0% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Lamar: 7% right now, 7% with a win, 2% with a loss
- Southeastern Louisiana: 23% right now, 25% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Stephen F. Austin: 70% right now, 74% with a win, 39% with a loss
We’re including UTRGV in here because if Movelor’s still off on anyone, it’s the brand-new football team who’s covered Movelor’s spread in all seven games of their existence. Worth keeping an eye on until that stops happening.
SoCon
Standings:
- Mercer: 4–0
- Western Carolina: 4–0
- Chattanooga: 2–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- VMI at Mercer (Mercer by 30.7)
- Chattanooga at Samford (Chattanooga by 8.1)
Playoff probabilities:
- Chattanooga: 5% right now, 7% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Mercer: 84% right now, 85% with a win, 48% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Chattanooga: 5% right now, 7% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Mercer: 59% right now, 59% with a win, 40% with a loss
Only three SoCon teams are above .500 overall right now. Furman’s the third, not Chattanooga.
SWAC
Standings, East Division:
- Jackson State: 3–0
- Alabama State: 2–1
- Bethune-Cookman: 2–1
Standings, West Division:
- Prairie View A&M: 4–0
- Texas Southern: 3–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Bethune-Cookman (Bethune-Cookman by 16.4)
- Alabama State vs. Alabama A&M (Alabama State by 13.1)
- Jackson State at Grambling State (Jackson State by 20.7)
Playoff probabilities:
- Alabama State: 34% right now, 42% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Jackson State: 3% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Alabama State: 4% right now, 5% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Bethune-Cookman: 4% right now, 4% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Jackson State: 80% right now, 81% with a win, 63% with a loss
Jackson State has the head-to-head over Alabama State.
OVC–Big South
Standings:
- Tennessee Tech: 4–0
- UT Martin: 3–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Southeast Missouri State at Tennessee Tech (Tennessee Tech by 18.5)
- Gardner-Webb at Lindenwood (Lindenwood by 0.1)
Playoff probabilities:
- Gardner-Webb: 9% right now, 18% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Southeast Missouri State: 4% right now, 35% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Tennessee Tech: 99% right now, 100% with a win, 94% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Southeast Missouri State: 4% right now, 35% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Tennessee Tech: 89% right now, 93% with a win, 52% with a loss
Besides a trip to Kentucky, this should be Tennessee Tech’s toughest regular season game left.
Patriot League
Standings:
- Lafayette: 3–0
- Lehigh: 2–0
- Georgetown: 1–1
- Holy Cross: 1–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Lehigh at Fordham (Lehigh by 25.9)
- Colgate at Holy Cross (Holy Cross by 9.9)
Playoff probabilities:
- Holy Cross: 8% right now, 10% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Lehigh: 99% right now, 99% with a win, 93% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Holy Cross: 8% right now, 10% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Lehigh: 79% right now, 79% with a win, 58% with a loss
Pioneer League
Standings:
- Presbyterian: 3–0
- Drake: 3–0
- Dayton: 3–1
- Butler: 3–1
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Presbyterian at Dayton (Presbyterian by 9.7)
- Drake at Marist (Drake by 17.1)
Playoff probabilities:
- Dayton: 4% right now, 14% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Drake: 46% right now, 50% with a win, 13% with a loss
- Presbyterian: 82% right now, 94% with a win, 48% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Dayton: 4% right now, 14% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Drake: 39% right now, 43% with a win, 13% with a loss
- Presbyterian: 53% right now, 64% with a win, 19% with a loss
Drake’s only losses were to South Dakota and South Dakota State, but the at-large path isn’t all that realistic even if they do keep winning. No quality wins to obtain. One thing to note: We haven’t started looking into how a Presbyterian vs. Drake tie would shake out. They aren’t on each other’s schedule this year.
NEC
Standings:
- Central Connecticut State: 3–0
- Duquesne: 3–0
This week, with Movelor spreads:
- Duquesne at Wagner (Duquesne by 16.6)
Playoff probabilities:
- Duquesne: 71% right now, 74% with a win, 48% with a loss
Conference championship probabilities:
- Duquesne: 69% right now, 73% with a win, 44% with a loss
CCSU’s off this weekend. Those two play on November 15th, the second-to-last Saturday of the FCS regular season.
MEAC
This week, with movelor spreads:
- Delaware State at North Carolina Central (North Carolina Central by 15.3)
- South Carolina State at Norfolk State (South Carolina State by 13.2)
- Morgan State at Howard (Morgan State by 2.4)
Conference championship probabilities:
- Delaware State: 8% right now, 35% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Howard: 4% right now, 8% with a win, 1% with a loss
- Morgan State: 10% right now, 16% with a win, 3% with a loss
- Norfolk State: 1% right now, 3% with a win, 0% with a loss
- North Carolina Central: 54% right now, 61% with a win, 16% with a loss
- South Carolina State: 23% right now, 26% with a win, 7% with a loss
Because the MEAC only has six teams right now, they spend the first eight weeks of the season playing nonconference. Happy Opening Week, then, to MEAC conference play.
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