1. Holy (insert expletive of your choice).
What a day. Did the Cubs get some help? Yes. Clayton Kershaw was an inexplicable mess, and, well, that’s kind of it. The Cubs won those two games. We’ll get into how they did it, but those were legitimate victories.
2. Kyle Hendricks got right.
Will he stay right? We’ll see. But for the day, Hendricks turned in everything you’d hope for out of your ace in the front half of a doubleheader, setting the Cubs up for a comfortable win while sparing the bullpen from throwing a single pitch.
3. How about those homegrown pitchers?
Keegan Thompson worked around trouble. Justin Steele turned in a dominant ninth. And with some help from their friends, the pair triumphed over a Trevor Bauer-led collection from one of the best staffs in baseball.
4. What a day for David Bote.
Lest you’ve forgotten, in addition to the walkoff two-strike poke into right field and the spectacular defensive showing, it was Bote’s rocket off the left field wall in the first inning of Game 1 that broke things open for the home team.
We’d been saying Bote was hitting the ball hard. He got some results for it yesterday.
5. Was Ildemaro Vargas a spark?
I’m not sure he was or wasn’t, but him scoring from second on that wild pitch in the first game felt like a spark to me, and I’m not sure every Cub would have made that happen (through no fault of their own).
6. The bullpen is still pretty fresh today.
Rex Brothers: 4 pitches.
Ryan Tepera: 8 pitches.
Andrew Chafin: 14 pitches.
Craig Kimbrel: 15 pitches.
Justin Steele: 18 pitches.
Dillon Maples: 21 pitches.
Some of those guys might be back-shelf options, but David Ross could theoretically turn to any of them tonight. The day after a doubleheader. That’s nice.
7. We almost didn’t talk about that Javy Báez home run.
That would have been malpractice. What a moment that was.
***
Around the Division:
I neglected to include Monday’s results in yesterday morning’s writeup, so since we’ve last visited the scoreboard, the Brewers lost twice to the Phillies, the Cardinals beat the Mets on Monday and were postponed last night, the Pirates split a pair in San Diego, and the Reds were thumped yesterday by the White Sox. Each is scheduled to play that same opponent today or tonight, with the Cardinals and Mets playing what’s gotta be the Mets’ third doubleheader of the year, right? Is it more than that? Feels like it hasn’t just been two.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 17-12, 28.7%
2. Milwaukee: 17-13, 49.6%
3. Cubs!: 14-16, 9.9%
4. Cincinnati: 13-15, 11.5%
5. Pittsburgh: 13-16, 0.3%
The Cardinals did get to play the Pirates over the weekend, but they also took advantage of that (which the Cubs, to cite an example, did not when given the same opportunity), and they get the Rockies this weekend after dodging Jacob deGrom. They’re doing things well right now.
In other divisional news, Christian Yelich is back on the IL with his back issue after just one game off it. He did get two hits while off it, but still concerning for the former MVP.
Up Next:
The Cubs, and I’m very happy to be saying this, go for the series sweep tonight.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
6:40 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Nicer today. Still cool (high 40’s), but not quite as cloudy, and a little less humid. Wind blowing in from right field at five to ten miles per hour, but potentially shifting to blow from right to left as the game goes on.
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Walker Buehler
The Opponent:
Buehler’s pitching well, as is the norm for him. Over five starts, he’s worked 31 and a third innings and has a 3.16 ERA backed by a 3.08 FIP to show for it. His xERA is 4.49, meaning he’s worked around some uncharacteristically hard contact.
One thing that jumps out about Buehler so far is that he’s hardly walked anybody. I’m curious if that, combined with the hard contact, might point to too many grooved pitches. Something to keep an eye on.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +145 underdogs against a -175 line for the Dodgers, which means they’re a bit less than 40% likely to win. The over/under’s set at 7½.
Cubs News:
Báez wasn’t suspended for his shouting match with Amir Garrett, which is especially surprising considering the length of Garrett’s suspension (although Garrett’s a repeat offender, as many, I’m sure, have noted).
Kohl Stewart was the 27th man for the doubleheader, though he didn’t get into the game. Good reminder that he’s around.
Cubs Thoughts:
Whew. Let’s see. I’m curious if Thompson can hold down a rotation spot, and I’m guessing we’ll see him get at least one chance with Jake Arrieta sidelined. Would assume after Alzolay tonight we’ll see Zach Davies on Friday, Trevor Williams on Saturday, and Hendricks on Sunday, but then on Tuesday maybe Thompson gets another start? Or maybe they just go with Alzolay again on five days of rest. Three off-days in the next nine days, so maybe we won’t see Thompson get another chance for a minute. It’s probably good to be reminded not to get too excited about him, too, given how much working out of trouble he’s done in his not-quite-five innings of work so far. I think one can hold some caution while still enjoying last night for the joyous occasion it was.
I spend a lot of time in this space on the month-to-month objectives, which I refer to as “reasonable goals.” Entering the last game or the second-to-last game of April, I said Cubs fans should hope for the team to be at 28-25 exiting May. That path was reliant on splitting the four against the Dodgers and Padres. The Cubs have accomplished that mark already. The series loss to the Reds does hurt—if I remember my math correctly, that left the Cubs needing to go 8-4 against Cleveland, Washington, St. Louis, and Cincinnati—but basically, if you’re following that dichotomy precisely you can now get to the 28-25 mark with the following splits:
Against Detroit/Pittsburgh: 6-3
Against Cleveland/Washington/St. Louis/Cincinnati: 7-5
Against Los Angeles/San Diego: 1-1
That’s a 99-win pace over the rest of the month, which is probably slightly unreasonable, but you don’t get to play 39% of your games against the Pirates and Tigers every month.
Needless to say, finishing off the sweep tonight would mean a lot (and as an aside, as someone who believes the Mets are comparable to the Padres, it would be pretty fun to be 6-0 against the NL’s two or three best teams, even if it’s less fun to be 9-16 against the eleven or twelve worst NL opponents).
