Another season is coming to its end for the Cubs. Despite having the highest payroll in the National League by a fair margin, Chicago’s North-Side team is not going to be playing in October. It’s over.
This is the first time the Cubs have missed the playoffs since 2014, which is a rather striking sentence to type. The fact it’s so disappointing also demonstrates how much things have changed under Ricketts & Epstein & Hoyer & Co. No longer is losing the expectation, within the organization or in the public eye, and while their claim to the title of big brother in the NL Central is now suspect, the fact they’ve had the target on their backs for four straight years should not go unmentioned. It’s a radical shift in the franchise’s history, and people are to thank for that.
Of course, many of those same people are receiving the blame. In some cases, rightly. In some, wrongly. In almost all, dramatically, because that’s how sports media operates, but also because objectively, it was a dramatic season. There was the quiet offseason capped with a bang, as trade speculation around Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, and Ian Happ made it appear the Cubs might swoop in and come away from the Hot Stove with Bryce Harper in hand. There was PECOTA’s 79-win projection. There was the Happ demotion, the atrocious first week of the season, the dramatic April turnaround, the Zobrist absence, the Craig Kimbrel signing, the Albert Almora line drive in Houston, the Yu Darvish/Anthony Rizzo game in Los Angeles, the Willson Contreras/Tyler Flowers dust-up, the Adbert Alzolay debut, the attempted attack by Joe Maddon on Clint Hurdle, the Robel Garcia explosion, the injuries to Cole Hamels/Contreras/Javy Báez/Rizzo/Kris Bryant/the bullpen at large, the absurd road woes, the trade deadline deals for Nicholas Castellanos and Tony Kemp and pitching help, the collapse against Harper in Philadelphia, the Castellanos heroics, the Almora and Russell demotions, the Kyle Schwarber surge, the Darvish rebirth, the Zobrist return, the arrival of Nico Hoerner, the warrior-like performance of Rizzo through pain, the Kimbrel stumbles, and finally, repeated losses by one run to the Cardinals while both they and the Brewers ran away with playoff spots. There were probably other dramatic moments I’m missing in there, and any six-month season of an everyday sport will include tumult, but it’s fair to suppose the 2019 Cubs had a more tumultuous year than most. And after an exhausting end to 2018, it’s resonating particularly strongly.
But while it’s fair to view the 2019 Cubs storyline with some degree of melodrama, the narrative that the Cubs’ window is closed or that this is a failed dynasty crosses the line into foolishness. Yes, changes will be made. But no, a teardown is not in order. Let’s look, step by step, at what happens from here:
The Front Office
It’s fairly safe to assume that the core of the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer brain trust will stay put. Jason McLeod’s name has come up in speculation for general manager jobs, but given that the Cubs went to the trouble of recently promoting him, the odds lean towards him staying put for at least another year. The Cubs will probably make personnel changes to some extent in the front office. These probably won’t get the attention they deserve, because things like player development and scouting and analytics are on the lower end of the visibility-to-importance ratio. But we, or at least I, don’t know the Cubs’ front office or baseball as an industry well enough to speculate on much beyond the big names in the room, and those appear to be locked into place. It should be said, though, that the Cubs have been good at developing minor leaguers, but those prospects have struggled to improve once they’ve been in the big leagues. For what it’s worth.
The Major League Coaching Staff
Minor league coaching changes, similarly to the aforementioned impending front office moves, will likely happen and are likely more important than the attention paid them suggests. But the focus is on the major league-level, and justifiably so. Let’s start with the headline.
The Manager
Joe Maddon’s contract expires at the end of this season. It was a much-hyped story when the Cubs declined to extend him prior to 2019. Given that the team underperformed its run differential by one of the widest margins in baseball and given that they exhibited such a strange home/road split, intangibles like chemistry and mentality are in the spotlight. And that’s without mentioning the complaints about bullpen usage, lineups, etc. that are inherently present in just about any fanbase with just about any manager.
Overall, research has shown the manager doesn’t change much when it comes to a team’s performance. They’re likely not worth more than a few wins in either direction. But intangibles exist, and just because they’re difficult to quantify doesn’t mean they aren’t important. Joe Maddon has earned his reputation as one of the best managers of the 21st century, and he deserves credit for how comfortably the 2015/16 Cubs’ young core assimilated to major league baseball. If he leaves, teams will justifiably be lining up to pay him a ton of money. With that being said, the front office and ownership might decide it’s time for the Cubs and Maddon to part ways. If they do, Bench Coach Mark Loretta and Special Assistant to Baseball Operations David Ross have been the most-discussed names so far, but that’s all speculation. What we do know about Epstein indicates that at the very least, the Cubs will want someone analytically minded, a more and more common trait among managers, and probably not particularly “old-school” in approach, though the Chili Davis hire before 2018 casts doubt on that assumption.
As was said, though, managers aren’t as important as the attention paid them suggests, so naming the 2020 manager isn’t going to be the most impactful offseason decision the Cubs make. Debate who it should be as much as you want, but in the end, the bigger takeaway from the decision will be its status as a referendum on Epstein’s feelings about the state of the team. An out-of-house hire will indicate a desire to shake up the clubhouse approach. An in-house promotion points towards a desire for a cosmetic, media-appeasing change (give those guys a shiny toy while working on other issues) that doesn’t affect much structurally. Retaining Maddon signals confidence in the current state of the clubhouse, which would by extension pin the blame for the season on the roster construction and luck.
The Rest of the Staff
One of the signs pointing against bringing in someone from out-of-house is that the Cubs likely do not want to make another change at hitting and pitching coach after subjecting their roster to new ones in both 2018 and 2019. It’s possible they’d make an outside-the-organization hire and still retain Anthony Iapoce and Tommy Hottovy, and it’s possible they’ll make a change at hitting and pitching coach, or throughout the staff. But it’s possible some offensive players’ developmental struggles have at least a little bit to do with cycling through hitting coaches like toothbrushes, and it’s more possible that’s the perception within the organization, which could lead a push for stability. Don’t be surprised if moves are made, at the top line or the lower ranks, but the odds likely favor constancy below the managerial level.
The Roster
Overall, with the front office unlikely to change much and the coaching staff possibly turning, but not creating a major impact, the bigger questions have to do with the product on the field. And there are ample questions there to be asked. We’ll go by position group.
Catchers and First Basemen
Jonathan Lucroy was on a rental deal, so the core of Contreras, Rizzo, and Victor Caratini will bookend the first base line again in 2020. Unless, of course, Caratini gets traded. His value figures to be pretty high, given that he just posted comparable offensive numbers to Javy Báez, and given that he’s only owed the league minimum next season, as he won’t hit arbitration until after 2020. But at the same time, that’s a lot of value the Cubs could use, especially with catcher an area where depth is always necessary and the lack of ideal replacements should Contreras and/or Rizzo again miss time next season.
Middle Infield
Ben Zobrist is going to be a free agent. It’s possible he’ll retire. Maybe even likely. If he does, or if another team ends up being the one to offer him a cheap deal as a role player, he deserves all the love for the career he’s had, in Chicago and elsewhere, and what he’s meant to the Cubs will be appropriately appreciated. That leaves Báez, Russell, Hoerner, David Bote, Daniel Descalso, Kemp, Happ, and Garcia as middle infield options. That’s eight names, which drops to six when we group Happ and Kemp with the outfielders, and then drops to five when we assume Garcia will be in Des Moines. Barring injury, Javy Báez is the Cubs’ starting shortstop in 2020. Beyond that, it’s a big question mark.
Russell made somewhere between $3.2 and $3.4 million last year and contributed about half a win by WAR. That isn’t a bad salary for that WAR, but his offense isn’t what the Cubs want it to be, and his off-the-field mistakes in the past remain despicable. It isn’t inconceivable that the Cubs will let him go, but unlike other players, there are moral and societal implications with any move involving Russell that stretch as far as “What’s the Cubs’ responsibility when it comes to rehabilitating a bad person?” That isn’t an easy question to answer.
Hoerner has impressed in his debut, but at 22, he could certainly stand more developmental time. Still, he’s an option, he’ll be in the major league camp at spring training, and he’ll be seen again at some point in 2020, even if not on Opening Day.
Bote had a solid year, posting numbers similarly to Caratini’s. He’s locked in with that extension, and figures to be very present on the Cubs’ bench or in platoon situations, though it’s worth noting he does still have minor league options. His ability to play both corner and middle infield helps his status as a bench guy.
Descalso was terrible at the plate, but it’s possible his ankle injury had something to do with that, and the Cubs are committed to him for one more year regardless. He had a solid 2018 in Arizona, so there’s still the possibility he’ll bounce back, but it’s also possible the Cubs will cut their losses with him.
Overall, Báez will be on the roster, and Bote will probably be on the roster. Hoerner or Russell or possibly Happ will probably be the Opening Day second baseman, unless this becomes an area where the Cubs really get active, whether through making a trade or going after someone in free agency. Howie Kendrick would be a luxury option, and might be perceived as a positive veteran personality to add to the clubhouse. Brock Holt would slot well into platoons and would similarly offer an experienced, positive influence. There are other middle infield free agents, but those are two possible options that could accomplish chemistry goals while strengthening lineups.
Third Base
It’s Bryant. He’s unlikely to be extended this winter, though it would be a convenient time for the Cubs, as he’s dealt with some injuries and might have slightly lower value than he might when he hits free agency after 2021. There’s been some trade speculation regarding him, but while nothing’s out of the question, trading him doesn’t make very much sense. What would you get back that’s more valuable than two years of Bryant in the center of your championship window?
Outfield
Heyward, Schwarber, Almora, Happ, and Kemp are the names right now, with Castellanos gone to free agency. It’s possible the Cubs would try to re-sign Castellanos, having loved the guy and seeming to perceive a need for his kind of personality, and there might be space for him: An outfield of Schwarber, Heyward, and Castellanos from left to right stacks up pretty well, especially with Happ as the fourth guy. But he’ll command a not-small salary, and based on my very rough math, the Cubs will enter the offseason only $30 million or so away from hitting their 2019 payroll. Will they go higher? Maybe. Will they go lower? Maybe. The best guess is that if they do sign Castellanos, he’ll be the biggest offseason signing for Epstein & Hoyer this year. More on this in the next section.
If the Cubs do bring back Castellanos, someone will probably go. Maybe Happ, who’s been the odd man out of late, and was fine but not spectacular in his 140 plate appearances this season. Probably not Schwarber, but the narrative that he’s a DH persists, and lots of teams would love to have him. Probably not Heyward, due to his contract. Almora’s value is relatively low, but his glove has a great reputation, which could bolster what he could bring back in a trade.
Overall, if we assume Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras, Báez, Heyward, Schwarber, Bote, and Caratini will be on the roster, we’re left with four or five spots to go to Russell, Hoerner, Happ, Almora, Kemp, Descalso, and any free agent position players (including Castellanos). Kemp and Descalso are fairly similar offensively, with Kemp both cheaper and a better defensive asset. Russell and Almora are similar in that they have weak bats and strong gloves, and different in that Russell has off-the-field issues and Almora seems well-liked in the clubhouse. Hoerner might be half a season away from regular contributions. Happ could be the starting center fielder but could also be out of town. There are a lot of questions to be answered. There’s little clarity right now. And what the Cubs do in free agency is tied to their pitching staff.
Relief Pitching
It’s safe to say the Cubs will not be picking up Brandon Morrow’s option. They might pick up David Phelps’, but they’re probably left with Kimbrel, Kyle Ryan, Rowan Wick, Brad Wieck, Dillon Maples, Duane Underwood, James Norwood, and Danny Hultzen as their bullpen options, with Tyler Chatwood, Alec Mills, Allen Webster, Alzolay, and Kendall Graveman as possible swingmen. This was effectively the bullpen with which the Cubs ended 2019, and through the haze of Kimbrel’s struggles, it’s hard to remember that a lot of them pitched well. The Cubs could do little this offseason with their bullpen, declare Ryan and Wick the setup men, and be ok. They could also make free agency moves.
It’s likely they’ll pick up at least one free agent reliever. Pretty much everyone seems to do it, and there are plenty of options available. They could try to bring back Steve Cishek, or Pedro Strop, or Brandon Kintzler. They could go after any one of a dozen solid relievers on the market, or hunt for value in a reclamation project. Regardless, it’s more likely than not that some of their offseason spending will go towards the bullpen.
The topic of offseason spending is a strange one. The Cubs, and specifically the Ricketts family, seem to have deep pockets. But the storyline of those pockets being locked was a big one last offseason, even as the club amassed one of the three highest payrolls in baseball. It’s understandable for fans to look at owners with money and want them to spend more of it, but at the same time, it’s understandable for owners to look at the front office and say, “We’ll pay a top-three payroll, but it’s on you to make it produce.” This year, it didn’t produce. So while the Cubs can probably logistically afford Castellanos, and Gerrit Cole (we’ll get to him), and Anthony Rendon for the hell of it, those are (in escalating degrees) not necessarily likely moves.
Starting Pitching
Jon Lester, Darvish, and Kyle Hendricks are signed for next year (and the following one, and in the case of the latter two 2022 and 2023 as well). José Quintana has a $10.5 million club option that should be picked up (in my back of the envelope calculations earlier, I assumed it would be). Hamels is poised to become a free agent.
The Cubs need at least one more starting pitcher, and there are five candidates from within. Chatwood bounced back this year and handled the swingman role particularly well. Mills made three starts and allowed a combined five runs in them. Webster’s been hurt a lot but exists. Alzolay wasn’t great at the MLB level, but was one of the team’s brighter prospects at the time of his debut, signaling he may just need to hit the reset button. Graveman might be the most interesting of the five, being a serviceable starter in Oakland for the better part of three years (think of him like one of those Brewers pitchers who all blend together in terms of quality) before undergoing Tommy John surgery towards the end of 2018. It’s hard to imagine Webster being given the fifth spot. It’s plausible to envision it going to Chatwood or Graveman, with the other serving as a swingman. It’s possible the Cubs won’t even pick up Graveman’s option. It’s possible Mills will become the guy at some point.
But it’s also possible the Cubs will turn to free agency, and there are some good pitchers available. Cole, of course, who we’ve mentioned. Jake Odorizzi. Zack Wheeler. Hyun-Jin Ryu. Tanner Roark. Madison Bumgarner. The list goes on. There will be, of course, bargain options, but the Cubs have spent big on free agent starters before, and it’s plausible they’ll do it again. Getting an ace would be great, but the price tag on Cole will be enormous. The Cubs’ rotation is interesting in that it’s feasible for any one of the four likely returning pitchers to become “the guy,” but it’s basically full of Game Two-level starters. Getting a Game Three or Game Four-level starter might make the most sense, but it’s possible they’ll aim high, and it’s possible they’ll stick with their four and try to make it work with what they have from there.
In Conclusion
We’ll see what happens. The Maddon decision will likely come soon. Expect at least some minor activity on the bullpen. Expect tough decisions to be made regarding Almora, Russell, and Descalso. Keep an eye out for Happ or Kemp to leave town. Listen for Hoerner news. Be ready for pretty much anything aside from saying goodbye to Contreras, Hendricks, Darvish, Báez, or Rizzo. With the starting pitching, look out for word on the Quintana option (probably picked up) and the Hamels option (probably not picked up), and if Cole’s not in the cards, cross your fingers that another slow market opens up a Wheeler or an Odorizzi (or a Kendrick or a Holt) as a bargain. Castellanos might return. Little is out of the question. That’s how it goes when you miss the playoffs by a wide range with a top-three payroll.
