I just…I don’t know, guys.
Kyle Hendricks had another rough one last night. Three walks. Just one strikeout. Chased in the fourth inning.
Now, to be fair, the ball wasn’t being hit all that hard against him. But the walks are concerning. The walks are really concerning.
The positive case for Hendricks is that in 2017, he actually had a worse walk rate than this one. His home run rate wasn’t this bad, his strikeout rate was better, but he was walking batters in 2017, and then he stopped doing it as much for the next three years. Part of what makes this year extreme is that last year was a career year for him in that department. And with a track record like his, there’s always going to be hope for Hendricks to bounce back.
The negative case is that projection systems have always been low on Hendricks, and while we like to write those off because he’s such an unusual pitcher, they actually overestimated him this year. Clearly, something is going on, and it’s hard to know whether we’ve entered a new age of Hendricks or if he’s just having one odd, bad year.
Hendricks is arguably the most important piece of the Cubs’ hopes of contending in 2023 and of perhaps being contention-curious in 2022. He is the only proven starting pitcher in the franchise. Alec Mills has been solid, there’s been promise elsewhere, but it’s really just Hendricks. And right now, he’s pitching like a fourth starter that might provoke you to send your ace out there on three days’ rest in October.
The Cubs don’t need Hendricks to be a Cy Young winner to be an October-run sort of team. But it would help if he was below 4.00 in the ERA and FIP departments. It would help if he was his old, reliable self. Especially given the absence of stellar options around him.
Look for the Cubs to be active in the pitching market this offseason.
Other notes from last night:
- Michael Rucker had a good outing. He’s one of those guys with a weird ERA/FIP split (7.94/4.09 over 22.2 IP), but his FIP isn’t spectacular itself. I wonder if he’d clear waivers this offseason.
- Matt Duffy homered again, early in the game, when things were happy.
- Willson Contreras homered on a ball he absolutely smoked. Great to see out of him. Not a very good Contreras year.
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The Diaspora:
Andrew Chafin had a nice inning of work in Kansas City and now has a 1.86 ERA, eighth among qualified relievers (his 2.95 FIP is 26th, there are 152 qualified relievers). Kris Bryant doubled for the Giants. Anthony Rizzo doubled for the Yankees.
Around the Division:
The Reds beat the Pirates, narrowing their gap with St. Louis to one game with San Diego sandwiched in the middle (all three teams have 76 wins). The Cardinals (35.4% playoff-likely, per FanGraphs) host the Padres (32.5%) this weekend. The Reds (24.4%) host the Dodgers (100.0%).
Jesse Winker’s off the IL for the Reds, but Tyler Naquin’s going onto it.
Up Next:
Three in Milwaukee.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Milwaukee
When:
7:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Milwaukee
Weather:
There’s a chance the roof will be closed, with a shot at a storm in the early evening. If it isn’t, temperatures should be in the 70’s with wind blowing out at ten to fifteen miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Zach Davies vs. Adrian Houser
The Opponent:
The Brewers are a bit banged up. Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, and Tyrone Taylor are all on the IL, as is Brett Anderson. Taylor’s evidently rather close to returning, with Adames unlikely to be back this weekend and Tellez questionable to be back by the end of the regular season.
As for Houser: 4.31 FIP, 4.14 xERA, solid year from the swingman, who’s almost exclusively hung onto a rotation spot. His 3.25 ERA’s a little misleading, but he’s a good arm these days.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are a +205 underdog, with Milwaukee at -230 for an implied Chicago win probability of about 30%. The over/under’s at nine.
Cubs News:
Nothing significant that I’ve heard.
Cubs Thoughts:
It’d be nice to keep the Brewers from clinching this weekend. I believe they’d need to sweep the Cubs and get two Cardinals losses, so it’s not extraordinarily likely, but it’s certainly possible. The Cubs are 3-13 against their rivals to the north on the year, and only 1-5 at Miller Park, so from a pride standpoint, this would be a nice one to win.
