Adbert Alzolay will likely start one half of tomorrow’s doubleheader. It will be his second start of the season and third appearance, following a key five-inning outing against the Cardinals two weeks ago and a scoreless inning of relief last weekend. He’s yet to allow an earned run this year, but more promisingly, his FIP is only 1.47.
Last year, Alzolay excited in his first two outings, holding the Mets and Braves to one run apiece over a combined nearly-nine innings. In a rotation in need of bolstering, there was hope he would bolster.
He did not bolster.
In his third outing, the Pirates tagged him for seven runs. He didn’t make it out of the third inning, and he wasn’t seen again until September.
There’s a difference, though, between Alzolay’s appearances so far this year and those first two last year. Even in last year’s successful starts, he walked multiple batters, keeping the score at bay not by turning through the Mets’ and Braves’ lineups, but by working out of jams.
It would be simplistic to say walks are the decisive piece determining Alzolay’s success, and we’re dealing with small sample sizes here. Still, it’s better to walk fewer batters than more, especially if the right-hander can keep opponents’ average exit velocity low, as he’s done so far on the aggregate in his limited MLB appearances. Regardless of Alzolay’s command, the Cubs are entering a five-game tilt with the Cardinals ahead by just three and a half games. Another series win could go a long way towards wrapping up the division, especially with the Brewers spending their weekend in Cleveland. However he does it, a successful start from Alzolay would be a welcome occurrence.
The Cubs don’t need Alzolay to save the back end of the rotation. That could become necessary (and it’s not outlandish to hope on, given the man’s one of the Cubs’ better prospects), but the Cubs don’t need that yet. They just need one good start from him tomorrow. Preferably without a lot of walks.
