Count the thoughts with me, for I have yet to count them:
1. Every win’s a big win right now.
They’re all high-leverage. They all matter. The Cubs need to win as many as they can. And so, getting that one last night is big.
2. Nico Hoerner’s injury hurts because the Cubs lose Nico Hoerner.
Nico Hoerner has been playing incredible defense and has been smacking the ball pretty darn well over the course of his time in the lineup. Losing that for a while, which seems likely after Hoerner went down with a hamstring injury last night, hurts.
3. Nico Hoerner’s injury hurts because the Cubs might lose someone in addition to Nico Hoerner.
The Cubs will have to clear a 40-man roster spot to open up space for a replacement for Hoerner. The report is that Rafael Ortega’s on his way to Chicago (or Pittsburgh, as it were) but Ortega might not be added to the roster right away. The Cubs might play with effectively 25 on the active roster instead of 26 tonight while awaiting Hoerner’s MRI results, then go from there.
The only way to make space for Ortega (or anyone on the 40-man) is to move someone to the 60-day IL or to DFA or trade them. A DFA could be painful because the Cubs have either a short-term flyer, short-term reliance, or long-term hopes on every single one of the current 40. There are Miguel Amaya, Christopher Morel, and Brailyn Márquez, none of whom are likely to be called up because none are ready and Márquez isn’t a position player anyway. There are Kohl Stewart and Shelby Miller, part of the starting pitching lottery portfolio the Cubs have lined up in case something falls apart in the current rotation. There are Tyson Miller and Cory Abbott, the next line of homegrown pitching waiting in the wings (and also potentially part of that lottery portfolio). There’s Trevor Megill, who looked great in two innings of work before being sidelined at the end of April. There’s Manuel Rodríguez, a reliever in whom the Cubs have some hope. Then there are the 31 players either on the active roster or the IL who haven’t been mentioned yet.
It’s possible someone could move to the 60-day IL—perhaps Hoerner himself if the injury’s serious. It’s possible the Cubs could just call up another pitcher and play with a short bench until Jason Heyward or Jake Marisnick or Matt Duffy comes back (Duffy hit the IL yesterday before the game, with Jason Adam DFA’d to make space and Patrick Wisdom added to the 40-man in Duffy’s place), but we don’t know the prognosis on any of those three. If this were a video game, you’d make a trade—you’d trade a solid reliever for a solid platoon player. But that’s hard to do when you’re facing a roster crunch in real life, because your back’s against the wall.
We’ll see what happens here. Expect more news of some sort before gametime, but don’t be surprised if it drags on.
4. P.J. Higgins got through it.
I didn’t see any comment on the cross-up in the first, but Higgins and Arrieta together worked a fine game, giving the Cubs a chance to win. Hopefully Willson Contreras, whose wrist sounds to be fine, does end up back in the lineup today as expected and Higgins can go back to the bench for a minute. The concern on Higgins was his catching, with the decision between him and Tony Wolters seeming to come down to whether the Cubs preferred risking some mishaps behind the dish or accepting offensive impotence from their backstop.
5. Joc Pederson!
Ok, we can talk about good things again. Pederson won the Cubs a game. His Win Probability Added on FanGraphs was .270, or 27% of a win, or half of Contreras’s season-to-date WPA (which is not a bad WPA, and is better than that of Anthony Rizzo and Javy Báez, who’s had multiple late-inning heroic home runs).
The stache is hilarious. The bat is rocking. He’s having fun, and so are we. Thank goodness, right now, for Joc Pederson.
6. Craig Kimbrel worked out of it.
Kimbrel won’t be perfect, so every time he isn’t perfect, it’s great when that doesn’t result in a blown save. The bullpen, speaking of win probability, is third in the majors in WPA, and is also third in ERA, sixth in FIP, and fourth in fWAR.
That’s great, and a happy surprise.
***
Around the Division:
In the high school reunion on the South Side, Jack Flaherty surrendered seven runs (just three earned) and left the game in the fourth while Lucas Giolito finished sixth and got the win. Up in Milwaukee, the Padres bounced back to beat Corbin Burnes and the Brewers. In Washington, Tyler Mahle (and a whole lot of Tejay Antone) held off the Nationals bats enough to make the Reds’ two runs off of Max Scherzer stand up.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 26-22, 25.5%
2. Cubs: 25-22, 24.8%
3. Milwaukee: 24-24, 39.5%
4. Cincinnati: 21-25, 10.1%
5. Pittsburgh: 18-29, 0.1%
John Gant opposes Carlos Rodón this afternoon as the Cardinals try to hold onto their division lead. Eric Lauer goes for the Brewers opposite Chris Paddack of the Padres tonight. Jeff Hoffman opposes Joe Ross in Washington for the Reds this evening.
Up Next:
Game 2
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Pittsburgh
Where:
PNC Park
When:
5:35 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Showers are in the forecast after thunderstorms this afternoon, so hopefully those move out rather quickly (I wonder, as I write this, whether this is impacting the Cubs’ 40-man roster move timing). The wind this evening is expected to be blowing out to left at roughly ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Trevor Williams vs. Wil Crowe
The Opponent:
Fortunately for the Cubs, Wil Crowe is not as good as his last name would imply. That said, he held the Cubs to two runs over six innings on Mother’s Day weekend, and his 4.91 ERA/5.25 xERA/5.05 FIP isn’t all that bad. He gives the Pirates a chance most nights. Right-handed, if you are Joc Pederson and you are reading this.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -135 favorites, with the Pirates at +115. That comes out to about a 55% chance to win when you take out the vig. The over/under’s at 8½ and favors the over.
Cubs News:
In addition to everything covered in thought number three, and the Contreras note in thought number four, the Cubs signed Dee Strange-Gordon this morning (yes, used to go by Dee Gordon, you’re thinking of the right guy). He’s on a minor-league deal, so he’s not on the 40-man or the big league roster, but he might be the eventual callup when the Hoerner situation’s sorted out.
Cubs Thoughts:
You’re banged up, but you’re winning, and while I knock furiously on wood in between typed phrases here, the core is relatively healthy, which is more than, say, the Mets have going for themselves. Of course, Kris Bryant did take that pitch off the hand in Cleveland and Javy Báez did deal with all that back/hamstring stuff and Anthony Rizzo did have to leave a game and miss a game with back tightness and Willson Contreras’s wrist might be all kinds of swollen from that Kimbrel fastball and Ian Happ’s ribs might still be a little tender but hey, Kyle Hendricks and Adbert Alzolay have nothing reportedly ailing them. Nothing reported.
Seriously, it’s huge that the Cubs are in the place they’re in after a rocky April. They could take the NL Central lead today, and no one else from the division has stepped up and shown themselves to be anything more than mediocre. They’re right in this, even with all the hurt.
I’d like to know more about the Adam DFA—why he wasn’t placed on the 60-day IL. Hopefully this isn’t a cheap move, or an unusual one. It does seem odd, though. I’m also curious if Trevor Williams is in the DFA discussion—would the Cubs take their chances on Stewart (or Miller, or other Miller, or Abbott) for the sake of saving themselves from DFA-ing a reliever? I’d have a hard time believing that, but maybe they would, and maybe he’s part of the conversation, or maybe the Cubs want to see one more start from him just to be sure they’re right about keeping him right now.
