I don’t know what to say about last night’s game besides that it was a novel twist on the pattern from the last few days, and a deft allusion to last Monday night, when the Cubs were still in playoff contention.
That, though, brings me to something I do have things to say about, so if you were worried you weren’t gonna get much of a word count out of this pageview you invested in The Barking Crow, your worries have been relieved.
The transition from playoff hopes to complete woefulness happened fast. After the no-hitter in Los Angeles (which was just a dozen days ago tonight), the Cubs were division underdogs, but not massively so, and their opportunities lay before them. They had to get through three more in L.A., but they’d already avoided the sweep, and a chance against the Brewers loomed.
After they lost the last three in L.A., things looked a little bit troubling. Not because of the losses, though. Those were to be expected playing a road series against the best roster in baseball. Things looked troubling because the Brewers had taken advantage of a momentary scheduling difference to amass a significant lead, leaving the Cubs hoping to just stop the bleeding and maybe get a good run going into the All-Star Break to be in the mix. Adding to that the development that the Cubs would be facing what, at the time, looked like the worst possible slate of Brewers pitching in Milwaukee (Corbin Burnes would later have his start bumped back, but we didn’t know that entering the week), the odds had suddenly piled up, especially with the knowledge that the Cubs had little margin for error with the trade deadline looming and a lot of contracts expiring at the end of this season.
So, entering Milwaukee, the Cubs looked like they could really use a series win, and like they might be able to survive a series loss, but that they really needed to find a way to win one. As I believe we wrote at the time, the Cubs had managed June well. They’d handled a terribly difficult stretch one game short of as well as they could have been asked to handle it (they should have taken the Marlins series—that was the only complaint). But the Brewers had overperformed, and the Giants’ overperformance made an already debatably desirable wild card appearance near-impossible, and here the Cubs were, suddenly somewhat desperate when their performance hadn’t been what made desperation necessary.
Monday night’s loss to the Brewers was brutal. The Cubs looked like they were going to take it, then didn’t take it, then melted down. Concern mounted, but Corbin Burnes had been bumped back from the Wednesday start, so it looked like the Cubs could at least split the next two and try to get their feet back under them, maybe closing the deficit by a few games while the schedules flipped in the opposite direction this first week of July.
Tuesday night’s loss to the Brewers was brutal. The Cubs were right there, and probably hit the ball better than their foes on the aggregate, but they couldn’t get the win. Damage-control mode was activated. A win on Wednesday was necessary.
Then, Wednesday happened. One of the worst losses in terms of blown win probability and method of blowing win probability imaginable. A numerical and emotional whipsaw that left Patrick Wisdom on the ground holding his face and a creeping knowledge that the Cubs needed something wild to get back into this thing, with the added torment of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo battling nagging pains.
Six days. Three days, really. Three days to fall apart, when just one win would have kept things mildly together.
And then the disintegration began in earnest.
Had the Cubs bounced back and won the series in Cincinnati (something that very nearly happened, as the Cubs had great chances in all three games), they wouldn’t be in the race but they wouldn’t be reeling like this. We’d still be saying, “They need a great week, but they can go 5-2 and the Brewers can go 3-4 and we can get to the break outside of the surrender zone.” They didn’t win the series, though. They got swept. And last night, another late meltdown occurred, and now it really seems like it’s over.
Eleven days. In eleven days they went from right-there-with-the-Brewers to when’s-the-first-trade-coming.
There’s a reminder here that while in baseball, it’s easy to take each game too seriously, there are high-leverage games, and there’ve been an abundance for the Cubs this year with the team so close to a potentially massive selloff, and all ten of these ten games were high-leverage, or at least the first six were, and those three against the Brewers were high-leverage enough to be worth about a thirty or forty-percentage point swing in division championship probability from best-case to worst-case scenario.
It happened fast.
It happened so very fast.
***
Around the Division:
The Brewers did lose to the Mets, which makes sense because on paper, the Mets are better than the Brewers. The Cardinals beat the Giants, and are now just half a game back of the Cubs for third place. The Reds beat the Royals, and if they go on a hot streak and become buyers I don’t know whether I’d be happy, because I like the Reds more than the Brewers this particular season, or sad, because it would be a reminder that going on such a run was possible. Lot has to happen for me to find out, I guess.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 51-35, 83.3%
2. Cincinnati: 44-40, 11.9%
3. Cubs: 42-43, 3.4%
4. St. Louis: 42-44, 1.4%
5. Pittsburgh: 31-53, 0.0%
Brett Anderson vs. Jacob deGrom tonight in Queens, Luis Castillo vs. Kris Bubic in Kansas City, Adam Wainwright vs. Johnny Cueto in San Francisco, the Reds could be five games back after tonight and as a reminder they play four games against the Brewers this weekend and it’s Corbin Burnes and Sonny Gray who aren’t expected to be starting, which I think is better for the Reds than the Brewers.
Up Next:
Game 2 with the Phillies, as we are reminded that the Cubs are still playing games.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Philadelphia
When:
7:05 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Temperatures in the 80’s, wind blowing out at about ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Jake Arrieta vs. Aaron Nola
The Opponent:
Nola’s been racking up WAR this season, on pace for nearly 200 innings with a 3.47 FIP and a 3.72 xERA. His ERA’s a mediocre 4.44, but his .331 BABIP shouldn’t stand, so trust the FIP, don’t trust the ERA, especially since his spin rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate all look good. He did give up two home runs to the Marlins his last time out, but he’s pitching on five days of rest, and he also struck out eleven batters in that game and didn’t walk anybody so I wouldn’t think too much of the homers.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are only +125 underdogs. The Phillies are at -135. That implies about a 42% chance of a win. The over/under’s at 8½.
Cubs News:
Yesterday, Taylor Gushue was designated for assignment as the Cubs picked up Robinson Chirinos, one of their better backup catching options to date in terms of, “This guy can probably competently do his job.” That isn’t a knock on all the other guys they’ve tried. Chirinos is just probably better than them, and some have been in over their heads. But at the same time, Chirinos was released by the Yankees for a reason, and was in their minor league system before his release for a reason. Meaning: Don’t expect Chirinos to be a Victor Caratini-level backup, or even much better than a Tony Wolters/P.J. Higgins/Jose Lobaton/Taylor Gushue. The best option is still probably a healthy Austin Romine, who’s about replacement-level and is only 32 so isn’t breaking down physically the way Chirinos might be, but it’s unclear if we’ll ever get that.
Cubs Thoughts:
It’s not impossible for the Cubs to win every game the rest of this week and for the Brewers to lose every game the rest of this week. That said, it’s also only something like 0.025% likely, or 1-in-4,000 likely. It would put the Cubs two and a half games back entering the break, with the Reds theoretically tied with the Brewers in this scenario.
Are there in-between scenarios in which the Cubs survive this recent disaster? Yes. But they’re also too unlikely to justify spending time parsing them, and this section is more to say that if you want to feel hope, you can, but if you want to just get on with it and start grieving, that’s probably the more reasonable stance. Either way, hopefully they win tonight. Hopefully Arrieta bounces back. Hopefully the Cubs can pop a few homers off Nola. Hopefully Chirinos catches a good game (I’m assuming Willson Contreras will get a night off). Hopefully the Brewers lose to Jacob deGrom. Hopefully the losing streak is broken, and this is no longer actively nightmarish.
We’ll see.
