There are a lot of possible ledes here, but this isn’t a newspaper article, and we don’t really use ledes traditionally, so let’s just list them all out right here:
- I really wish the Cubs had traded Zach Davies.
- So Bleacher Nation listed Aaron Ashby as the Brewers’ starter tomorrow, and I got really excited for a second before realizing 1) he’s not been announced by the Brewers yet and 2) that was the Jake Arrieta game. And now I’m thinking about how the Jake Arrieta game should be the one in Pittsburgh from 2015 and it will be again one day but we’re just not there yet.
- I was off Twitter most of yesterday, so I just now saw that Anthony Rizzo has covid. Scary news, especially given his immunocompromised state. Hopefully it’s a mild case.
- On Friday, the Cubs won the Kimbrel trade, and we thought we had a balm to get us through the weekend. Then Eloy Jiménez and Dylan Cease did what they did last night, and the Cubs lost the Quintana trade all over again.
Alright, think that covers it. Nothing else to say about last night.
***
The Diaspora:
In addition to Rizzo going down, Javy Báez left yesterday’s game with a hip injury and Kyle Schwarber’s had a groin issue come up and set him back in his return from the IL, leaving him out another few weeks. Jon Lester got through three scoreless but ended up allowing five runs over the next two and a third as the Cardinals lost to the Royals. Brad Brach (let’s count him, why not?) is going on the IL for the Reds.
Around the Division:
The Reds gained another game on the Brewers, closing the gap to five games and the probability gap to 7-in-8 vs. 1-in-8 (or thereabouts). Cubs could help those guys from Cincinnati this week. Or those guys from Milwaukee, I guess. Feels more likely it’ll be the latter.
Up Next:
Four against the Brewers. Dammit. Alzolay and Arrieta are the two who won’t start.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Milwaukee
When:
7:05 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Big storms are expected to move through and be gone by nine or ten, making it uncertain whether the game will be played tonight or not. Would guess it depends how wet the field gets. This is the last trip to Wrigley for the Crew this year. I say the Cubs make this as hard on the Brewers as possible and just really obstruct information. Try to make Freddy Peralta warm up eight times.
Once the rain’s through the wind’s supposed to be blowing out, I believe. Not terribly hard, but out.
Starting Pitchers:
Alec Mills vs. Freddy Peralta
The Opponent:
You know Peralta, the guy we said was really hard to hit but walked enough guys that we should be fine and then just started dominating despite the walk rate? 59th in baseball in fWAR, and no, that’s not just pitchers (18th among pitchers, but that includes his hitting—he’s 13th if you limit it to the mound).
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +155 underdogs, with their guests at -180. That’s about a 37% win probability. Over/under’s at nine and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
Justin Steele starts tomorrow, so the six-man rotation is here, and it goes Hendricks/Alzolay/Davies/Mills/Steele/Arrieta, which would be a funny thing to tattoo on yourself, just saying. Maybe with the ERA and W-L number next to it, too? Vertical list?
Cubs Thoughts:
Try to split the series? You’re probably losing Wednesday, since that’s Corbin Burnes’s turn in the rotation and Arrieta’s turn in the Cubs rotation. But maybe you can sneak out a win from Mills or Steele, and maybe Hendricks can beat Woodruff.
