We’re big into ideas these days.
The thoughts:
1. How about these Cubs?
There’s a big reason for exasperation after yesterday, and we’ll get to that, and yes, it’s only Memorial Day Sunday and the Cubs aren’t even in first place. But at the same time, the overall experience of watching this team is one led by the thought that they can and will figure out a way to compete, more often than not.
Yesterday was particularly fun because of the momentum side of it. Rex Brothers got wild. Keegan Thompson gave up an unfortunate double. But Thompson shut the door to keep it tied and the Cubs went and rallied, and suddenly the party was on. Those are the kind of things that make mid-season baseball games great.
2. David Bote’s going to be out for a while.
It’s a separated shoulder, and it stinks. Bote was crushing the ball, even if the results weren’t always there.
The roster implication here is that Bote might have to go on the 60-day IL, or the Cubs might put him on the 60-day IL if it’s going to be close since putting him on just the 10-day IL will either require playing shorthanded for a bit, calling up someone not major league-ready for a bit, or DFA-ing another pitcher they like while they still try to work out a trade to get some value for their Shelby Miller investment.
The production aspect here is that the Cubs’ offense just lost some pop, and from more of a line drive hitter than most of the franchise (we’re still waiting to see whether that helps with this new ball, or whether the new ball will stay, but the point here is that Bote’s unique and adds some variety to the Cubs lineup). I don’t know defensive stats well enough to give an objective assessment of Bote’s defense, but my perception is that he is a very good defensive third baseman and an adequate defensive second baseman, so not great there either.
3. Anthony Rizzo sat again.
This is part of why it feels like the Cubs won’t just go shorthanded. They’re already effectively playing shorthanded, with Rizzo’s back keeping him sidelined even though he hasn’t gone on the IL. If the Cubs don’t call anyone up today and Rizzo still isn’t available, the bench is just going to be P.J. Higgins and either Rafael Ortega or Nick Martini, assuming Patrick Wisdom gets the start at third. That’s a thin bench.
4. The bullpen did come through.
You could say it didn’t, given Zach Davies didn’t get a win after his 65 pitches (Zach Davies idea incoming get ready everybody), but over four innings of work, it allowed just two walks and three hits while leaving possibly everybody available today.
5. Should Zach Davies start more often?
Zach Davies is on a short leash that tightens even further the third time through the order. He also is a high-contact pitcher. This results in some low, low pitch counts, like yesterday’s (again, 65).
One thought we can have about this is that Zach Davies is going to stay fresher deeper into the year in a season in which that’s a concern due to guys missing so much of last year.
Another thought is that the Cubs should start throwing Davies on three days’ rest now and then when it lines up well to save, say, Adbert Alzolay. You don’t have to make that the always plan. You can just make it the plan after days like yesterday. You only threw 65 pitches, Zach? Let’s schedule you for Wednesday and give Alzolay that extra day off (and presumably a very fun day after arriving early to San Francisco, where I assume Adbert Alzolay would take a ferry tour of the bay and say, “Wow!” a lot while posting Instagram stories of the Golden Gate Bridge).
6. Are the Cubs deep?
To take things back to the batter’s box: Wisdom and Ortega have a combined 25 plate appearances and a combined 162 wRC+. Martini and Higgins have not enjoyed the same success (if you take all four’s work, it comes out to a 47 wRC+ over 51 PA’s), but Wisdom and Ortega have come through these last few days, which has been significant in terms of accumulating wins even if it doesn’t mean they’re going to mash the rest of the way.
Having this serviceable depth materialize from Iowa is something that wasn’t guaranteed to happen, and something that reflects well on the front office’s ability to bring in major league-ready reserves to be there for situations just like these. The hope is that Wisdom and Ortega don’t have to spend too much more time in the lineup, but having them in the reserve mix does bolster the roster in the diversified-portfolio manner.
7. The Cubs did their job this series.
The Cubs have already won the series. But. They’ve got a fresh bullpen today, and they’ve got a buzzsaw of a month ahead. So. Winning today would build them some cushion. If you remember our end-of-June goal from a few days ago, it involved managing to go .500 against the Padres/Dodgers/Mets over these next four weeks. It was also a rather aggressive goal—to get to 45-36, which would be half of a 90-win season. Sweeping the Reds would mean only having to go 6-8 against that Padres/Dodgers/Mets tier, or only having to go 6-6 against the St. Louis/Milwaukee/San Francisco/Cleveland tier. Basically, win today and you just need to play .500 baseball against good teams in June, then win a series against the Marlins, and you’ll hit the halfway point on a 90-win pace, which I would imagine would put the Cubs squarely in the division hunt if not leading it.
Playing .500 baseball against those teams—especially the Padres/Dodgers/Mets—is a lot, but it’s not impossible. And to be fair, if the Cubs can’t do that, they can’t expect to win in October, which is becoming more and more a part of the goal.
***
Around the Division:
The Cardinals won again in Arizona, 7-4 this time, bringing their win streak up to four games after losing those two on the South Side earlier this week. The Brewers swept a doubleheader in Washington, winning 4-1 and 6-2. The Pirates swept a doubleheader over the Rockies, winning 7-0 and 4-0. What a division. Great division. Pay no attention to where this division lands.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 30-22, 31.3%
2. Cubs: 29-22, 27.9%
3. Milwaukee: 27-25, 36.7%
4. Cincinnati: 22-28, 4.1%
5. Pittsburgh: 20-31, 0.0%
Another good thing about finishing off the Reds is that the Cubs might finish off the Reds. Getting this to a three-team race helps change that buying/selling calculus.
Up Next:
Game 3
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Cincinnati
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Much more hospitable than the last two days, to hitters anyway. Temperatures around sixty, winds blowing in from right but only at 5-10 mph for a change.
Starting Pitchers:
Jake Arrieta vs. Tyler Mahle
The Opponent:
Mahle’s been one of the Reds’ two most productive pitchers on the year, trailing only Wade Miley in fWAR. He’s got a 3.43 xERA and a 3.90 FIP after posting a 3.37 and 3.88 in those metrics in something of a breakout 2020.
The Cubs did hit him pretty hard on that crazy Sunday game at the beginning of the month (the Happ/Hoerner collision game), blasting three home runs over his five innings of work. That was his second-worst start of the year, and the wind was blowing out in Cincinnati, and I don’t think it was anywhere near as predictive as his xERA and FIP but I hope it was.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -114 favorites, with the Reds at +104, so narrow, narrow favorites, but favorites against Tyler Mahle, which is kind of impressive, especially relative to preseason and early-season expectations. Over/under’s at 8½ and favors the over.
Cubs News:
The Bote thing’s the big thing, so we’ll be awaiting news on roster moves this morning. The Rizzo thing’s the other big thing, so we’ll be awaiting a lineup this morning as well. Don’t be surprised if Higgins gets a start and Contreras gets some rest. Don’t be surprised if Bryant or Báez gets some rest too, though now that I say that I do not know who the Cubs would put at second base if Eric Sogard were at shortstop. Sergio Alcántara or Dee Strange-Gordon is probably coming up very soon.
Cubs Thoughts:
Bank the wins while you can. It’s tough out there.
