Whom:
Cubs vs. Detroit
Where:
Detroit
When:
6:10 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Dry. Temperatures falling through the sixties as the game goes on. Wind blowing in from right-center(ish) at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Jake Arrieta vs. Tarik Skubal
The Opponent:
Tarik Skubal is not having a good time. His ERA’s 5.67, and that’s with a .236 BABIP and an 86.7% LOB rate, and no, he’s not getting soft contact. His xERA’s 7.35. His FIP is 7.88.He’s allowed ten home runs in 27 innings of work.
Skubal is not alone in his struggles. Timelily, Ashley MacLennan has a post up at FanGraphs today of which the front-page excerpt is, “Are we witnessing the historic collapse of the Detroit Tigers?” Not to be an asshole, but seeing an “is this the historic collapse of ____” post hits different when the franchise in question has won just one World Series in the last fifty years and contributed to baseball lore what the 2003 Detroit Tigers contributed to baseball lore. If things are going badly for you and you’re already the Tigers, things are going badly for you.
In other words, the Cubs better win this series, which means the Cubs better win tonight.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at just -130 to win and +110 to lose, implying only about a 55% shot at a victory. The over/under’s at nine and favors the under.
Cubs News:
Part of why the Cubs are at just -130 to win is that they are #stillbangedup. Arrieta’s back, and Nico Hoerner is hopefully back, but there are questions about the health of Kris Bryant, Javy Báez, and Jason Heyward, all while Ian Happ and Jake Marisnick are not back and not reportedly all that close to being back (Marisnick more than Happ, of course—Happ could surprise and be back rather soon). It’ll be interesting to see who gets demoted with Arrieta and Hoerner returning—Keegan Thompson and Jason Adam are the only relievers on the active roster with multiple options left, and the expectation is that the Cubs will drop two relievers to AAA. Bumping Brad Wieck or Justin Steele down would use up either’s last option, and I’m not sure Steele would be on the radar for a demotion right now anyway, with his 14.4 K/9 rate and his 1.83 xERA.
In lottery ticket news, the Cubs have picked up Adrian Sampson, he of the 5.82 career FIP over 153 career MLB innings. He pitched in Korea last year, making 25 starts with a 5.40 ERA and a 4.55 FIP.
Lastly, attendance can start rising at Wrigley, which got me a little emotional? I need to sleep more.
Cubs Thoughts:
It’ll be interesting to look at the numbers later this morning, but that -130 surprised me. Seems like the market’s down on the Cubs, probably justifiably to at least an extent. Arrieta’s issue was the cut on his thumb, unless I’ve missed some follow up, so one would guess that whether he’s healthy enough to pitch is fairly black and white—is the cut still there or is it gone. Regardless, Cubs are favorites and it would be a good night to break out of the little scoring slump (which hasn’t exactly been a hitting slump).
Around the Division:
The Reds went down 10-0 yesterday in Denver, rallied to make it 10-8, and ultimately lost 13-8. Kind of funny. The Pirates lost to the Giants, 3-1. The Cardinals beat the Brewers, 2-0, with Jack Flaherty improving to a wins-are-stupid-but-he’s-7-and-0 7-0 (his 2.47 ERA is not stupid, and him beating Corbin Burnes is fun baseball).
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 23-15, 38.6%
2. Milwaukee: 20-18, 42.0%
3. Cincinnati: 17-18, 10.1%
4. Cubs: 17-19, 9.1%
5. Pittsburgh: 15-22, 0.2%
The Cardinals start a series in San Diego tonight. The Brewers host Atlanta. Atlanta, for wild card watchers, is now even with the Giants in playoff probability, meaning I think we can take the Giants seriously since those two are roughly tied for sixth in the probability race (the Brewers and Cardinals are each at roughly 50/50, while the Dodgers, Padres, and Mets are all probably in—the Phillies come after Atlanta, followed by the Reds, Cubs, and Nationals).
Reasonable hope for the Cubs? Gain a game on the Cardinals this weekend. Slightly unreasonable hope? Gain two games.
