Whom:
Cubs vs. Atlanta
Where:
Atlanta
When:
6:10 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Beautiful. Temperatures falling into the 60’s as the game goes on, wind blowing in at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Zach Davies vs. Charlie Morton
The Opponent:
After his six-fWAR (!!) 2019, Morton took a step back in 2020, though it should be noted that he still managed a 3.45 FIP (his ERA jumped to 4.74 on the back of an absurd .355 BABIP). He’s a good pitcher. Not a lot else to say. He started striking batters out when he went to Houston in 2017 and he hasn’t stopped. Not as much of a ground ball guy as he used to be, but still on that end of things. Tough guy to hit.
Beyond that, Atlanta’s Atlanta. Ronald Acuña Jr. Freddie Freeman. Ozzie Albies. Marcell Ozuna. The bottom half of their order isn’t great, and they don’t have a ton of depth, but that’s a big best four hitters, and Morton’s tough.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +160 underdogs against -190 odds for the hosts, which comes out to about a 35% chance of a win. The over/under’s at eight right now and leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
Ryan Tepera’s suspension was reduced to two games, and he started it yesterday. He’ll be out again tonight but then he’s back.
Cubs Thoughts:
This is the worst matchup of the series. Davies has been struggling and Morton’s good. The upside of this is that if the Cubs steal a win, splitting the series (a reasonable goal) will be readily attainable, and the Cubs might even be able to win three of four. Don’t expect too much, but be excited if they do make it happen.
There’s a small wild card angle here. Atlanta’s scuffling, and if they aren’t it, the National League doesn’t have a clear fifth team, which could open the door to nearly everyone else for a backdoor playoff spot. “Everyone else” includes the Cubs, so regardless of what the Brewers do, a strong performance this week would have that added benefit in the playoff chase. Entering the set, the Cubs’ playoff probability, per FanGraphs, sits at 15.7%.
