1. Enjoy it.
The Cubs won last night. They beat a good pitcher. They got production from role players and stars alike. That’s fun.
2. Alec Mills might be good.
There are a lot of possible scenarios for how Alec Mills’s MLB career turns out, but the possibility that he’ll be a serviceable fourth or fifth starter and/or swingman for a long time is growing. His career FIP’s at 4.50, and he’s amassed 1.4 fWAR over 168 career innings, with many of those coming in relief and therefore demanding stronger performance (I think—my impression is that pitchers need a better FIP to get positive fWAR as a reliever than a starter because relievers’ jobs are easier thanks to not having to go through the order as many times, not having to eat as many innings more generally, etc.). That’s solid stuff. Clearly above replacement-level stuff. Hopefully he turns into a bit of a rock in the second half, even if it’s not a quality-start-every-game level of rock.
3. Is Patrick Wisdom worth trading?
Wisdom’s already 29, and projections on him still think he’ll probably be a league-average hitter the rest of the season (which is better than what he’s been since June 15th). The upside with him is that he could be your starting third baseman next year if Kris Bryant isn’t a Cub, that if he matches his career wRC+ (127 over 199 PA’s) he’ll be a solid middle-of-the-order bat before he starts to decline, and that you’ve got him incredibly cheap. He’s a bit of a lottery ticket, but at his age, his biggest contributions figure to come over the next few seasons, and if you can get a lottery ticket of comparable value who’s a little younger in return for him, that might be a swap you want to make. Maybe a back-line starting pitcher who hasn’t hit arbitration yet, or something of that sort. Just something to keep an eye on. Sell high and all that.
4. Kris Bryant and Javier Báez’s health remain questions.
There’s a scenario in which Bryant, Báez, and Anthony Rizzo are all too banged up for anyone to give anything reasonable for them in a trade. There’s a scenario within that scenario in which the Cubs trade one of them—maybe Bryant—and take a mediocre return but deem that better than the compensatory pick they’re guaranteed if they hold him through season’s end (because they will give him a qualifying offer, and he will not take the qualifying offer). There’s another scenario within that scenario in which they keep all three. If they do that, though, who moves? Do they package Willson Contreras with Jason Heyward to try to clear space for extensions? Package Heyward with Craig Kimbrel? Go ahead and just accept the compensatory pick as return enough for Bryant?
In the meantime, it sounds like Bryant might be completely fine, and it sounds like Báez should be back soon as well. A close eye will be kept, and the All-Star Break should be nice for Báez and Rizzo.
***
Around the Division:
The Brewers split their doubleheader with the Mets, with Josh Hader allowing a game-tying home run in the bottom of the last in the opener. The Reds beat the Royals to take that series and gain half a game in the division. The Cardinals lost to the Giants.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 52-36, 85.1%
2. Cincinnati: 45-41, 10.3%
3. Cubs: 43-44, 3.4%
4. St. Louis: 43-45, 1.2%
5. Pittsburgh: 32-54, 0.0%
The Brewers and Reds start a four-game set in Milwaukee tonight: Tyler Mahle against Adrian Houser. The Cardinals are traveling to Chicago.
Up Next:
Game 4. Going for the split.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Philadelphia
When:
7:05 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Cool. Temperatures in the 60’s, wind blowing in from left at ten to fifteen miles per hour. A bit humid, though, I believe.
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Zach Eflin
The Opponent:
A few weeks ago, I wrote that Eflin is good. Since I wrote that, he’s struggled a bit, posting a 5.54 FIP, but his starts have come in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Queens, and at home against the Padres, and he’s struck out fourteen while only walking three. Really, it’s been a home run problem (he allowed four to the Giants, that was the problem), and home runs are real but one bad night of them is different than prolonged bouts of meatballs. After being well over a 5.00 guy in all three of ERA, xERA, and FIP over his first 22 career starts, split evenly across 2016 and ’17, he’s turned into a solid arm for the Phils, and he’ll be tough to beat on a pitcher’s night at Wrigley.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are favorites, sitting at -112 against +102 for about a 51% implied win probability. The over/under’s at 7½ and favors the under.
Cubs News:
Jake Arrieta went on the injured list yesterday with a hamstring problem that might be a hamstring problem but also might be a “hamstring problem.” Cory Abbott was recalled to take his place.
Javy Báez was a late scratch with a jammed thumb.
Kris Bryant was removed midway through with some hamstring tightness of his own. If you want to get real weird, play this script in your head: Bryant’s out ‘til August, the market doesn’t materialize, the Cubs only sell Kimbrel and Andrew Chafin, and then the Brewers disintegrate and the Cubs pass the Reds on the last day of the season to make the playoffs, with Justin Steele turning into a reliable closer and Ryan Tepera returning as a lights-out setup man.
Cubs Thoughts:
That above scenario’s a long, long, long shot, but with a one in thirty chance of winning the division with current rosters, there’s at least some sort of chance that the Cubs rally and make the question a bit harder again. I don’t think that’ll happen, but I wouldn’t blame anyone for hoping. Per FanGraphs, which is rather aligned with the market today, there’s a 24.5% chance of the Cubs gaining a game on the Brewers tonight.
