1. There goes the season sweep.
I mean, 4-1’s pretty good. 4-3 would be pretty good. Hopefully the Cubs can win one more and make it 5-2 (or hell, 6-1 would be neat), but this is one of those “this bad result is a good time to appreciate the good results” bad results.
2. Ryan Tepera wasn’t going to be perfect.
The Cubs were underdogs when he entered, and to be further fair, the A.J. Pollock home run was kind of cheap (.290 xBA). He was also pitching the day after participating in a no-hitter. He’ll get a night off tonight and should be expected to be fine. 2.60 xERA. 3.01 FIP. Very good numbers. Expectations should remain high.
3. The Dodgers’ bullpen had to work.
Blake Treinen worked across two innings, throwing 22 pitches in his third outing in four days (the first, for what it’s worth, was only one pitch). David Price appeared for the second straight night, and while he didn’t throw many pitches, he also might be down this evening. Joe Kelly pitched across parts of two innings and threw for the third time in five days. Victor Gonzalez threw 21 pitches in his fourth outing of the last six days. And then you’ve got Jimmy Nelson and Kenley Jansen, each of whom might be out tomorrow if they have to throw tonight. So that’s a positive.
4. The Cubs’ offense is in the middle of the pack.
With the recent cold stretch, the Cubs are down to 16th in wRC+ on the season. That’s not as good as you want it to be, and while they’ve been facing good pitching (FanGraphs has the Cubs’ schedule as the easiest in all of baseball from here out), the bats probably need to be comfortably in the top ten for Bats & Bullpen to work. Given the market, it might be fair to ask if the Cubs should try to get another bat at the deadline instead of trying to find an ace. Maybe package Jason Heyward in there for a salary dump move and trade one of the surplus bench or bullpen guys? Maybe I’m too wishful, maybe I’m feeling too aggressive. Starting pitching should still be addressed if it can be done well.
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Around the Division:
The Rockies did a Rockies thing and the Brewers came back from four down to beat them in eleven. The Reds lost to Atlanta by a run. The Cardinals lost again to the Pirates, and call me mean but I don’t feel bad for them.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 43-33, 63.5%
2. Cubs: 42-34, 25.4%
3. Cincinnati: 37-37, 8.8%
4. St. Louis: 36-40, 2.2%
5. Pittsburgh: 28-46, 0.0%
It’s Adrian Houser vs. Antonio Senzatela today in Milwaukee. It’s Luis Castillo vs. Ian Anderson in Cincinnati. It’s Adam Wainwright vs. JT Brubaker in St. Louis. (I tweeted this the other day half-jokingly, but trading Wainwright would be smart for the Cardinals and the Cubs do need starting pitching…)
Up Next:
Game 3
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Los Angeles
When:
6:15 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Chavez Ravine
Weather:
Temperatures in the 70’s, wind gracefully blowing out towards left at about five miles per hour, and maybe more across than out by the game’s end.
Starting Pitchers:
Alec Mills vs. Julio Urías
The Opponent:
Urías, like every Dodger, is solid. 3.59 FIP, 3.79 xERA. Hard guy to hit. Doesn’t walk many batters.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +180 underdogs with the Dodgers at -200, so about a one-in-three chance of winning. Over/under’s at nine.
Cubs News:
First, the possibly bad stuff. Willson Contreras got hit on the hand by a pitcher I’m told not to name here. He stayed in the game and the word is that it isn’t broken, but it was 98 mph (I’m told to mention that said pitcher throws hard), so it might be a little swollen today.
Now, the great stuff. Dillon Maples, Justin Steele, and David Bote (remember when everyone said his arm was going to fall off?) are all approaching rehab assignments or beginning them already. Bote is interesting because he could force the Rafael Ortega/Eric Sogard/Sergio Alcántara DFA/option decision (it’s possible Alcántara has an option, I think the other two would have to be DFA’d), a decision that, if based on performance to date (xwOBA, specifically) would point towards sending Sogard to the waiver wire. Steele is interesting because if he pitches like he has at points, he could further bolster one of the best bullpens in baseball. Maples isn’t that interesting but we have nothing against him so he gets his own sentence too.
Cubs Thoughts:
I don’t hate the Cubs’ chances with Mills on the mound. His 33 innings have been 33 solid innings, taken cumulatively. I also don’t hate the Cubs’ chances with Adbert Alzolay going against Clayton Kershaw tomorrow. Just gotta find a way to win one. No real need to worry right now about the Brewers sweeping the Rockies.
