The thoughts on yesterday:
1. Javy! Javy! Javy! Javy!
Large, indeed.
2. Patrick! Patrick! Patrick!
The thing about small sample sizes is that if they’re good enough, they’ll still be good even if you strike out in your next ten at-bats. Or in the case of Patrick Wisdom—he of the three dingers in sixteen plate appearances, with a .674 wOBA and a .551 xwOBA and already half a WAR to his name—maybe a bit more than ten.
This applies to Kohl Stewart, too, but whether this is luck for the Cubs’ front office or brilliant roster-making, the contributions of this AAA depth guy have become intensely meaningful. He doesn’t need to stick around to have helped. But he also might stick around.
3. Kris Bryant’s MVP case continues.
Jacob deGrom might make this tough, and Bryant trails Nick Castellanos and Max Muncy in fWAR, but he’s already at 2.7 fWAR a third of the way into the season, and fWAR, as some have noted, doesn’t do a great job of accounting for the versatility aspect because it’s always comparing a player to a theoretical replacement rather than to the actual, day-to-day option behind him. It’s a great stat, but Bryant’s versatility has helped the Cubs more than fWAR can quantify.
4. Kohl Stewart looked *good.*
Five innings, no earned runs, only two K’s but just the one walk. Composed. Effective.
Stewart was the fourth overall pick out of high school. High school. Which means his upside was so high that the uncertainty, at least in the eyes of the Twins, was worth the risk. Debuting at 23 was reasonable. Struggling at times was also reasonable. He threw solid numbers of innings each year before last year, when he opted out because of concerns about his vulnerability as a person with Type 1 diabetes, so it isn’t like his health has been a huge concern. The concern has been getting the tools in place, and all of that goes to say that while you shouldn’t view this as a massive prospect debut, it’s also probably something more than just a reclamation project. 26 years old is young. Quite young.
We’ll see what the next start holds. And yes, the assumption is that there will be a few next starts.
5. What a win.
The Cubs climbed into first place. The Cubs won with their organization’s sixth or seventh starter. The Cubs won with five position players on the IL and their captain sidelined. The Cubs did all of that against probably the second or third-best team in baseball to open a series that in turn opens a crucial stretch for the short-term future of the franchise.
Stewart was gutsy. Javy Báez rose to the moment. Patrick Wisdom announced himself as a guy who can do things. This is, to date, the high-water mark for these Chicago Cubs.
***
Around the Division:
The Cardinals lost last night in Los Angeles, so yes, the Cubs are in first place as we enter June. The Brewers kept doing the winning, beating the Tigers in an extra inning, so they’re right back in the center of the mix, and Reds of course aren’t yet eliminated, beating the Phillies 11-1 yesterday in Wade Miley’s return.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Cubs: 30-23, 26.5%
2. St. Louis: 30-24, 23.9%
3. Milwaukee: 29-25, 43.9%
4. Cincinnati: 24-28, 5.8%
5. Pittsburgh: 20-33, 0.0%
It’s John Gant against David Price and the Dodgers’ bullpen tonight in Chavez Ravine. Eric Lauer starts for the Brewers opposite Matthew Boyd. Sonny Gray opposes Aaron Nola in Cincinnati.
Up Next:
Game 2
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. San Diego
When:
7:05 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Temperatures are expected to be in the low 60’s, with no precipitation and winds blowing in from the right field corner at about five miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Ryan Weathers
The Opponent:
Ryan Weathers is 21 years old and already getting close to 40 big-league innings pitched. He’s got a 1.31 ERA, and while his FIP’s at 3.73, his 4.71 xERA does give you a chance to take a breath. He’s probably good—he’s one of the top prospects in the Padres’ organization, and the Padres have a nice little organization over there. But he’s probably not going to be the rookie of the year.
He hasn’t been a traditional starter, serving as more of a swingman thus far. The most batters he’s faced is 20, which he did in Los Angeles in April in a game in which he allowed just one hit and one walk, and was thereby able to nearly finish the sixth. Beyond that one game, he’s yet to make it past four innings of work, so expect some bullpen usage from the visitors today.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -110 favorites, with the Padres at +100, so as narrow a favorite as a favorite can be, if you’re not working with a book that’s really digging in on pennies (which would be a smart thing for a book to do). The over/under’s at eight.
Cubs News:
I didn’t see anything big. We’ll see if there’s more closer to game time, including maybe an activation or an Anthony Rizzo start? A guy can dream.
Cubs Thoughts:
If we do see Jason Heyward or Jake Marisnick activated, one would imagine it would be Nick Martini heading to the minors, although the Cubs could also stick with thirteen position players, as is not uncommon, and send down a pitcher. The thing with that, though, is that it requires burning an option on Tommy Nance, Brad Wieck, Keegan Thompson, or Kohl Stewart (or, I suppose, Adbert Alzolay, but that would be stunning even if just for a day or two). If Alec Mills is activated, yes, maybe Wieck or Thompson goes down.
I haven’t seen any Shelby Miller trade news, or Tyson Miller trade news for that matter. Hopefully the Cubs can at least get something for each of them.
