We’ll start with the thoughts on yesterday’s game, but we’ll keep those short, because a lot has happened since we posted the preview yesterday morning:
1. Jake Arrieta is serviceable.
But merely that. This isn’t a surprise. This is what the Cubs knew they were getting. Arrieta is on this roster to eat innings, and for the most part, he’ll do that. Yesterday was an exception to even the innings-eating, but that’s a piece that shouldn’t be too much of a concern. The performance won’t be what we dream about from the old days, and that’s ok. That’s not his role, that’s not his contract, that’s not what he was signed to do.
2. The Cubs weren’t completely out of it.
Even down 5-0 entering the bottom of the eighth, the energy was one of a team that had a chance, and the Cubs made that chance fairly real, putting enough pressure on Cincinnati to bring in Tejay Antone for a four-out save. Hard to be too upset with that, especially at the tail end of a month of so many wins and so many competitive losses.
3. The Cubs still won that series.
That’s good. Hard to ask for more than that in May against anybody.
***
Around the Division:
Brandon Woodruff triumphed over Max Scherzer in Washington, pitching seven innings in a 3-0 victory. The Cardinals failed to sweep the Diamondbacks, falling 9-2, which means they actually lost the four-game set on the aggregate (baseball does not use the aggregate). The Pirates lost to the Rockies, 4-3.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 30-23, 28.8%
2. Cubs: 29-23, 24.1%
3. Milwaukee: 28-25, 41.8%
4. Cincinnati: 23-28, 5.2%
5. Pittsburgh: 20-32, 0.0%
The Reds host the Phillies this afternoon as Wade Miley returns from the IL. The Brewers host the Tigers, with Corbin Burnes on the mound. Jack Flaherty opposes Trevor Bauer in Los Angeles for the Cardinals.
Up Next:
The challenge kicks into high gear.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. San Diego
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Gorgeous. High 60’s, wind blowing out at around ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Kohl Stewart vs. Chris Paddack
The Opponent:
Paddack has been much more like his rookie self, he of the 3.33 ERA and 3.40 xERA and 3.95 FIP, than his 2020 self, he of the 4.73 ERA and 5.17 xERA and 5.02 FIP. His xERA entering today sits at 3.93, with his FIP at 3.42 and his ERA at 3.61. He’s been pitching well.
The Padres as a whole are fairly healthy right now. Trent Grisham is out today but is expected to return tomorrow. Austin Nola is on the IL, but Victor Caratini is a worthy platoon-mate (as the Cubs know well). Drew Pomeranz is out with a lat injury. But the Covid issues are well in the past, and the Padres enter Chicago on the healthy side of National League contenders.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +125 underdogs against a -150 line for the Padres, implying a little better than a 40% chance of a win. The over/under’s at 9½ and favors the over.
Cubs News:
Let’s go chronologically.
The Cubs DFA’d Tyson Miller, a low-upside but likely serviceable prospect who was on the back end of the starting pitching depth equation, which means they’re now actively trying to trade Shelby Miller and Tyson Miller before having to pass both through waivers if no deal gets done.
The DFA was done to make room on the 40-man roster for Sergio Alcántara, a similar prospect to Miller in terms of quality (probably won’t be a stud, probably will be serviceable in a small role) who plays the infield. Alcántara was picked up from the Tigers this offseason, and if I remember correctly he’s already successfully passed through waivers once, though he’s out of minor league options and so will likely only stick around as long as the Cubs need his body on the roster (if you’re doing head math, Rafael Ortega is also out of options, Nick Martini only has one option left, and P.J. Higgins and Patrick Wisdom each have the full three options, so maybe Martini goes down and Alcántara stays depending who comes back first and whether anyone else goes down before then).
The original impetus for this move, of course, was David Bote’s shoulder injury, which turned out to be a dislocation and not a separation, contradicting the original report. In more good news, the examination of Bote’s shoulder went about as well as one could have hoped for, given it was a dislocation. Good, good news. He’ll still be out a bit, but it sounds like we could see him back before the month’s over.
The hits don’t stop, though, and yesterday Trevor Williams underwent an appendectomy, so he is now out for at least a bit. Kohl Stewart’s getting the start today, and to be honest, trying that was on the table to begin with if Williams took a bad turn performance-wise. Stewart’s a former fourth overall pick. He’s only 26. His career hasn’t gone great, but that’s been more in the minors than at the big-league level, where he has a 4.79 ERA and a 4.80 FIP over 62 innings of work. He was a Twins prospect, the Cubs picked him up as a reclamation project, and he’s pitched well so far at AAA, with his lowest walk rate over this many innings ever in his minor league career, and with solid ERA and FIP numbers. Don’t expect him to become an ace, but this isn’t one of those times when the Cubs are trying to hold on for dear life. The hope is for five solid innings.
Finally, we do have a lineup for today, and it goes like this:
1. Joc Pederson (LF)
2. Kris Bryant (1B)
3. Javy Báez (SS)
4. Ian Happ (CF)
5. Willson Contreras (C)
6. Rafael Ortega (RF)
7. Patrick Wisdom (3B)
8. Eric Sogard (2B)
9. Kohl Stewart (P)
Still no Anthony Rizzo. Hopefully he can return soon. Hard to have him out, and hard to be playing with such a short bench, which today is just Higgins, Martini, and Alcántara unless Rizzo’s available to pinch hit, which is possible.
Cubs Thoughts:
For this series, at least, the Cubs don’t draw Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, or Joe Musgrove. That said, the pitchers they’re facing are good. Possibly better than Snell (keep an eye out for a “DID THE RAYS WIN THE BLAKE SNELL TRADE” post soon). Still, it’s going to be hard to win it, and winning it, while not a necessity, would be a great way to start off this difficult stretch (if ranking the difficulty of the series this month, this would probably be fourth, narrowly harder than the ones in San Francisco and Milwaukee but easier than the trips to Los Angeles, Queens, and San Diego).
Hopefully Stewart turns in a good outing, hopefully the bats can make enough happen, hopefully the Cubs can get through today and get one day closer to having their real lineup back together. But the longer this goes on, the more exhausted the guys who are healthy are going to get, and that’s especially hard with all these day games.
