1. Adbert Alzolay might be the Cubs’ ace.
Among Cubs starters, Alzolay has the best opponent wOBA, the best opponent xwOBA, the best strikeout rate, and the best walk rate (tied with Kyle Hendricks). He’s averaging more innings per outing than three of his four rotation counterparts. Going by age and experience, he should be improving at a faster rate than any of his rotation counterparts.
If the Cubs can make the playoffs this year, Alzolay will probably be a big reason why. As he goes, so may the Cubs go. And if they do get to October, don’t be surprised if the young right-hander is the first man up.
2. I don’t know how the Cubs should manage Adbert Alzolay’s innings.
On the one hand, Alzolay is a big piece of the future, and the Cubs should prioritize the protection of his arm over the protection of every other arm they have, both as a young pitcher and as a pitcher coming off a shortened season.
On the other, the Cubs need wins.
If it were up to me, I’d keep starting him every fifth time through for the time being. You can always rest him later. Right now, you need to stay afloat, and he’s one of three starters who’ve shown themselves capable of keeping you afloat.
3. The offense is fine as long as the pitcher isn’t good.
The Cubs have had to face Brandon Woodruff three times and Corbin Burnes once. Those two guys are among the best in the National League. They’ve also had to face Freddy Peralta and Ian Anderson a combined four times. Those guys are potentially going to be among the best in the National League (Peralta’s walks are still an issue, but he’s shown he can dominate even with those walks). If you take those eight games out of the equation, the Cubs are averaging 5.7 runs per game. In those eight games, of course, it’s 1.4 runs per game, but if you assume the Cubs will only face a top-twenty NL pitcher (and I’d offer that when this season is over all four of those guys might be better than top-twenty) in about a quarter of games, that comes out to 4.6 runs per game, which would currently be ninth in the major leagues.
In other words, it’s possible that some of the Cubs’ offensive struggles are simply due to facing excellent pitching. I’m not saying that’s definitely the case, but it might be.
Now, to backtrack a bit, the Cubs do spend this weekend dealing with Luis Castillo, who should be a top-twenty NL pitcher, and Wade Miley and Tyler Mahle, who’ve roughly been top-twenty NL pitchers to date (Miley’s only had four starts, so his fWAR’s a bit low, but his 3.50 FIP would be right on the edge were he above the qualifying innings threshold). And then they face the Dodgers. But next weekend’s series? Against the Pirates? Could be awesome.
4. Appreciating April’s best.
Alzolay, Jake Arrieta, and Trevor Williams have all exceeded expectations, even if Alzolay hasn’t always gotten the deserved results. Craig Kimbrel’s been phenomenal. Nico Hoerner’s made big contributions (173 wRC+) in his 31 plate appearances. Kris Bryant is on an 8.4 fWAR pace. Jake Marisnick (133 wRC+) and Matt Duffy (123 wRC+) are raking and helping fill the gap created by either hard-luck or out-of-sorts David Bote, Ian Happ, and Joc Pederson. (Remember that guy?) Willson Contreras has a WPA (win probability added) of 0.55 (second on the team behind Kimbrel’s 1.20 [!!]). Some of this is good luck. Marisnick only has a .302 xwOBA. Trevor Williams is allowing a .361 xwOBA. But not all of it. Bryant, through one month, has played like an MVP candidate once more. Hoerner has been magnificent. Kimbrel, again, has been legitimately phenomenal. Alzolay offers some much-needed hope for the rotation, and if Arrieta and Williams can keep making it happen and pitching like savvy veterans (which was the best case for Arrieta, at least, entering the season), suddenly the Cubs might have an at-least-adequate pitching staff.
5. The Cubs didn’t get swept.
Maybe the biggest takeaway from last night is that the Cubs avoided the sweep at a time when avoiding the sweep was necessary. The ship may not be upright. But it’s afloat.
***
Around the Division:
Eric Lauer outdueled Trevor Bauer and the Brewers beat the Dodgers, 2-1. The Cardinals went to extras with the Phillies and won in ten, 4-3. Today, the Brewers continue their set with the Dodgers, the Cardinals start a series in Pittsburgh, and the Reds—well, they welcome the Cubs to town.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee (15-10, 59.8%)
2. St. Louis (13-12, 18.2%)
3. Pittsburgh (12-12, 0.8%)
4. Cincinnati (11-13, 12.6%)
5. Cubs (11-14, 8.6%)
Of note: Corbin Burnes is on the injured list, with the suspicion being that he’s tested positive for the coronavirus since no injury is listed.
Up Next:
Cincinnati.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Where:
Cincinnati
When:
6:10 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures dropping through the 50’s as the game goes on. Clear skies. Wind blowing out to right-center at ten to fifteen miles per hour, but decreasing as the game goes on.
Starting Pitchers:
Jake Arrieta vs. Wade Miley
The Opponent:
Miley, as mentioned above, has pitched well so far this year. He’s got a 2.45 ERA, a 3.50 FIP, and a .322 xwOBA. Which basically means, he’s gotten some good luck, but he’s probably been a little above-average. Now 34, the lefty is in his second season in Cincinnati, which is the seventh team to give him a major league uniform.
The Reds have had a streaky start to the year. Out of the gate, they established themselves as something of a division contender, winning six of their first seven, but they struggled on a trip out west, then lost seven in a row back in the heartland. They did just steal two of three in Los Angeles, so they enter the series riding that high, but overall, they’re just slightly closer to the good side of mediocre than the Cubs are.
The Numbers:
The market has the Cubs as +110 underdogs, with the Reds at -130 on the moneyline. So we’re looking at roughly a 45% chance of a Cubs win. Over/under’s at nine, leans towards the under, and I might have to take a look at that given the wind in Cincinnati and the prospect that both Arrieta and Miley may have been a little lucky so far (also, both teams are relatively healthy).
Cubs News:
Nothing too noteworthy that I saw.
Cubs Thoughts:
It’s going to be a tough series to win, and there isn’t a lot of reason for confidence tomorrow especially, with Zach Davies squaring off against Luis Castillo. Hopefully Arrieta does more of what he’s been doing when he’s been at his best, because winning tonight would take the sweep out of the equation again.
