My dad’s a Packers fan. I’m a Packers fan too, though they aren’t my highest priority. After the 2011 Super Bowl, I thought the Packers were embarking on a dynastic run. They had one of the best quarterbacks in the league. They’d had one of the best defenses in football that year. They were young, talented, and seemingly a well-run organization.
The dynasty never happened.
I’ve been feeling similarly this week regarding the Cubs. After 2016, the possibilities seemed endless. That team was just so good. But then, like the Packers, they couldn’t get through the postseason. Then, like the Packers, they saw better teams emerge. Then, like the Packers, the inconceivable began happening—they began losing their own division to teams that just couldn’t be better…but were. And now, like the Packers, there is a legitimate fear that the window is not closing, but is already closed.
The window might not be closed, of course. There is a boatload of talent on the roster: hitters who have produced before, pitchers who are producing now. The front office is proven. Baseball’s enough of a crapshoot and the 2020 National League is so underwhelming that it wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest if the Dodgers and Padres slipped up, the Cubs snuck through the first two rounds, and we found ourselves in an NLCS in which Yu Darvish & Co. were the favorites.
But for now, following a lifeless showing in Pittsburgh, things look bleak. FanGraphs has the Cubs’ World Series probability—which peaked at 6.7% in mid-August and was routinely beyond the 20% threshold back in 2016 with much the same lineup, only younger and supposedly on the come-up—at 4.0%. The Reds are at 5.3%, one of eleven major league teams with a better chance than the Cubs in October.
And yet…
While the lineup has only four hitters above league-average (as measured by wRC+), the talent keeps you hooked. What if Kris Bryant gets healthy? What if Javy Báez turns it around? What if Kyle Schwarber hits like he did on Monday? The pitching staff is by no means elite, but Yu Darvish is one of the best, Kyle Hendricks would be many teams’ ace, and Jon Lester’s been good over his last three starts after really scuffling for a while there. The bullpen has climbed to 15th in FIP, and since August 8th has somehow managed the best FIP in baseball. Maybe the Reds and Brewers and Cardinals are good. Maybe Victor Caratini or David Bote will play outside himself in October. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe.
The possibilities are there. Which makes it all the more frustrating.
As far as this weekend goes, winning the series would provide a jolt of confidence. Beyond the natural rivarly, the White Sox are a good team with a lot to play for. Winning the series may also be necessary to win the division. The Cubs have played themselves into a boat in which if the Cardinals win out, the Cubs will also need to win out, and while it’s unlikely that the Cardinals will win out (depending how you assess that potential doubleheader with the Tigers Monday, a 4-2 or 3-3 finish is most likely), that’s still a disappointing place to be for a team that was four and a half games ahead early this week.
The time for playoff urgency has arrived. There may be a breather Sunday, but for now, it’s urgency time. David Ross was supposed to be the manager of urgency, after last year’s year of urgency failed to instill enough urgency to make the playoffs (or perhaps paradoxically led to the team pressing and missing the playoffs). This weekend’s a test for that urgency. Next week’s a test for that championship window. But on the whole of it, like the Packers, the Cubs are just another good team with a pretty narrow shot at doing much in the postseason. That’s where things have landed.
