As of this morning, FanGraphs no longer projects the Chicago Cubs as the favorite to win the NL Central. Their chances—41.7%—are lower than those of the Cardinals. The last time this was the case was May 2nd, which was also the last time the Cubs’ division championship chances were listed as lower than 42%.
What’s gone wrong?
Plenty of things.
Most frustratingly, the Cubs’ bullpen has disintegrated even as weapons have been added. Prior to Craig Kimbrel’s debut, Cubs relievers had a 3.90 ERA, seventh best in the MLB, and a 4.35 FIP, which ranked 14th. In the two months since, they have a 4.59 ERA, 17th in the MLB, and a 4.90 FIP, 22nd.
There are also injuries: Willson Contreras has spent two stints on the injured list since July began. Cole Hamels missed more than a month. Kimbrel, Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler, and Pedro Strop have all endured the IL. Javy Báez dealt with, and might still be dealing with, a foot injury. Jason Heyward has missed time. Kris Bryant has dealt with a sore knee. Anthony Rizzo’s back issues have flared up.
In some combination of a result of this and a coincidentally correlated event, the offense has slumped. A 102 wRC+ entering the All-Star Break has been followed with a 93 in the metric since play resumed. Báez has especially struggled relative to his normal performance, with a wRC+ of 95 since he first hurt his heel after a 140 up through the game—in May—in which the injury occurred.
The list of issues goes on (we haven’t discussed, for instance, the August of one Jon Lester, or the travails and tribulations on the road). But they aren’t particular to the Cubs—every team deals with injuries and slumps, and every team has players whose nagging pains never even reach the ears of the media. On paper, the Cubs’ roster would seem to be in a reasonably strong place, with Contreras on the IL and Rizzo banged up but the rest of the core contributors healthy enough that we aren’t hearing about their health.
The real question, then, for now anyway, is not what’s gone wrong, but what the next five weeks look like.
Beginning today, the Cubs play 32 games in 35 days, with no game today and scheduled off days next Wednesday and on Monday, September 23rd. The Cardinals will play 33 games across the same span, with scheduled off days this Thursday; Monday, September 9th; and Thursday, September 26th; plus a doubleheader against Cincinnati on Sunday. The Cardinals have 16 road games remaining. The Cubs have 17. The Cardinals make brief trips to Colorado and Arizona. The Cubs make a brief trip to San Diego. The Cubs have to play the Mets in Queens this week. The Cardinals have to host the Nationals for a set in September. The teams play each other seven times, all in the season’s final week and a half, with four in Chicago and three in St. Louis.
All told, the schedules are similar, with the Cubs having a slightly easier slate in that they make only one trip west of Missouri and get to play the Pirates three more times than the Cardinals do. To win the division, the Cubs will have to make up a two or three game deficit beginning tomorrow (the exact margin depends on the result of tonight’s game) while holding off the Brewers, whom FanGraphs gives a 7.6% chance of taking the division and sit two games back of the Cubs entering the week.
It is, of course, possible, somewhere in between the likelihood of flipping heads on a coin and rolling a five or six on a single di. Because they play the Cardinals seven times, it’s even possible for the Cubs to win the division if the Cardinals somehow continue the torrid pace they’ve maintained since August 9th, when they began their current 13-3 stretch. They control their fate. But the challenge is there, and the known and unknown nagging injuries are concerning. In the immediate term, facing Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom in the next three games is far from ideal. But so it goes, and if the prospect of playing a team two games back in the wild card chase on the road is intimidating, the playoffs probably aren’t for you.
If the Cubs can’t capture the division, they have a solid chance to hold onto a wild card spot: 41.7% in the event they don’t win the division, according to FanGraphs. Combined, their odds of making the playoffs in some fashion are 66.1%. But to capture the wild card spot, they’d likely have to hold off all three of the Brewers, Mets, and Phillies, each of whom sits within two games of the Cubs. The Nationals, four games up in the race to be the wild card home team, not only have the lead but are objectively probably the second or third best team in the National League, behind the Dodgers and possibly the Braves (the Nationals have dealt with effects of injuries that dwarf those of the Cubs, which is a large part of why projection systems have them in the vicinity of Atlanta despite trailing their division-mate by six games).
If the Cubs do wind up in a wild card spot, though, the road to a World Series berth will be much more difficult than it would be as a division champion. In addition to having to win a wild card game, likely on the road, likely against Max Scherzer, the Cubs would have to take out the Dodgers in a five-game series while presumably starting from behind in terms of starting pitching, having used their top option in the wild card game. If they win the division, the road is still difficult, beginning with a best-of-five set against the Braves without home field advantage, but the absence of a do-or-die game out of the gate and the possibility of someone, more likely the Nationals than anyone else, taking care of the Dodgers combine to make a plausible and optimistic scenario.
There’s also, though, the matter of rest. It’s possible I only hear about this to the degree I do because I follow them more closely than any other team, but the comments made by people throughout the organization (not to mention opponents) following last year’s disappointing ending suggest the Cubs would benefit from clinching the division with a few days to spare, perhaps most significantly in a psychological sense. Whether they need the physical rest or not, they seem to think they need it. But clinching early is a much longer shot than the 41.7% chance they win the division.
One noteworthy thing about playoff probabilities is how variant they become as the season’s end draws closer. While early results might move the needle one or two percent in magnitude, wins and losses at this point in the season can swing things almost ten percent in either direction. Which means that while all games count the same in the standings, the Cubs are at a point where they have more to win and lose from each upcoming game than they have at any point previously. And that weight will do one of three things: It could decrease because the Cubs miss their opportunity, falling out of the race. It could decrease because the Cubs seize their opportunity, blowing past the Cardinals and taking care of things early. Or it could increase. One of those will happen. All three are possible. Buckle up.
