1. It is so nice to have that bullpen.
The Cubs’ relievers now have the second-highest fWAR in baseball, and their ERA is the best by a decent margin (17 points to 2nd place, 51 points to 3rd). They’re due for some regression, but it’s this kind of regression:
- Craig Kimbrel: 0.61 ERA, 1.72 xERA, 1.18 FIP
- Andrew Chafin: 1.72 ERA, 2.48 xERA, 2.78 FIP
- Ryan Tepera: 2.02 ERA, 2.40 xERA, 2.49 FIP
If all three of those guys drop to the worse of their xERA and FIP, that’s still a rocking back end. And meanwhile, Brad Wieck’s got a 1.71 FIP and five other guys (Brothers/Nance/Ryan/Winkler/Steele) are all under 4.00 in FIP and that’s suddenly a full roster of competent relievers even if you’re carrying 14 pitchers.
2. Kyle Hendricks got it done again.
Hendricks’s FIP and xERA (5.09, 5.12) are still concerning, and he got away with a few that were smoked yesterday, but that’s two straight starts in which the single-game FIP was under 2.00 now, and the twelve strikeouts to two walks over those two outings is a happy ratio.
Given Hendricks’s history of success, I’m not terribly concerned by the xERA and FIP. We don’t have single-game xERA, but those two single-game FIP’s do make me feel better about him. Which is great, because the Cubs need to feel good about something in the rotation.
3. What offensive problems?
Ok, so it was just one game, and they only scored seven, but the power display, the ending of that dumb Kris Bryant extra-base-hitless streak, and that little sixth-inning rally to bust the game open were all reassuring. The Cubs are now 12-10 over the stretch that started Memorial Day, with the only real complaint that they weren’t able to take two from the Marlins. Win four of these next seven (you know, like a postseason series) and they hit the halfway point 45-36, right where we hoped they’d be.
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Around the Division:
The Reds blew a five-run lead and then pulled it out in Minneapolis, saving us from feeling bad for the Reds, who are far more likable than the Brewers and Cardinals, Amir Garrett beef and all. The Cardinals got beat up by the Tigers, with an error-driven six-run fourth inning burying them. The Brewers shut out the Diamondbacks as Freddy Peralta went six. Among qualified starters, a strong sample by definition (the 63 dudes right now who’ve been good enough and healthy enough to throw the most innings), Peralta has the seventh-worst walk rate, the fourth-best strikeout rate, and the second-best opponent batting average, while also having the fourth-best xERA and the tenth-best FIP. He is managing the walk thing very well. Maybe the Cubs can kidnap him.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
T-1. Milwaukee: 41-33, 57.1%
T-1. Cubs: 41-33, 26.8%
3. Cincinnati: 36-36, 10.2%
4. St. Louis: 36-37, 5.9%
5. Pittsburgh: 26-45, 0.0%
Brandon Woodruff goes for the Brewers today against Caleb Smith in Phoenix. John Gant tries to top big-deal-prospect Matt Manning in Detroit. Reds, like the Cubs, are off.
Up Next:
Los Angeles
Cubs News:
Robert Stock was claimed off waivers by the Mets yesterday, so he’s gone. The rotation is supposed to proceed normally over the weekend, and with Trevor Bauer pitching for the Dodgers tonight, it currently looks like the matchups will be:
Thursday: Zach Davies vs. Walker Buehler
Friday: Jake Arrieta vs. Tony Gonsolin
Saturday: Alec Mills vs. Julio Urías
Sunday: Adbert Alzolay vs. Clayton Kershaw
Kershaw’s been the best of those four this year, and Gonsolin isn’t stretched out too well, so if the goal is to maximize your minimum win probability, this works out well for the Cubs, and if the goal is to maximize your maximum win probability, this is the worst it could line up, with the best Cubs pitcher of the series facing the best Dodgers pitcher, the worst Cubs pitcher facing the worst Dodgers pitcher, and so on for the two games in between. Hopefully Davies can hand the bullpen a tie tomorrow night and the Cubs can grab some space to make a thing happen over the weekend.
Cubs Thoughts:
The Brewers host the Rockies this weekend, so it’s unlikely that the Cubs will finish the weekend in first place. That said, if they can find a way to split and the Brewers even lose one of these next four (they’re off tomorrow), then winning that set next week ends the month with a tie atop the Central. That’s a solid place to be as the tail end of this stretch approaches.
Something that isn’t getting a ton of attention: Patrick Wisdom would be playing less if Nico Hoerner was healthy. And I’m not sure he would have come up to begin with had Hoerner, David Bote, and Matt Duffy not gone down. This isn’t to say injuries are a good thing. They’re not. But for those trying to play the “the Cubs are banged up” angle, beyond lacking perspective (many teams have had it worse), that angle also ignores the fact that the Cubs’ fifth-most valuable player (despite having just 81 PA’s) would not be on the roster were it not for these injuries.
